Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Fantasy football: Point-per-reception perception

September 10, 2009 @ 03:36:49

By Tim Heaney
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

The security of running backs in fantasy football took a Ray Lewis-sized hit last season. Wide receivers' fantasy stocks and average draft positions (ADPs) have spiked with the increasing number of backfield committees and wildcat formations sweeping through NFL playbooks.

Are stud running backs a thing of the past?

This tremor may be felt more in the tectonic plates of point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. A common argument says the extra point in these setups that comes with every catch unquestionably increases the value of the top receivers, meaning you should build up your wideouts early in these drafts or for more money in these auctions.

Wait, if all receptions are worth a point in PPR leagues, doesn't that mean you could spend late picks or place some value bids on high-upside wideouts? We at KFFL.com thought this was an infallible strategy for many years.

Consider this our recognition of, and adaptation to, a paradigm shift in the worlds of fantasy and reality football. Oh, and while you're at it, sound the trumpets of the Four Horsemen.

As the end of the first round approaches in PPRs, there is more of a debate between whether to take a near-elite running back or an elite wideout.

How deep does this run, though? Does this mean you take the Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald in the top five?

Holy shift

Wide receivers are gaining ground

This receiver-friendly fantasy trend has gone on for the last few years in small doses. In 2008, receivers' values jumped out of the shadows and mugged many of us.

Though this could only explain a part of the reason, maybe offensive coordinators have learned to better manipulate the tightened illegal contact penalty on defensive backs (the "Ty Law Rule") after the 2003 playoffs. Surely, freer-flowing passing attacks - and as a result, more receptions - stem from looser coverage.

In PPR, the biggest receptions totals rest in a very restrictive class. Few receivers top 100 catches in a season, meaning the values of those that accomplish the feat may be slightly inflated the following year.

How does this affect the spectrum of wideout production?

Table 1: Receivers who reached 80 receptions, 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns, 2006-08

Year	1,000 yds	80-rec	8-TD
2008	21	14	9
2007	20	17	16
2006	19	15	14

The yardage trend isn't surprising, but the decreases in the reception and touchdown category means that frequently scoring wideouts may be turning into more prominent premium commodities. Drafting the top-rated receivers would seem like more of a priority if the "elite" number continues to decline.

This also means, though, that the waiver wire holds many options for fill-ins for your No. 3 or bench wideouts. More diversity in playcalling means more receivers continue to be valuable PPR options in late rounds or as free agents.

The rub: Though a bigger portion of the player pool is seeing an increase in production, the divergence between point-scoring tiers is top heavy.

Breakdown

Anyway, back to fantasy: In 2008, many of the cream of the running back crop, in terms of total points scored, didn't come from first-round selections:

Table 2: Top 10 running backs' point output in standard PPR scoring leagues, 2008

Rk	Player	Team	G	TOT Pts	Rec/G	TOT TD/G
1	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	16	294.00	1.38	1.25
2	Matt Forte	CHI	16	292.00	4.00	0.75
3	Michael Turner	ATL	16	275.00	0.38	1.06
4	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	16	269.00	3.88	0.88
5	Brian Westbrook	PHI	14	265.00	3.86	1.00
6	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	16	264.00	3.25	0.75
7	Steve Slaton	HOU	16	264.00	3.13	0.63
8	Thomas Jones	NYJ	16	263.00	2.25	0.94
9	Adrian Peterson	MIN	16	256.00	1.31	0.63
10	Clinton Portis	WAS	16	239.00	1.75	0.56

It's hard to think Williams, Forte, Turner, Jones-Drew, Slaton and Jones fell in the first round or early second round last draft season. Peterson, Tomlinson and Westbrook were likely top-five picks, on average, with Portis often being taken at the end of the first.

