Impact Analysis: Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

June 1, 2009 @ 17:51:07

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Tim Heaney

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim starting pitcher Jered Weaver came into the big leagues with a lot of fanfare, and so far in 2009 he's putting together his best season since his rookie year as a post-hype, under-the-radar starter. Weaver has compiled a 4-2 record, with a 2.36 ERA (third in the American League), a 1.03 WHIP and 53 fanned batters in 68 2/3 innings. It's hard to quibble with these numbers, but is Weaver capable of sustaining this level of performance? Can Weaver continue his dream season and carry your fantasy team through the night to reach the morning light?

Scouting report

Weaver has been widely perceived as a potential frontline starter in large part due to his storied collegiate career at Long Beach, his first-round pedigree and his bloodlines (brother is Jeff Weaver of the Los Angeles Dodgers). The 6-foot-7, 205-pound right-hander has never boasted the raw stuff of an ace, though. The 26-year-old relies on precision and movement to create outs.

Manager Mike Scioscia has credited much of Weaver's success to his improved fastball command this year; Weaver also said his success has come specifically from his aggressiveness early in the count. Glancing at the numbers, Weaver has improved his first-strike percentage slightly (62.7 percent in 2008 to 63.4 percent in 2009). Scioscia also mentioned how Weaver is getting more bite on his breaking ball and how his changeup has improved.

Establishing the count early on against hitters has helped Weaver to gain more juice out of high pitch counts; he has tossed at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts this year - and at least seven frames in six games. Inefficiency has been his big deterrent; longer outings counteract ballooning ratios.

Even though his breaking ball and changeup are supposedly better, Weaver is relying more on his fastball more than ever and throwing his secondary pitches less often, which further demonstrates that he's a command pitcher who lives and dies by the location and movement of his hard stuff. Using the fastball more also creates a more distinct difference between his heat and his off-speed arsenal, allowing for more deception.

Weaver has exhibited good command throughout his career, averaging 2.55 walks and 7.23 strikeouts per nine innings. He has improved his command a tad this season, but for the most part, his home runs allowed, strikeouts and groundball percentage are in line with his career numbers. What's been the difference then?

Coming back to earth?

As opposed to previous years, the big difference this year is that he has been enjoying better luck on fielding-dependent plays. His BABIP has plummeted to .246, an extreme figure that he's not likely to maintain. By comparison, Weaver's BABIP was .306 in 2008 and .322 in 2007. The league average usually hovers around .300.

In addition, Weaver has also made dramatic "improvement" getting out of innings unscathed with runners on base. This season his left-on-base percentage is 85.2 percent, compared to 70.7 percent in 2008 and 73.6 percent in 2007.

As the season progresses, expect the 26-year-old's fielding-dependent statistics to swing towards the means, which will translate to a higher ERA and WHIP. An ERA in the 3.50 to 3.75 range and a WHIP in the 1.25 neighborhood fall in line with Weaver's career norms.

It also remains risky to pitch him away from Angel Stadium as he continues to show negative splits on the road (4.50 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, .301 opponents' clip this year).

Fantasy baseball outlook

Weaver is somebody that should be shopped in all formats while his value is as high as ever. If you can't move him, don't fret. Weaver is still a quality fantasy baseball pitcher - especially for his draft price this year - who doesn't walk many batters, generally has favorable home run rates for a flyball pitcher and averages about seven strikeouts per nine innings. Worst-case scenario, he's still among the American League's top dozen or top 20 starters as long as he can keep up the aggressiveness that made him a rookie success.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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