Impact Analysis: Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

May 26, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal's combination of speed and power has always made him a target of fantasy managers on draft day. Who wouldn't want a guy who could hit 12-15 bombs and steal 25-30 bags from the perennially shallow shortstop spot? Throw in a lifetime .350 on-base percentage (OBP) and an average of 81.2 runs scored per season, and you have yourself a top mid-tier shortstop.

Unfortunately, most managers miss something as they highlight Furcal's name and get ready to hit the DRAFT! button; that small, teensy, almost microscopic asterisk next to his name referencing the fact that the amount of time he has spent on the DL rivals the length of many professional ballplayers' entire careers. 

In his short season last year (36 games, 143 at-bats), Furcal played incredibly well. He hit five jacks, scored 34 runs and posted a .357 clip and 1.012 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS). This, along with the fact that he was totally healthy entering the 2009 season, led to his name being high on many draft lists.

Injuries galore

Let's do a quick review of the body parts the 31-year-old has injured over the course of his 10 year career: finger, shoulder, head (dizziness), wrist, back, knee and ankle. There isn't much left to injure when you think about it.

The shoulder injury cost him 85 games in 2001 and ended up being season-ending; the wrist ailment in 2005 cost 35 games; a sprained left ankle in 2007 cost nine; and a lower back injury last season (similar to the one that held him out for 11 games in 2007) held him out for 125 games.

Let's also not forget about those small nagging bumps and bruises that have riddled him throughout his career, causing him to miss two or three games here and there.

Not so Furcalicious

We're about one-fourth of the way into the season, and Furcal has committed the most horrendous of fantasy crimes; the kind that makes owners feel about as stupid as the guy who realizes the cream he bought from that 2 a.m. infomercial didn't make him any "fuller": Forty games in, he has been a complete bust.

After 172 at-bats through Monday, May 25, the "speedster" has stolen three bags, scored 24 runs and hit only one home run. Throw in a .238 average and .299 OBP (both well below his career averages), and its safe to say you'll find Furcal riding the pine in most leagues in favor of such breakout shortstops as the Tampa Bay Rays' Jason Bartlett or the Cleveland Indians' Asdrubal Cabrera.

Furcal has never had great plate discipline, but to his credit, he has been improving the past few years. His walk-to-strikeout ratio has risen from 0.74 in 2006, to 0.81 in 2007, to a career-best 1.18 in his 2008 stint. This season his walk-to-strikeout ratio is rotting in the basement at 0.52 - this coming from a lead-off/two-hole hitter, mind you.

Furcal's contact rate of 87.1 percent is in line with his lifetime 87.6 percent. The problem is Furcal has no power. His home run-per-flyball ratio is at only 2.2 percent, 5.4 points below his lifetime average. His infield flyball rate is at an astounding 26.7 percent (his lifetime average is 12.0 percent). He is clearly out in front too often or attempting to generate too much lift with his swing.

Not to blame?

This spike isn't all Furcal's fault. There is a certain element of luck involved, and right now Furcal is throwing nothing but sevens. His groundball rate of 49.6 percent is consistent with his lifetime average of 49.7 percent, so as his infield flyball rate evens out, he should benefit.

Furcal has a lifetime 77.1 percent success rate when stealing. This season he is 3-for-6. No doubt Furcal's limited attempts resemble manager Joe Torre's way of making sure the body of his injury-prone shortstop doesn't incur too much wear and tear throughout the course of the season.

When a player is in the dumps, it's always reassuring to see an abnormally low BABIP. It gives hope that the player is just unlucky right now and as his BABIP averages out, so will his numbers.

Furcal's 2009 BABIP is at .282. Yes, it is lower than his lifetime average of .318 and slightly less than the MLB average of about .300, but surely not by enough to consider it "fluky." He did in fact post similar BABIPs in both 2004 (.299) and 2007 (.298).

Furcal is also struggling on the road, hitting only .195 compared to .278 when at Dodger Stadium.

The departure of Manny

In an attempt to make up for the sudden departure of outfielder Manny Ramirez, Torre may have to employ more of a small ball approach, meaning more active base stealing. With Furcal batting second after speedy outfielder Juan Pierre, Torre and the Dodgers would definitely benefit by utilizing Rafy's speed. Since May 13, Furcal has attempted two steals. He hasn't succeeded in either attempt, and it's disconcerting to see his inactivity on the basepaths.

Speaking of Pierre, his insertion into the leadoff spot after the May 7 departure of Ramirez has been good for the Dodgers, as he is batting .388 thorough Monday, May 25. Furcal, on the other hand, has suffered since moving to the two-hole. The "Manny Ramirez Effect" never benefited Furcal, as he was hitting only .264 (from the leadoff spot) with Manny in the lineup. Since Manny's suspension following the May 6 game, Furcal has been even worse, hitting only .197 from the two-hole.

What's the deal?

If you have ever watched Furcal play, it is obvious he is a passionate player. A shattered batting helmet should come to no surprise to those in the Dodgers' clubhouse.

Like most struggling MLB players, he may be trying to do too much to correct himself. "He's getting frustrated. There's no question.... Right now I think it's just [being] overanxious," Torre said of Furcal. Torre went on to say how Furcal's frustration and anxiety are causing him to jump at some pitches and over-swing at others.

Torre also said that, "Physically, he (Furcal) seems fine;" however, it should be mentioned that prior to the game on Monday, May 25, versus the Colorado Rockies, Torre expressed concern over the condition of Furcal's back, leading him to bench Furcal for the second day in a row (though Furcal did pinch-hit on Sunday, May 24).

It's important to note the tight muscle that was bothering Furcal isn't the same part of his back that was operated on last season. The benching was precautionary, and he was expected to be in the lineup May 26.

Furcal has stated that he isn't feeling comfortable at the plate, especially when the switch-hitter is batting left-handed.

In order to help straighten himself out Furcal has been getting extra batting practice in. "I'm working. I'm hitting early every day. I'm doing extra work," he stated. He's still trying to regain his timing.

Additionally, Torre has been sitting Furcal often to help keep him and his surgically repaired back healthy and fresh.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Furcal's speed has always been his main draw, but it just isn't there right now. His decent power stroke was always a nice plus, but that is lacking as well.

Torre's conservative approach with the oft-injured Furcal may mean the stolen base attempts won't equal his past numbers, despite Manny's playing status.

The current health status of Furcal is also an intriguing question. A history of ailments, including major back surgery only one year ago, combined with his poor play raises speculation about Furcal's health and if it is affecting his play; though it's not likely that Joe "Tight Lips" Torre would reveal anything until Furcal landed on the DL.

The shallow shortstop position actually has some solid talent this season, so if you can, try to snag somebody up. Managers in deep leagues probably won't have much of a selection, so you may be stuck with Furcal while he rides this slump out, hoping of course that this is just a slump and not the effect of a more serious health issue. It's imperative to have an alternative, though.

A trade is most likely out of the question, as you probably wouldn't get much for him right now.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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