Impact Analysis: Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks

June 3, 2009 @ 15:01:05

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Tim Heaney

As most of you know by now, especially progressively balding owners, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Stephen Drew has begun to slowly corner himself squarely in the middle of Bustville, USA.

Hamstrung

On the season, Drew is hitting a horrendous .221 with two home runs, 15 RBIs, 12 runs scored and a .646 OPS in 113 at-bats. His batting average is 49 points lower than his career .270 mark, his slugging percentage is 90 points lower than his lifetime .354 tally, and his OPS is 124 points fewer than his career .770 mark. Drew was sidelined with a hamstring injury almost right out of the gate, so it's easy to think he simply hasn't come around yet.

Still, his aggressive approach that worked so well last year (a 57.9 first-pitch strike percentage) seems to be doing him in this season as it stands at an almost identical 57.7.

He's still falling behind often early in at-bats, thus helping to spike his strikeout numbers (23.9 strikeout percentage). Much of his success came last season because he was able to connect on 61.8 percent of his hacks on pitches outside of the strike zone. He hasn't displayed that skill this year, touching only 50 percent of those tosses at which he swings.

However, his walks have also increased (10.3 walk percentage) this season, which helps him to slightly circumvent this problem. His swing percentage overall is down, too (43.4 percent compared to 46.0 percent average), which means he's becoming more selective.

Wherefore art thou, Stephen?

There are a bevy of factors to take into consideration of just how bad his season is currently going. Drew's line-drive percentage (16.9) has dropped 6.3 percentage points from last year's 22.6. In addition, his groundball percentage (40.4) and his groundball-to-flyball ratio (0.95) on the year are both on pace for career worsts.

Drew's contact rate (82.0) this season is nearly identical to his 2008 final number (82.6), but his BABIP this season (.274) is a whole 37 points lower than his career figure (.311) - a reason for hope.

However, he still can't solve southpaws (.133 clip in 30 at-bats this year, .257 career). Though he hasn't been able to hit anywhere this season, last season's average splits (.321 at Chase Field, .263 on the road) imply that his home park has helped him drastically.

Although Drew's hamstring injury hasn't visibly hampered him, the time off can't be helping him try to find a groove that was glaringly absent before he tweaked it. He's hitting .232 with one home run, 10 RBIs and nine runs scored in the 69 times he has stepped up to the plate since returning. He was recently left off the lineup card Tuesday, June 2, for a reason that has not been disclosed yet by the team.

Moving forward

As the season moves forward, common knowledge would suggest that his spot at cleanup in the Diamondbacks order could be causing Drew to swing for the fences as the pressure of his fantasy-debilitating slump continues. But manager A.J. Hinch seems determined to keep him at the four spot: "He's continuing to have patience and selectiveness," Hinch said, "but like any hitter who is struggling a little bit, he wants to make up for it all in one at-bat."

Last season, he hit most of the time in either the leadoff spot or the two-hole. As a leadoff man, Drew hit .313 (335 at-bats) with an .889 OPS, and in the two-hole he hit .261 (161 at-bats) with a .722 OPS. Over Drew's career in the bigs, when is situated in the cleanup role (62 at-bats), he possesses a personal-worst batting average (.210) and OPS (.562) throughout all nine spots in the batting order. He has been able to drive in some runs, though, with nine in 59 at-bats from there this year.

It seems as though Drew hitting atop the order helps him concentrate and be selective with his swings a bit more while still retaining the aggressiveness to swing at a good pitch early in the count. It just might be time for Hinch to place the struggling shortstop back into a fairly comfortable spot hitting No 1 or No. 2, but he hasn't mentioned making the move yet.

Drew is carrying a seven-game hit streak but has just two RBIs for his efforts. Of course, he has fanned nine times in his last four games, too.

Examining his 2008 second half

Keep in mind that he hit .326 after the All-Star break last year after a .264 average beforehand. He didn't hit for power during that tear (nine homers compared to 12 pre-break), though, and a lot of his success may have rested on a .366 BABIP. The BABIP may have been slightly justified because he hit line drives on 22.6 percent of his batted rawhide.

Fantasy baseball outlook

His 2008 performance suggests Drew can hit more comfortably in the first or second spot in the order, yet cleanup duty still gives him great run-producing potential from the shortstop position. Normally, aggressive hitters thrive in that spot in the order, but Drew hasn't shown the pop that carried off his bat last season.

Based on Drew's scorching second half last year, it may be difficult to buy extremely low on him this year, regardless on how luck-based it may have been; those owners clinging to him are expecting another turnaround - there is hope that some of his numbers will even out. The D-backs are sticking with him at cleanup, so they're willing to let him work through it.

The biggest draw for Drew is his pop potential from a position typically lacking in that department. His current price is probably the lowest it will be for some time; you can take a chance here, but be sure to have backup plans on roster.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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