Impact Analysis: Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros

June 5, 2009 @ 15:01:05

By Ilan Mochari
Edited by Tim Heaney

One of the most consistent right-handed hurlers in the game, Houston Astros starting pitcher Roy Oswalt has won at least 14 games in seven of his eight seasons, posting a sub-3.60 ERA in all eight of those campaigns. Of course, that is why it is potentially troubling that the 31-year-old Oswalt is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 2009, including a wretched 5.34 ERA in May. Are Oswalt's numbers the sign of a decline, or will he turn things around in the second half, as he so often has?

Scouting report

Oswalt has always been a post-break performer. In 2008, his pre-break ERA (4.56) and WHIP (1.38) were awful, but he more than made up for it in the second half (2.24 ERA, 0.92 WHIP).

During his career, Oswalt's second-half ERA (2.89) and WHIP (1.14) have been superb. Of course, his first-half ERA (3.39) and WHIP (1.25) have not been half bad; the problem is that in both 2008 and 2009 (thus far), Oswalt's pre-break numbers have been well below his 2001-2007 standards.

Despite his struggles, some of Oswalt's peripherals have remained consistent. His batting average on balls in play (.306 BABIP) and strand rate (79.3), for example, are right around his lifetime averages, as are his first-strike percentage (67 percent, a career-high pace) and contact rate (80.6 percent).

However, his home run-to-flyball ratio (HR/FB) soared to 12.7 in 2008, after hovering safely between 6.7 and 8.7 from 2004-07. Thus far in 2009, Oswalt's HR/FB ratio has climbed even higher, to a ridiculous 15.0 percent.

In 2008, Oswalt got his home run problem under control. After yielding 16 home runs in April and May, he surrendered only seven during the rest of the season. So to a certain extent, his 12.7 percentage in 2008 was inflated; it does not represent how well he curtailed the long ball in the second half.

Regardless, two questions remain: Why has Oswalt's HR/FB ratio soared again in the first half of 2009, and can he corral it?

Mystery solved?

Fatigue and injuries may partially explain Oswalt's home run allowance. Oswalt made three starts in the World Baseball Classic (WBC), tossing 11 1/3 innings - more than any other American pitcher. Oswalt has not cited the WBC as an excuse, but other WBC participants struggled out of the gate, including San Diego Padres starting pitcher Jake Peavy and Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.

While WBC participation isn't a guaranteed detractor of performance, evidence has surfaced that some pitchers who suited up for their countries have gotten off to slow starts, whether it be because of injury, overuse or a broken routine, among other factors.

Though Oswalt escaped April with a reasonable 3.94 ERA, he gave up six home runs in five starts. On Tuesday, May 5, Oswalt came out of a game at the Washington Nationals after five innings with a bone bruise on his right index finger. He did not miss a start, but he struggled in his next four games, yielding 29 hits and four more home runs in 24 1/3 innings.

Showing promise

Then came Oswalt's Monday, June 1, gem vs. the Colorado Rockies at Houston's Minute Maid Park. Aside from striking out eight - a season high - Oswalt lasted seven innings for the first time since April 27. What stood out, too, was Oswalt's 3:10 ground out-to-fly out ratio (GO/AO). It was a curious reversal of his GO/AO ratios from April (50:25) and a continuation of that pattern from May (26:36).

Effective throughout his career as a groundball pitcher, Oswalt had pitched his best game of 2009 by inducing flyballs. Had Oswalt unlocked the mystery to his struggles, or was his 3:10 ratio just the random way the ball bounced?

Regardless, Oswalt's slow first half has not prevented him from bringing to the table the one thing every fantasy owner wants in his starting pitchers: strikeouts. He has fanned 55 batters in 69 1/3 innings, giving him a 7.14 dominance rate that is his best since 2004.

That dominance rate suggests that Oswalt is far from finished. Oswalt also has durability to recommend him: He is a proverbial horse, having made at least 32 starts in each of the last five seasons. For all his struggles in 2009, he has lasted six or more innings in 10 of 12 starts.

