Impact Analysis: Miguel Tejada, Houston Astros

June 2, 2009 @ 16:45:06

By Eric McClung
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

The surprise NL leader in batting average is Houston Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada. Considered washed up and a potentially toxic fantasy asset, Tejada was universally panned after a down 2007 campaign, after which he was traded from the Baltimore Orioles, followed by a major power outage in the second half of 2008 with Houston. Overwhelming evidence of steroid usage and the discovery that Tejada is two years older than he claimed to be certainly did not elevate him on anyone's draft board.

Too Tejada to handle

In hopes of better preparing himself for this season and looking to reduce his mileage, Tejada, a free agent this offseason, did not play in the Dominican Winter League for the first time in his career. Prior to joining his club for spring training, Tejada did play in the World Baseball Classic. The disappointing 2008 season, marked by his lowest home run and RBI output in 10 years in addition to several layers of controversy, must have been a long one for Tejada. The time away from the game to clear his head has been paying dividends.

At the plate, Tejada's current line-drive percentage is near his career rate but his flyball percentage (34.2 percent) has increased dramatically; it's 5.3 percentage points higher than last season's and 1.9 above his rate since 2002. His home run-to-flyball ratio is on par with last season's, but the rising number of flyballs should ensure Tejada gets some more balls to leave the yard than last year's disappointing total of 13.

Much of Tejada's success has come by making a lot of contact - 90.1 percent of the time this year, compared to his overall mark since 2002 of 85.3. He is swinging more often and at more strikes; he's 4.2 percentage points above his rate of swings inside the strike zone since 2002.

A statistic sure to correct itself is Tejada's batting average on balls in play, currently an astounding .359 - nearly 60 points above his career average. His line-drive rate isn't enough to suggest that he'll sustain it, but that alone shouldn't keep Tejada's high batting average from falling out. A solid batting eye and the high contact rate make a huge drop-off unlikely.

Tejada still rarely walks (career-low 2.9 percent thus far, in fact) but is also striking out at a rate that is less than half of his career percentage. At this stage of his career, Tejada may not be able to produce consistent power, but he is perhaps adapting to a new skill set to make contact at a sizzling clip. A sharp rise in strikeouts would damage the high contact rate that has made him so successful this season.

Houston has a problem

In need of a spark to get the offense of the last-place Astros on track, manager Cecil Cooper has experimented with several changes to his lineup. Tejada had spent 101 at-bats hitting fifth until eventually getting moved back to the two-hole, where he had spent the early part of the season.

This year Tejada has fared much better, in terms of average, as a table setter rather than as a run producer, hitting about 200 points higher while batting second than he has while hitting anywhere else. Unfortunately, it limits his opportunities to drive in and score runs. He has 15 RBIs and 14 runs in that time in the five-hole, despite a .248 batting average there. While hitting second, where his average is .476, he has only 11 RBIs and 10 runs scored in 84 at-bats.

Cooper has stated nothing is permanent, so more moves could be in store, but No. 2 has been a beneficial spot for Tejada. The health or performance of players like second baseman Kazuo Matsui (hamstring), outfielder Michael Bourn, first baseman Lance Berkman and outfielder Hunter Pence has had a big influence, though. This lineup could be in flux often, and Tejada could even be trade bait down the road.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Tejada has shown similar skills in the past, but it seems as if he's making a transition this season. While he's no longer a power hitter, he has begun to flourish, relatively speaking, as a contact hitter. However, it also means that his value is limited, and he's due for a slight correction.

It's not a bad idea to see who would buy him for more than what he's worth based on his name value and his inflated batting average. He's an experienced enough hitter to keep this up, though, and the move to a better team might even boost his value slightly.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Sotero Alviar Jr., at 01:01 on 10/02/09, says: the houston astros needs to offer miguel tejada a contract for at least 3 more years. He is a hitting machine that has not slow down. You need his bat and defense for the 2010 season. He is and asset to the organization and he draws fans. Do not make the mistake to trade him.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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