Impact Analysis: Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers

June 11, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

In his 13th season in the bigs, Detroit Tigers outfielder Magglio Ordonez has learned the cold, hard-bitten truth behind professional baseball: "Baseball is a business. When you don't produce, they get rid of you quick," stated the flowy-haired sluggler.

Whether you're the owner of a struggling multimillion dollar baseball franchise or a fantasy team that's rotting away in your league's basement, sometimes drastic changes to a lineup are necessary to turn things around.

We are more than a third of the way into the season, and Ordonez just isn't cutting it. He is but a mere shadow of his former self, hitting .279 with 21 RBIs, 26 runs and two home runs in 201 at-bats. This comes only two years after his ridiculous 2007 campaign, in which he recorded 139 RBIs, scored 117 runs and posted a .363 clip (good for the AL batting title).

What's happening with Ordonez? And more importantly, what should fantasy owners do with him?

Power struggle

Maggs' biggest selling point has always been his ability to contribute heavily in the Triple Crown categories. He has topped the 100-RBI mark seven times in his career. But is it is a complete shock that his power stroke has been practically nonexistent this season?

Though he doesn't have the ability he once possessed (38 jacks in 2002), he averaged about 24 round-trippers in the past three seasons; his total of two home runs this season is raising some eyebrows. His eight double are nothing to get excited about either.

His flyball rate of 26.0 percent is 10 points lower than last season's figure and about the same as his lifetime rate. Furthermore, his home run-to-flyball rate is down 9.2 points from his lifetime pace of 13.7 percent. For a run producer such as Ordonez, such dramatic decreases in these two categories are disturbing.

Maggs has been less aggressive in the box, as evidenced by his 4.3-point drop in swing percentage compared to last season's. He has a lifetime .203 isolated power clip (slugging percentage minus batting average) but a mark of .070 in the category this season. Only 10 of his 56 hits have gone for extra bases. His slugging percentage (.348) is actually lower than his on-base percentage!

Maggs has had slugging issues in the past, but never this poor. His previous lows in slugging percentage came in 1998 (.415), his first full season, and 2005 (.436), a campaign marred by a hernia. In every other year he has slugged at least .477. Even manager Jim Leyland said he can't figure out what the slugger's problem is.

“Average” average

Maggs, who has a lifetime .311 clip, has a .279 average 53 games into the season. This may not seem too shabby, but for Ordonez it's pretty unMAGGnificent.

His 16.0 percent line-drive rate is his lowest since 2004 and about four points below his lifetime rate (19.9 percent). His groundball rate has skyrocketed from 43.6 percent last season to 58.0 percent this season. His infield flyball rate is up 4.6 points over 2008's figure.

His .327 batting average on balls in play is fairly consistent with his .320 career BABIP, so there are no black cats or broken mirrors to blame here. Ordonez is simply not swinging the bat with much authority and giving the defense ample chances to get him out.

These numbers only amplify the problem with his lack of power. It's hard to drive in runs or otherwise make an impact when you aren't driving the ball or getting proper lift.

Issues

Ordonez has been a rare breed of slugger in that he doesn't strike out much. His discipline requires focus, something that (to no surprise) seems to be escaping him at the moment. Ordonez's concern for his ailing wife, who needed to have surgery twice, has no doubt weighed on him as he has struggled. He took time off to visit with her in May.

Maggs is also quite aware of the rumors circling him. The Tigers would probably like to trade him but will likely find it difficult. Some have even speculated that Detroit will release him because he's on pace to meet incentives that would trigger a very costly option for 2010. No one is merely whispering about the drama in Maggs' life.

On the plus side

Ordonez is not struggling in all facets of the game. He has posted a solid contact rate; he also has an 11.1 percent walk rate, although the point may emphasize his lack of aggressiveness given that his career mark is 8.5 percent. His first-strike percentage has decreased, meaning he is ahead in the count more often. This has allowed him to be more selective and may point out why he's drawing so many walks; he's not chasing garbage.

Ordonez recently said he has felt more relaxed at the dish now that he believes issues with his wife are taken care of. He's hitting .343, with all eight of his doubles and nine RBIs, since May 8. He's hitting .344 (31-for-90) with runners on and .333 (18-for-54) with runners in scoring position.

When June rolled around, Maggs lost a 16-game hitting streak, but even though it ended, he said he felt his rhythm at the plate was improving. At the time Leyland said team hitting coach Lloyd McClendon noted that Ordonez hits the ball much harder when he keeps his hands up while he's at bat. Perhaps it's the kind of mechanical adjustment that Ordonez is using to spark his bat. Maybe once it becomes routine, we'll see more consistent and more profound production from him.

Fantasy outlook

In order to become a relevant fantasy player again, Maggs needs to start hitting some bombs. This won't happen until he starts getting more lift on the ball. It will probably require a dramatic turnaround in multiple areas. The flyball trends mentioned don't imply that a simple correction is forthcoming. Maggs needs to make wholesale changes in order to restore his power production to previous levels.

Based on the positive signs we've seen, he should improve. Ordonez is not suddenly a terrible hitter. It doesn't hurt to be hitting in front of first baseman Miguel Cabrera.

At 35 years old, Maggs must admit that his best years are behind him, though. It's not exactly likely that he'll drift toward his old lines. Don't expect him to suddenly start cranking jacks like he's 28. Until he does, or comes close, he may be only a two-category player (average, runs); in the fantasy realm they're a dime a dozen. Also, with more interleague play coming, the DH spot won't be available in NL parks, so he may lose at-bats.

What if the Tigers release or trade him? Detroit has a top-10 offense in runs per game. Maggs might go to a contender, but there's no guarantee that his new team would have a better lineup. Comerica Park is a middle-of-the-road venue for hitters. Only a move to a notable hitters' park could be considered helpful and make owners hopeful.

You may not be able to get much for him on the trade market unless it's based on his name recognition. Some still believe that Maggs is a proven run producer and will bounce back. That may be true, but the evidence isn't supportive. It may be harder to admit that he's just losing it.

If you have to hang on, the bench isn't a bad spot for him, particularly when his matchups aren't favorable. The recent display of his hot bat is uplifting, but his lack of power means there are better outfield options.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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