Impact Analysis: Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

June 27, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Ilan Mochari
Edited by Tim Heaney

In each of the last 11 seasons, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim outfielder Vladimir Guerrero has belted at least 25 home runs and batted at least .303. This year, though, he is irreparably behind his distinguished standards. After 35 games, Guerrero is batting just .277 with two home runs.

Is he on the downside as an older player with slower bat speed? Is he merely struggling in the first half, as he did in 2008 and 2006? Is he seeing fewer fastballs, now that Angels outfielder Torii Hunter is batting ahead of him instead of behind him? Is he still recovering from the right pectoral injury that sidelined him for 35 games?

Scouting report

Always a free swinger, Guerrero is swinging at a whopping 65.2 percent of pitches - easily his highest rate in the last eight seasons. In addition, Guerrero is missing more pitches: His contact rate on swings at pitches in the zone (86.3 percent) is his lowest since 2002, and his rate on hacks at pitches outside the strike zone (61.8 percent) is at its lowest since 2004.

All this swinging and missing partially explains Guerrero's lofty percentage of first-pitch strikes (68.5). If he had enough at-bats to qualify, Guerrero would rank among the league leaders in this category.

In the previous eight seasons, his rate of first-pitch strikes was never higher than 62.8 (2004). Though Guerrero may be taking some of these initial pitches in the zone, he is still falling behind in counts - giving him less wiggle room, as a free swinger, to gamble on upcoming pitches.

Especially disconcerting are his .227 average on 0-1 counts and his .264 average after 0-1 counts. In 2008, Guerrero batted .478 on 0-1 counts and .303 after 0-1 counts. In other words, Guerrero is falling behind 0-1 more than ever, but its effect on him seems worse than it would have been in previous seasons.

More negatives

Guerrero's problem is not merely his swing itself - it is also WHEN he swings. For example, Guerrero's base-on-balls percentage is a paltry 3.5 - easily the lowest of his career.

Even in his first and second seasons with the Montreal Expos, Guerrero walked more frequently (5.5 percent in 1997, 6.3 in 1998) than he does now. Moreover, this is a statistic that shows no sign of changing: In his last 19 games, Guerrero has only one base on balls.

Silver lining

Not all the signs are negative. Guerrero's 1.20 groundball-to-flyball ratio is within his career norms. However, his line-drive percentage (15.1) is well below his 19.1 career mark. That being said, it's not as if a 15.1 line-drive percentage is a death knell. In 2007, when Guerrero delivered a perfectly competent .324-27-89 campaign with a .950 OPS, his line-drive percentage was 15.6.

Still, there's no gainsaying the fact that Guerrero is not getting good wood on the ball. One key difference between his peripherals this year and in 2007 is his home run-to-flyball ratio. In 2007, despite his low line-drive rate, Guerrero maintained a 14.5 home run-to-flyball ratio - one of the worst of his career, but still ample enough to drill 27 home runs and slug .547. This season, Guerrero's home run-to-flyball ratio is a woeful 4.3 - radically below his career figure (17.2) and a drastic falloff from his 2007 mark. 

Guerrero's weight - listed at 235 pounds - has not reportedly been an issue, but it is easy to forget the fact that he had offseason surgery on both knees: a repair of the medial meniscus in his left and a cleanup of scar tissue and debris in his right. There were reports in January that, if anything, Guerrero had trimmed down during his recovery from the surgeries.

It is also important to remember that Guerrero had only eight regular season games under his belt when he tore his right pectoral. His at-bats in late May and early June amount to what, in previous seasons, would have been his April warm-up. Already set back because of his offseason knee surgeries - so much so that the Angels blocked him from playing in the World Baseball Classic - Guerrero may still be recovering his swing and timing from the loss of April at-bats.

Opposite field repels

Other statistics - in addition to the obvious absence of power - support the notion that the pectoral injury is affecting Guerrero's swing.

Typically, Guerrero excels at hitting balls to the opposite field (right field, in his case). This season, Guerrero is batting only .250 to the opposite field, compared to his stellar opposite-field averages in 2008 (.356) and 2007 (.362).

Though any hindrance of bat speed or upper-body injury typically results in hitting more balls the opposite way (with the hitter being late on pitches), Vlad hasn't shown comfort in using the whole field effectively.

