Impact Analysis: Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves

May 27, 2009 @ 12:10:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Tim Heaney

Since being acquired by the Atlanta Braves in the fall of 2007, Jair Jurrjens has pitched masterfully over a span of a full season and two months. In 2008, Jurrjens went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA, an admirable performance given it was his first full season in the big leagues.

This season the 23-year-old has improved on last season's performance as he has posted the third lowest ERA (2.07) in the National League and fourth smallest in the majors. Despite his success, Jurrjens' peripherals are rather pedestrian and don't support the pitching numbers he has posted thus far in his young career. What, then, is the secret to Jurrjens' success? How much of his performance is sustainable over the extent of the season?

Scouting report

The 6-foot-1, 200-pound right-hander is not a stuff guy with much upside or "projectability." The key to Jurrjens' success is his ability to locate pitches and change speeds. His low-90s fastball doesn't miss many bats, but Jurrjens gets good sink on it and has a knack for adding and subtracting velocity from it.

Jurrjens' changeup is his bread and butter pitch that he uses frequently to complement his fastball. In fact, Jurrjens threw the fourth highest percentage of changeups (25.9 percent) last year among National League pitchers with at least 162 innings pitched.

Last year, the right-hander did not have a quality third pitch, but he has added a dependable slider to his repertoire this season.

Statistical analysis

Last season when Jurrjens registered 13 wins and posted a 3.68 ERA, he averaged 6.64 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.35 walks per nine innings, both middle-of-the-road marks. Jurrjens was able to make up for it as he was very stingy at surrendering home runs, serving up only 11 dingers in 188 1/3 innings last season.

His 0.53 home runs per nine innings ranked as the fifth lowest rate among MLB hurlers with 162 innings or more. In addition, the Curacao native enjoyed a high groundball rate (51.5 percent), which helped him limit the damage against him in terms of earned runs allowed.

Fast forward to this year: Jurrjens has seen his strikeouts per nine innings plummet from 6.64 to 5.16. Even though Jurrjens is enjoying monumental success with a 2.07 ERA, he's heavily dependent on the success of his defense.

So far, the luck has been in his favor. The right-hander holds a .255 BABIP, a statistic that should rise as the season progresses. Furthermore, Jurrjens has seen his groundball rate drop from 51.5 percent to 39.3 percent, a disturbing trend for a pitcher who is relying more on his fielders. Historically Jurrjens is a groundball pitcher, so this statistic should be considered more of an anomaly.

On the bright side, Jurrjens is still stubborn in terms of serving up homers, allowing just 0.44 home runs per nine innings this year. His ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the yard is one of the reasons why the Dutch pitcher has posted a respectable 3.75 FIP (fielding independent pitching).

One stat that can almost be counted on to correct itself is his 84.1 percent strand rate. It's safe to predict that more runners will eventually cross the plate, especially since he gears his pitching more toward contact than whiffs.

What to expect down the stretch

One thing to keep in mind: Jurrjens faded down the stretch in the second half last season, posting a 4.66 ERA and 1.45 WHIP following the All-Star break. The second-half fade can be attributed to the additional workload of the big leagues - something the youngster wasn't accustomed to pitching in the minor leagues considering he skipped Triple-A and his previous high of 142 2/3 frames came at Single-A West Michigan of the Detroit Tigers system.

This season manager Bobby Cox has kept Jurrjens on a strict pitch count. The right-hander has thrown 105 pitches or more in just two of his 10 total starts, which is a good sign for his chances to withstand the grueling affects of the big league marathon.

He has also become more efficient of late; though he has tossed at least 102 pitches in each of his last four starts, he has lasted at least six frames in each outing.

Given Jurrjens' low BABIP and pedestrian K/BB ratio, his ERA (2.07) and WHIP (1.18) should be expected to rise from here on out. His ERA will likely be in the 3.25 to 3.75 range by the end of the season, and his WHIP should approach 1.28 to 1.35.

Fantasy baseball outlook

This is not an indictment on Jurrjens as a pitcher. He's still a quality No. 3 starter who is still useful in fantasy because he keeps the ball in the park as a result of the sink and life on his fastball. His low home run rate lessens the chance that Jurrjens will be victimized by big innings and costly three-run round-trippers.

With his ERA at 2.07, though, Jurrjens owners should try to shop him to maximize his value at its highest. If they find no takers, Jurrjens is still a quality back-end starter in a standard 12-team roto league. While he lacks sexy strikeout stats, the 23-year-old gives you an honest effort more often than not and will keep the ball in the park. 

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)