Table 3: Top 10 wide receivers' point output in standard PPR scoring leagues, 2008

Rk	Player	Team	G	TOT Pts	Rec/G	TOT TD/G
1	Andre Johnson	HOU	16	312.00	7.19	0.50
2	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	16	306.00	6.00	0.75
3	Calvin Johnson	DET	16	278.00	4.88	0.75
4	Roddy White	ATL	16	262.00	5.50	0.44
5	Anquan Boldin	ARI	12	258.00	7.42	0.92
6	Brandon Marshall	DEN	15	257.00	6.93	0.40
7	Greg Jennings	GB	16	256.00	5.00	0.56
8	Steve Smith	CAR	16	251.00	5.57	0.43
9	Antonio Bryant	TB	16	243.00	5.25	0.44
10	Wes Welker	NE	16	240.00	7.00	0.19

Fitzgerald and the Texans' Johnson were the most likely first-round selections of this group, but they probably came at the end of the first stanza, on average.

The fact that many of the top-performing running backs were probably obtained after the first six picks gives the top wide receivers a better leg to stand on. Speculating on running backs performing above their draft value is easier than doing the same for wideouts.

More observations:

Notice the disparity. When you combine the two positions, the top two receivers also have the top total point outputs. The top two backs rank third and fourth. The remaining breakdown within each position doesn't declare a clear winner.
Per-game touchdown averages for running backs dwarf those of wide receivers, as expected, but six-pointers are harder to project. Basic football knowledge, though, dictates running backs have more chances to score per game.

That second notion is a classic Captain Obvious dictum, but it's so easy to forget.

What do the 2007 standings say?

Table 4: Top 10 running backs' point output in standard PPR scoring leagues, 2007

Rk	Player	Team	G	TOT Pts	Rec/G	TOT TD/G
1	Brian Westbrook	PHI	15	361.00	6.00	0.80
2	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	16	353.00	3.75	1.19
3	Clinton Portis	WAS	16	267.00	2.94	0.75
4	Joseph Addai	IND	15	263.00	2.73	1.00
5	Adrian Peterson	MIN	14	247.00	1.36	0.93
6	Jamal Lewis	CLE	15	241.00	2.00	0.73
7	Marion Barber III	DAL	16	231.00	2.75	0.75
8	Frank Gore	SF	15	229.00	3.53	0.40
9	Willis McGahee	BAL	15	223.00	2.87	0.53
10	Earnest Graham	TB	15	218.00	3.27	0.67

Here are the wide receivers:

Table 5: Top 10 wide receivers' point output in standard PPR scoring leagues, 2007

Rk	Player	Team	G	TOT Pts	Rec/G	TOT TD/G
1	Randy Moss	NE	16	378.00	6.13	1.44
2	Reggie Wayne	IND	16	308.00	6.50	0.63
3	Terrell Owens	DAL	15	299.00	5.40	1.00
4	Braylon Edwards	CLE	16	296.00	5.00	1.00
5	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	15	295.00	6.73	0.67
6	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	16	293.00	7.00	0.75
7	Chad Ochocinco	CIN	16	280.00	5.81	0.50
8	Marques Colston	NO	16	276.00	6.13	0.69
9	Brandon Marshall	DEN	16	274.00	6.38	0.44
10	Wes Welker	NE	16	270.00	7.00	0.50

More observations:

Bigger disparity between running backs than wideouts, with the receivers dominating the combined positional rankings in total points.
Randy Moss' fluky year skews the receiver picture, and the deviation in wideouts is less prominent than in 2008.

Fantasy football outlook

In PPR leagues, running backs are less of a sure thing for late first-round production. Their ability to contribute in the ground and air games, however, still gives them more opportunities to outperform their vertical counterparts.

Even with injuries and time splits, running backs' degree of bust potential remains much lower than wideouts if taken in the top half of the first round, meaning you should still go with a running back within the first five or six picks. Remember, running backs have more control over what they do on any of their utilizations.

Elite receivers are worth a look earlier than before

The truly elite receivers - on average the general industry consensus points to Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Moss - are worth a look earlier than we have preached in the past.