Nevertheless, Guerrero has raised his average from .222 to .277 and his OPS from .588 to .673 since his May 25 return, including a stretch from May 30 to June 20 in which he registered a hit in 17 out of 19 games. All of which seems satisfactory, until you realize the 34-year-old Guerrero's numbers remain substantially below his career marks in batting average (.322) and OPS (.958).

These figures are especially troubling in light of Guerrero's .310 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That is slightly below his career mark (.322) but hardly a sign of ill fortune. In other words, Guerrero's low numbers have less to do with bad luck than his owners are hoping for.

Good Will Hunter

Former Angels first baseman Mark Teixeira, the No. 3 hitter after his acquisition last year, is now playing with the New York Yankees. Angels outfielder Torii Hunter started the season fifth in the lineup - where he batted behind Guerrero, most of last season - but moved up to third. Now hitting ahead of Guerrero, Hunter is on a pace to post the best season of his career. Guerrero is struggling, and it is not far-fetched to attribute some of that to the absence of an offensive threat batting behind him.

However, there is no significant difference in the types of pitches Guerrero is facing this year. It's not as if he is seeing fewer fastballs, as opposing hurlers unabashedly pitch around him to face outfielder Juan Rivera. In fact, the percentage of strike zone pitches Guerrero has faced this season (44.6) is the highest total he has faced since 2006 (46.0).

The percentage of fastballs Guerrero has faced (55.6) is also comparable to last season (56.2). As commonsensical as it would be to ascribe some of Guerrero's falloff to Teixeira's absence and Hunter's ascension in the order, the numbers do not back it up. Moreover, Rivera himself is on pace to have his best season since 2006, raking at a .306/.351./.504 clip.

Also, some data supports the notion that starting pitchers are less afraid to challenge the recuperating Guerrero. This season, Guerrero is batting .261 in his third at-bat against the opposing starters. By contrast, in 2008, Guerrero batted .325 in his third at-bat against opposing starters. In 2007, Guerrero batted .311 in that situation.

The solution?

A right pectoral injury could significantly impact his long, looping, arms-extended, right-handed swing. (A compact swing, it is not.) Indeed, on June 15 Scioscia told the Los Angeles Times, "We're trying to get him to cut down some on his swing." 

Guerrero has tried adjustments in sessions with Angels hitting coach Mickey Hatcher and manager Mike Scioscia. After the Wednesday, June 25, game versus the Colorado Rockies, Guerrero remarked, "We looked at some video before the game. I could see that my hands were too high. I've never hit with my hands that high before."

As it happens, Guerrero broke a 28-game home run drought in this very same game, clubbing only his second dinger of the season. He had gone 0-for-12 in his previous three contests.

If the injury were completely healed, Guerrero (with his powerful right arm) would probably have logged a game or two in right field by now. As it happens, he only just began an every-other-day throwing program June 16; the Angels have yet to announce a date when he will again roam the outfield.

In fact, Guerrero will reportedly be limited to pinch-hitting duties this weekend, while the Angels visit the Arizona Diamondbacks and therefore play without a designated hitter. 

Fantasy baseball outlook

Is Guerrero a buy-low candidate? In 2008, his second-half OPS (.972) dwarfed his first-half figure (.831). Likewise, in 2006, Guerrero's dominant second half (1.047) erased the memory of a pedestrian pre-All-Star break. In other words, there is plenty of recent historical precedent to indicate Guerrero can rally and have a terrific second half.

He has identified a potential flaw in his swing. When a seasoned player like Guerrero pinpoints a problem, you should be more confident that he will be able to figure things out.

Mind you, Guerrero has a powerful brand name. This, along with his signs of life in Thursday's game, can complicate the act of buying low.

Already without speed, Guerrero loses significant value as a fantasy outfielder without regaining his consistent power. The same deflation that has occurred with Detroit Tigers outfielder Magglio Ordonez (three home runs in 226 at-bats) could afflict Guerrero, rendering him one of the biggest headaches you can have on a fantasy roster: a player performing too poorly to help you win games, yet with too much of a track record to drop or trade for value in other categories.

Assess your team's offensive situation when either pursuing or receiving offers involving Guerrero. If you receive a great offer for Vlad that helps you in multiple areas, you should consider accepting if you feel your team is shored up on offense. Be careful, though, of an opposing owner trying to buy low, which may be a good idea for you power-starved owners.

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Ilan Mochari
Ilan Mochari has been a KFFL contributor since 2007.

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