Impact Analysis: Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies

May 14, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins has never been one to start the season off with guns blazing. Throughout his 10-year career, Rollins has had fewer hits (216), doubles (42), triples (seven), RBIs (71) and stolen bases (30) in the month of April than in any other month. His .265 average and .400 slugging percentage in April are also his lowest marks compared to the other five months of the season.

Rollins' stat line for April 2009 was as follows: one jack, six RBIs, one steal, a .207 average and .293 slugging percentage. Through Thursday, May 14, his numbers aren't any better (his May average and slugging percentage are .173 and .284, respectively). When it comes to starts, forget slow; this is downright dead.

Oh J-Roll of 2007, where art thou?

Rollins' 2007 campaign, in which he was named the NL MVP, was nothing short of spectacular. He hit 30 jacks (most of any shortstop in MLB), recorded 94 RBIs, swiped 41 bags, scored 139 runs (most of any player) and posted a .296 average and .875 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. With the exception of stolen bases, all of these marks are career bests.

Last season Rollins appeared to be victim of the notorious MVP hangover. A month-long absence, in essence, because of an ankle injury and a regression in power led to a decrease in almost every major offensive category compared to 2007.

Slow start to 2009

As a leadoff man, Rollins sure hasn't been doing his part this season. His 4.2 percent walk rate is his lowest since his rookie season in 2000 and well below his lifetime mark of 7.4 percent. Rollins has a 0.35 walk-to-strikeout ratio, which is 26 points lower than his 0.61 career rate.

Rollins is also hitting fewer line drives and more groundballs. His line-drive percent is at 16.5 (through Wednesday, May 13), down from his 21.7 career percentage. He has only seven doubles and zero triples this season. His home run-per-flyball ratio has steadily regressed since 2006 and is at an all-time low of only 4.3 percent (through May 13).

When he has reached base, Rollins has not been very aggressive or successful when attempting a steal, swiping only two bags in four attempts.

He is struggling against lefties, batting only .167 with a .466 OPS in 42 at-bats.

Reasons for the slow start

Manager Charlie Manuel has asserted that Rollins is in a funk and may be pushing too hard to get himself out.

Age may be beginning to catch up with Rollins, 30, although this dramatic of a drop-off is extreme. Despite a career-high 47 steals last season, his power may be on the decline, as previously mentioned.

Rollins participated in the 2009 World Baseball Classic and performed admirably, batting .417; however, his hot play has not translated to the start of the regular season. He has admitted to suffering from a WBC hangover.

Through May 13, J-Roll's average on balls in play is a paltry .214 - nearly 85 points below his career mark. Suggesting Rollins has been a victim of bad luck would seem in order, then, except that he's not driving the ball with the same authority he has in past seasons.

Through May 13, 27.7 percent of the switch-hitter's batted balls were infield flies. His career mark is 10.6 percent. Rollins is clearly out in front too often, or at least attempting to generate too much lift with his swing.

One scout, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, had this to say about the 2009 version of Rollins:

"His approach is horrible. He's trying to pull everything, from both sides. He's rolling over more balls than I've seen him in a long time. He's a lot easier out now than he's been at any point in the last three years. I haven't seen him look this bad since about 2005."

Positives

A solid 89.1 percent contact rate (through May 13) and that abnormally low BABIP mean the future looks reasonably bright for Rollins, as more of his balls should start falling, especially in the gaps. Also, a seemingly fluky 0.96 ISO (a hitter's isolated power output) is sure to increase a little, as Rollins' lifetime mark is .162. This could translate to more long balls.

Manuel is a patient man. Though he moved Rollins to the fifth spot in the lineup for the May 12 and May 13 games, it is a safe bet that the speedy shortstop won't be riding the pine anytime soon.

Despite a slow start on the bags (the Phillies are tied for 20th in MLB with 18 steals), Manuel's club enjoys his aggressive approach on the basepaths. Last season Philly ranked fourth in MLB with 136 stolen bases. It is a safe bet that as Rollins starts reaching base more often, he will attempt more steals.

Fantasy baseball outlook

It's important to realize that, regardless of some indicators favoring a bounce-back, we aren't likely to see the 2007 Rollins again. It will take some serious effort just for him to return to his 2008 form (.277-11-59, with 47 steals).

Given his recent statistical trends and some observations, among other factors, the 2008 season is more than likely Rollins' new baseline. He's a confident player, one who puts in the work until he gets it right, so some sort of turnaround is inevitable. Unfortunately, it may not be to the level fantasy owners who took him in the first or second round were hoping for.

If you own Rollins, you'll have to be patient. If you can trade him to someone who buys the main selling point - he has done it before - for a high-level player, it would look like a good move. If you're seeking Rollins in a deal, you have much ammo to use during negotiations in an attempt to buy low. Just realize that you may not be stealing an elite player if you do.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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