Why not go all out and take them within the top six picks? Plucking a wideout within the top half of the first round cripples your ability to create a solid running back foundation. Touchdown output still favors the backfield.

Once the elite receiver class is gone, the urgency to take a No. 1 wideout decreases slightly. If you build up your running back group, you can settle for similar No. 1 wideout options within the same class.

If you draft an elite wideout in the late first round, we still recommend targeting mid-round receivers that can rattle off receptions so you can build up your backfield with consecutive picks afterward. Assess the remaining player pool before deciding to go this route.

Remember: Even if you're close to the first turn, taking a running back and a receiver with your first two selections in PPR formats presents more risk. Don't blindly grab a wideout early just because the masses tell you to.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

Ryan, at 02:45 on 06/30/09, says:

Great article. It just shows you that everything, even fantasy sports, changes over time. It's time we all start adjusting our strategies!

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Bomber Jay, at 12:23 on 08/25/09, says:

In our league, we carry 1 -QB 2 RB and 3 - WR & 1 -TE 1-Pk 1-DEF. If you drafted 3 elite wide outs in the first three rounds,(Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson,Wes Welker/Dwayne Bowe) then get Rodgers or River in the 4th round and add an elite TE in the 5th like Witten or Cooley. What do you get? Winner !! You would have 4 of 6 spots all filled with elite players. I ended up up Bush, Rice and Ward as my running backs. I will post a picture of trophy at the end of the season.

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J. Bowman, at 09:16 on 08/26/09, says:

While I agree that team looks like a massive preseason favorite, I'm a little surprised that one could get all three of those RBs in rounds 6-8. I'm less surprised if it's a) a 10-team league or b) not PPR; of course, in either of those cases, the team is weaker, because the other teams, in theory, will have a larger advantage at RB. Nonetheless, I think Bomber Jay has presented a viable strategy for a late first-round pick. This also highlights what I feel is a fundamental (and unavoidable) flaw in many strategy articles: it assumes the other owners will simply allow you to execute it. If five other owners in your league also want to fill up their slots with elite receivers, you'll be looking at Vincent Jackson with your third pick. On the other hand, this means RBs fall farther, so the guy who goes RB-RB suddenly has the advantage again. "Adjust to your league" is obvious advice, but too often overlooked, especially when you've got 2 minutes to make your next pick.

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cceoavengers@comcast.net, at 07:01 on 08/26/09, says:

We have had our draft a PPR league with bonus for TD length, 10 teams. I picked 3rd and got Fitz AZ the A Johnson Hou and followed that with C Johnson Tn. Insert your J&J joke here. In the 4th round A Rodgers fell to me followed by A Gonzalez INDY and R Bush (til he gets hurt week 4 to 9). My other RB Ward TB, R Rice Balt, L Washington JTS. Other notable wides were Royal Den and Breaston AZ. Draft strategy worked great and I'll see Jay with my trophy to. My 6th championship in the 17 yrs we've played. Yep I have no life in the fall.

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dsquared, at 05:09 on 08/28/09, says:

how the heck did you get andre johnson with the 18th pick in your PPR draft? that means almost everyone had picked twice already and you ended up with him. all i can say is pays to be in a league with idiots!

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Sonic Boom, at 05:56 on 09/03/09, says:

I picked 7th in a 8 team PPR league and took Randy Moss in the first (passed on L. Fitzgerald because I'm one of those who believes in the Madden Curse) and got A. Johnson in second, B.Westbrook in 3rd and took A. Rodgers in the 4th followed by R. Bush and then Ocho cinco. Some of the other notables down the line included Ray Rice RB, Eddie Royal WR, W.ParkerRB ,Thomas Jones RB, Leon Washington RB. You can put my trophy right next to cceoavenger's and Bomber Jay's

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Author Bio

Tim Heaney

Since the Boston University alum joined KFFL in 2006, his work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly and Yahoo! Sports, among numerous publications.

Tim competes in Tout Wars and LABR and appears every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore, as well as frequently on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio.

Follow him on Twitter.