Messed up by Minute Maid?

Inducing fly balls can be either a bane or a key to winning at Minute Maid Park, where the center field fence is a whopping 435 feet from home plate, furthest in the majors. In Oswalt's other win this season, also at Minute Maid, his GO/AO was 5:9. In fact, Oswalt's three best starts at Minute Maid, in terms of hits allowed, have come when his air outs exceeded his ground outs.

The irony is, Minute Maid is still a hitters' park because the other fences (315 feet to the left field fence, 326 feet to the right field fence) are so much shorter. It is an anomaly that Oswalt has been better in Houston through a majority of flyball outs.

Still, this may shed light on Oswalt's 1.03 groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB), the lowest of his career. The right type of flyball - hit to centerfield - actually helps him at Minute Maid. From 2005-08, Oswalt's groundball percentage held steady between 48.8 and 53.0. In 2009, his groundball rate is down to a mere 38.9 percent. The results speak for themselves: In 2009, Oswalt's ERA at Minute Maid is 3.52; his road ERA is 5.23.

The paradox is that Oswalt was plenty successful at Minute Maid in previous seasons, despite yielding fewer flyballs. Also, his newfound fervor for flyballs does not necessarily account for why such a high percentage of them are leaving the park.

Where will he be?

Moreover, Oswalt is the subject of numerous trade rumors. Any trade to a contender has a chance to make Oswalt a better fantasy pitcher in the wins category than he is with the last-place Astros (23-29). Of course, wins should be the last category used to judge fantasy baseball worth because a win is by no means within the pitcher's control.

A move to a team like the New York Mets - whose Citi Field has become a pitcher's park - would also bolster Oswalt's value. Conversely, a move to the American League would add significant risk to his profile.

Slip sliding away

One theory is Oswalt's reliance on his slider. In previous seasons, Oswalt had never used his slider more than 12.1 percent of the time, which not so ironically came last year after a drastic increase in usage in 2007. This year, Oswalt is throwing his slider 18.3 percent of the time, at the expense of his curveball and 93.4 mph fastball, which is actually his best average velocity on that pitch since 2004.

Earlier this season, Oswalt was unable to resolve his excessive reliance on the slider. "I really don't know what I'm doing right now," he told the Houston Chronicle after his outing May 10, in which he got the win but allowed four runs and six hits in six innings. "I went from a fastball-curveball pitcher to a fastball-slider pitcher all of a sudden. I'll try and figure it out."

One explanation may be that Oswalt's curve has been clocked at 73.1 mph this year - last season it was clocked at 70.0 mph. The jump in velocity might mean, simply, that the pitch is not where Oswalt needs it to be for him to throw it as frequently as he used to or with as much deception that's required for it to work. Perhaps the injury to his right index finger has hampered his command of the pitch.

In his most recent start, Oswalt relied much more on his fastball than his slider or curve: Rockies first baseman Todd Helton - whose home run accounted for Colorado's lone run on June 1 - told the Associated Press that Oswalt "basically just dominated us with his fastball. He came right at us."

If Oswalt's return to competence is a simple matter of throwing more fastballs, then the Rockies will not be the only team he dominates this season.

Then again, Oswalt has a no-trade clause in his contract; there's a chance he will stay with the Astros, potentially inhibiting his ability to earn his usual 14 or so wins.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Oswalt's track record - especially in the second half - is too consistent to be ignored. His dominance rate and velocity suggest that he has plenty of gas in the tank. Furthermore, his reputedly poor start is merely a 4.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

In other words, Oswalt's disappointing first half has still produced better than league-average results in ERA and WHIP. Throw in his strikeouts, and it's not as if Oswalt has been a plague on his fantasy owners. He is, on balance, a terrific buy-low candidate.

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Ilan Mochari
Ilan Mochari has been a KFFL contributor since 2007.

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