Impact Analysis: Adam L. Jones, Baltimore Orioles

May 29, 2009 @ 01:02:01

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

In a dreary beginning to 2009 for the Baltimore Orioles, San Diego-born outfielder Adam L. Jones has brought some sun into Camden Yards. The 23-year-old is hitting a stout .357 with 11 home runs, 40 runs and 36 RBIs in his first 41 games after combining for .270, nine homers and 57 RBIs in 132 games last season.

"Potential" and "tools" made Jones the centerpiece of the deal that sent starting pitcher Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners. After a few mediocre experiences in the show, he has been poised to break out of a prospect's confines and is considered by many to be a star beginning to peer into his elite destiny.

With Jones' 1.060 OPS and equally dominating months in April (.359 average and 1.062 OPS) and May (.355 and 1.033), fantasy baseball owners are in a bind. Can a player like Jones really be that much better than he was in 2008? Should he be traded or held onto?

Positives

Right away it's easy to point out where Jones has been different this season. While he may attribute his success to confidence and a rigid offseason strength and conditioning program, the Orioles coaching staff and teammates claim his key improvements have come in pitch selection and learning to hit to all fields.

For young players, especially those in their sophomore season, pitch selection is one of the toughest hurdles to overcome. However, this season the athletic outfielder has decreased his swings outside of the strike zone from 36.2 percent in 2008 to 31.3, while also increasing his swings in the zone from 69.1 percent to 73.7, giving him more chances to get good wood on the ball. In addition his walk rate has climbed from 4.6 percent to 6.6, closer to his minor league average of 7.2, though his strikeout rate is still a bit high at 21.6 percent.

Hitting second in the order hasn't hurt him, either. With All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts in the leadoff spot and All-Star outfielder Nick Markakis slotted behind him, Jones is in a prime position in the lineup. In 103 at-bats out of the No. 2 spot last season Jones hit just .252 with four homers and a .689 OPS. This year he's taking advantage.

Jones is hitting much better against pitchers early in the game, meaning he's ripping early fastballs. This season he's hitting .462 with a 1.269 OPS against starting pitchers in his first at-bat, .351 and .968 in his second, and .350 and 1.050 in his third. In fact last season he saw two strikes in a count 54.5 percent of his at-bats. This year the total has dropped to 49.7. When making contact on the first or second pitch, Jones is a combined 22-for-43 (.512 average) with six homers and 21 RBIs.

As onlookers have pointed out, Jones has been hitting the ball hard and using every inch of the field. Out of 134 balls batted he has pulled 44, driven 69 up the middle and taken 21 into right field. Those numbers don't reflect too much of a change from his typical approach, but his line-drive percentage has jumped from 17.8 percent to 20.0. Similarly, his isolated power has erupted from a paltry .130 to a monstrous .281 and his slugging has climbed 237 points.

Bottom line: He has not been a singles hitter.

Negatives

There's not much to dislike about Jones this season for where you could draft him, but we have to be realistic. Jones is hitting .345 in his career when he puts a ball in fair territory, but the fact of the matter is that he still strikes out more than 20 percent of the time. He struck out 22.9 percent in the minors, and it is probably just a fixture in his game. While his swings outside of the zone have dropped, his contact rates have also fallen on pitches outside and inside the zone.

Further an alarming number when viewing the back of his midseason baseball card is his extraordinarily high BABIP, which is sitting at a curious .408. The higher the number generally means the better the hitter, but it also often means this player is very lucky. This number is doomed to drop at least a score or more.

Another temporary figure is Jones' home run-to-flyball ratio, which currently stands at 26.8 percent. Barry Bonds, the potentially steroid-assisted home-run king, averaged 25.1 percent over his career. Jones is not Barry Bonds. Enough said.

One thing some owners may have missed out on by drafting Jones is the potential for 20-plus stolen bases. Even though his career high for steals in a minor league season is 13, which he accomplished twice (in 499 and 380 at-bats), Jones was expected to run more.

The O's rank in the bottom sixth of the league in stolen base success (63 percent), and they've only attempted 43 swipes, which also ranks in the bottom third. The team philosophy isn't conducive to Jones' basepath presence.

It's still possible that he could be on the move more as the season progresses, but in his first 162-game season it seems more likely that he'll burn out at season's end than pick up steam.

Fantasy baseball outlook

In all likelihood, Jones is not going to win the American League MVP Award. He will not win the batting title. He won't lead the league in home runs. He will provide a plus performance in each category, however, and you would be fine keeping him if you can't upgrade him for a better player through trade.

It's never good practice to sit on a player and close yourself off to offers, but it's especially true with Jones. While he will be a quality player some owner may offer first- or second-round talent in a deal to get him. You should take advantage if that is the case with you. 

In keeper leagues you may want to hold him in a higher regard, but even so it is hard to imagine Jones keeping up his current 2009 pace.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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