Impact Analysis: Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks

June 11, 2009 @ 14:45:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

At a position with a lot of well-rounded fantasy studs, Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds hardly comes into the conversation among the game's elite producers at the hot corner. The power-hitting infielder was drafted in the late rounds on average in 10- and 12-team leagues this year but entered Thursday, June 11, with 15 homers and 12 stolen bases to go with a .893 OPS, giving believers some great early value. But some questions still linger.

Is this the same player that we witnessed break the Major League Baseball single-season strikeout record last year with 204 punchouts, at times looking completely lost? Or is this an All-Star performer breaking out in his third season? Should you buy or sell?

Positives

The 25-year-old is coming off a so-so season. In 2008 he batted just .239, which for a third baseman is not much production in standard 12-team leagues. His 28 homers and 97 RBIs did, however, keep him on many owners' radars, and this year he has seemed to have taken a big step forward with a .269 average, a .360 on-base percentage and a .532 slugging percentage. His OPS ranks among some of the league's best, and he's doing it in the middle of the NL's 15th-rated hitting attack that has posted a putrid .242 mark.

An increase in raw power has thrust the University of Virginia alum into elite fantasy production. Reynolds' slugging has jumped from .458 to .532 this season, a massive 74-point climb. This can be backed up with a gaudy isolated power of .263, up from .219 in 2008 when he nearly knocked out 30. The flyball rates tell some of the story.

Reynolds' flyball rate is actually down from 45.2 in 2008 to 41.4 this season. However, his 28.3 percent home run-per-flyball rate has taken a gargantuan step forward from his 18.2 percent tally last year. Whether that number is sustainable or not remains to be seen. Likely it will fall slightly. Generally decreasing flyballs for a power hitter is bad; however, we have to look at it differently in this case with Reynolds.

In 2007, 14.3 percent of Reynolds' batted balls, and 11.0 percent last season, were harmless infield flies. This season Reynolds has knocked his infield pop-ups down to 3.7 percent. So even though his line-drive percentage is down to 15.3 percent from 19.1 percent, he's hitting the long ball with more efficiency. The low line-drive percentage would seem to eventually creep to his career norm, which sits at 18.8, only helping his chances for a rise in batting average.

Adjustments

Reynolds worked hard on increasing his plate patience this offseason. Plate patience, in its simplest form, is swinging only at pitches, balls or strikes, that you can drive and letting the rest go. This season Reynolds' walk rate has increased from 10.6 to 12.4 percent, and he has decreased his swings outside the strike zone from 24.0 to 21.9 percent. His overall swing percentage has, in fact, dropped from 46.8 to 43.4 percent, continuing a steady improvement since his 2007 rookie campaign.

One goal for him was to improve his approach in a two-strike count; earlier this season reports identified that he had been spreading his feet in his stance and choking up during these situations.

When you look at when Reynolds has done the bulk of his damage in games you are provided evidence that pitch recognition has not been a major problem this season. From innings one to three, he's hitting .196 with a .464 OPS. From innings four to six he's batting .250 with a .845 OPS. Finally, from innings seven to nine he's boasting a .375 clip with a 1.171 OPS. These numbers suggest Reynolds isn't guessing at the plate, instead recognizing how pitchers are attacking him. Last season he batted just .238 in the game's last three innings of regular play.

Speed racer?

With 11 stolen bases last season, we apparently just got a glimpse of Reynolds' potential on the basepaths. His 12 stolen bases this year have already eclipsed his single-season high set last season.

The Diamondbacks have simply become extremely aggressive. In 2007 they attempted 133 steals. However, last season they ran just 81 times all year with virtually the same club.

This year has marked a return to their 2007 philosophy as they've attempted 64 swipes before the middle of June; their 51 successes rank fourth in the bigs. Former manager Bob Melvin restarted the philosophy earlier this year, and it seems new skipper A.J. Hinch looks primed to continue it; they're already spotless in 11 June attempts.

What could normalize

There's a lot to like about Reynolds in 2009, but there are several things to be wary of. While his plate patience has seemed to improve, his strikeouts are still problematic. He leads the National League, once again, with 84 punchouts, and his strikeout rate has actually climbed from 37.8 to 39.2 percent.

Outside of batting average, strikeouts don't typically hamper the run-producing fantasy numbers of prime sluggers, such as Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard and Washington Nationals outfielder Adam Dunn. You're more comfortable with these two because they still reach base and have set a track record for power; you're willing to work around their batting average deficiencies.

We may soon count Reynolds among this group, but his batting average has been a major addition to his fantasy value this year; will his contact rate (61.5 percent) continue to decline this year, or will it return to his career 63.3 percent average?

His home run-per-flyball rate and his batting average on balls in play may be unsustainable. His BABIP is sitting at .368; it was .329 last year. In 2007, however, it was .386, so either Reynolds has been lucky this year and in 2007 or he was unlucky in 2008. Maybe he hasn't established a true baseline yet.

His minor league BABIP sat at .335 so a slight fall could be imminent considering the average is typically near .300. If his line-drive percentage climbs, however, he may be able to thwart this.

One minor concern: In his short MLB resume, Reynolds has typically been a pretty quick starter and has hit a wall as the All-Star break approaches. He has posted a career .843 and .938 OPS over his career in April and May, respectively, but he has hit for a .779 and a .710 OPS in June and July, respectively.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Assuming Reynolds will continue to control the zone and that more line-drives will likely come, it's a safe bet that Reynolds will be a great value for you at third or first base now that he has gained some added positional flexibility after a slew of D-backs injuries. We know he'll hit for power, and we know he'll get playing time.

The fact that he strikes out a lot will tempt the opposition to go for the K instead of pitching around him in a relatively weak lineup, giving him more chances to make contact.

He should continue his contribution in the stolen bases column; Arizona needs to run a bunch to counteract their overall inefficient plate work. Even if his batting average did fall to .240 or so, he still boasts plus potential for the position in power, RBIs, runs and now steals.

It'll be hard to sell Reynolds if you have him because only you likely know how solid this guy has been. However, if your team's batting average is already struggling and you can account for his pop elsewhere, you may want to deal him; the odds of his average staying at around .260 aren't solid.

If you're power-hungry and are dealing with an owner who doesn't believe, see if you can acquire Reynolds without paying top dollar, maybe by selling high on some of your own commodities. 

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy baseball players in the news (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)