Impact Analysis: Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers

June 12, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

As Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Russell Martin seeks his first home run of the season, fantasy owners are searching for answers. Can he rebound and put together a fourth consecutive season of double-digit home runs and stolen bases? Or is he destined to follow in the footsteps of Milwaukee Brewers backstop Jason Kendall, a former moderate power and speed threat at the catcher position?

LA story

Home runs are not the only thing vanishing from Martin's offensive game. A downturn in extra-base hits has Martin slugging just a tick above .300, and his isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) is a lean .047. Martin is offering at pitches 2.1 percent less often than his career average. Simply by taking the bat off his shoulder more frequently, Martin may find success.

Martin has recently stated he is not worried about his lack of power thus far, citing the five homers he hit in Spring Training. He noted that he's not really a home run hitter anyway. Someone might want to point out to him that he hit 19 in 2007 and 13 last year, 10 before the All-Star break. It seems like his power began to evaporate around that time.

Some of his flyballs that were once leaving the park are now groundballs finding gloves for outs. Over the last three seasons, his percentage of flyballs has been going down, partially explaining the drop in power. In that time, Martin's groundball rate has obviously climbed, currently a career-high 53.4 percent.

This distribution also helps to explain a fall-off in batting average. Despite a .320 average on balls in play and 19.6 percent line-drive rate, both normal for Martin, he's hitting a mere .254, nearly 30 points below his career mark.

Martin is still taking walks (14.2 percent) at about the same rate as last season's career-high 14.0 percent. He is also averaging a career-high 4.15 pitches per plate appearance. Although these are typically signs of a patient hitter, Martin has been striking out at a career-high pace of 20.9 percent.

He's still making solid contact (81.4 percent), but he's making less contact outside the zone (56.3 percent) than he has in other seasons. A lengthening of his swing is a likely culprit, something that is exploitable.

It's a bit early to draw a definitive conclusion for '09, but Martin hasn't had as much success taking the ball to the opposite field. His opposite-field batting average dropped from .419 in '07 to .301 in '08, too. In May manager Joe Torre questioned Martin's approach, saying Martin was pulling the ball too much.

Martin has since tried to use the middle of the field and said he began shortening his swing. However, he hasn't done it consistently. Torre recently discussed Martin's lack of confidence at the plate and said his catcher is still lengthening his swing. Martin's frustration has only compounded the problem.

The blame game

Does Torre share some of the responsibility? Last season, Martin played in a career-high 155 games after seeing action in 151 contests the year prior. He played 11 games at third base last season. The move was partly to keep his bat in the lineup and give him a break from catching. Necessity played a part, too; the Dodgers mixed and match at third a little last season before they traded for Casey Blake.

In an effort to rest Martin this season, Torre has already given him eight games off. Before the season, Torre stated his desire to have Martin behind the plate for about 140 games. For the long term, it might have done him some good to rest more last year, too, instead of playing at third.

Martin recently sat after a game in which he was a part of five wild pitches. Although they were not scored as passed balls, the Dodgers' bullpen catchers reviewed film and noticed Martin was moving around too much. Torre said it was possible Martin was also fatigued thanks to an overnight flight that followed the prior night's game.

The fatigue factor seems to hold some weight. Last season, Martin's second-half production dropped; he belted only three home runs and hit 34 points lower in batting average. In '07, Martin sustained his power, but he hit 31 points lower in batting average.

Criminal intent

Since the suspension of outfielder Manny Ramirez May 7, the Dodgers have become more of a running team. Before the suspension, the Dodgers attempted 25 stolen bases in 29 games. The team has made 42 attempts in the 32 games since.

After a slow start, Martin started to get it done on the basepaths. After going 0-for-2 in stolen base attempts in April, Martin swiped seven of eight bags in May. He has yet to take off in June, but he hasn't been on base much. Until he picks up the batting average, it won't be easy for him to accrue stolen base attempts.

Last season, after the trade for Manny, Martin stole eight bases, including five in September. However, Martin was primarily hitting leadoff, a spot more conducive to running. This season, Martin has spent the majority of time in the fifth and sixth spots. Upon Manny's return in July, Pierre would likely be the odd man out once again. That could shift the Dodgers' philosophy on the bases.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Taking a catcher early always carries some risk, and Martin's vanishing power will probably make it hard to sell him off for a decent price in most leagues. If you're trying to peddle him, point to the fact that he's an elite catcher who plays every day, and he runs more than others at his position.

There may be little to be gained by shopping him, though. His value is quite low, obviously, and a rebound is much more dependent on Martin's refinement of his approach than any due correction in his statistical indicators. Although he has taken criticism for perceived laziness on occasion, he's known as a hard worker. Fatigue likely plays more of a role there.

Martin offers speed at a position where there is next to none available and ranks fifth in at-bats among backstops, even with the extra rest. This is likely a down year for him, but enhanced concentration and mechanics would help. How much is hard to say; expect some improvement, but don't bank on Martin being the key to your fantasy title run.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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