Impact Analysis: Lance Berkman, Houston Astros

May 12, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Bryce McRae

As sleep-deprived owners of Houston Astros first baseman Lance Berkman (wrist) became privy to the news of his sore left wrist, an overwhelming wave of stress-induced warmth was sure to render them distraught.

Berkman missed his third straight contest Sunday, May 10, with his wrist ailment. However, after suffering little discomfort during batting practice Tuesday, May 12, he was inserted back into his customary three-spot in the lineup.

Slow start

On the season, Berkman is just 19-for-103 (.184) with seven long balls, 16 RBIs, 14 runs scored and a lackluster .743 OPS. His average is a considerable 115 points lower than his career .299 mark; his .742 OPS is a whopping 226 points lower than his lifetime mark of .968.

While his .162 April batting average and .718 OPS are likely reasons for some owners to worry, keep in mind that Berkman is a historically slow starter. His lifetime .272 batting average in the month of April, his lowest of any month, is testament this. He sports a lifetime May average of .317 with a 1.012 OPS in 834 at-bats, giving owners less reason to worry once the calendar flips.

Not all that bad

Although things look bleak at the moment, there are some good things coming out of Berkman's atrocious start. His batting eye, noted by his 0.78 walk-to-strikeout ratio, is still decent. He posted a similar number (0.75) in 2007 when he hit 34 home runs with 102 RBIs, 95 runs scored and had an .896 OPS in 561 at-bats.

Berkman's flyball percentage (41.6) is also steadily increasing to a point where he's right in line with some of his more productive seasons; his career mark is 38.1.

As mentioned above, the "Big Puma" is a notoriously slow starter. However, with May upon us, consider that he hit an unreal .471 last season in the month with nine dingers, 22 RBIs, 31 runs scored and a 1.409 OPS in 104 at-bats. So, there is some hope.

Ugh!

But with the good, comes the bad. In recent years, Berkman's line drive percentage has fluctuated like an earthquake tremor that just never stops shifting. Currently, he owns a 14.3 LD rate, which stands as a career low. It's especially low when you come to find that his career LD percentage is 20.0. Berkman hasn't registered a LD percentage over his career mark since his 2005 campaign when he notched 22.9 percent. It's an indicator that Berkman is losing a bit of power along with the ability to make direct contact on the ball; a deadly mixture in both reality and fantasy for someone that is counted on to mash.

He also seems to be falling behind in counts early and often as noted by his first-strike percentage coming in at a career-worst of 57.9. His contact rate (72.8) comes in at a career low, which happens to be 4.6 percentage points lower than his career mark of 77.4 percent.

By watching the 6-foot-1, 220-pound Rice University alum, most of his offensive deficiencies this season can be attributed to a noticeable decrease in his once lighting-quick bat speed.

He might have returned to the lineup Monday, but wrist injuries are rarely a promising sign for sluggers. He said his wrist feels "pretty good," per the Houston Chronicle, but it still might be a little sore. Wrist injuries can sap a slugger of his power; keep an eye on this situation. It's nothing to stress about, though, but merely something to keep in mind.

His age must be a concern, too. He turned 33 in February; typically power hitters start declining once they hit their 30s. He might have been able to put off Father Time so far, but he can't hold him off forever.

Fantasy Baseball Outlook

It's going to be tough to pry Berkman from fantasy owners; the price might still be too steep given how he caught fire in May last year. Fantasy owners likely will be aware of this.

Make a few offers on him; he would be worth picking up if you can strike the right deal. But in all likelihood, his owner is still going to want to hang on to him to see if he pulls his usual stunt in May.

KFFLians are saying....

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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