Impact Analysis: Hank Blalock, Texas Rangers

May 6, 2009 @ 14:30:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Tim Heaney

Following three subpar seasons, the Texas Rangers' Hank Blalock has resurfaced this year as a viable corner infielder option. In 94 at-bats this season, Blalock is hitting .266 with seven home runs, 19 RBIs, 16 runs scored and a .564 slugging percentage. Given his recent track record of injuries and disappointment, fantasy baseball managers should look hard into possibly selling Blalock while his value is still high.

There are three reasons why Blalock was still perceived as a promising fantasy player among some managers during the preseason. One: It's hard to forget his high pedigree. Prior to his rookie 2002 season, Blalock was ranked as the No. 3 prospect by Baseball America and the No. 1 prospect by Baseball Prospectus. He's still a guy that people associate with a high upside.

Two: People remember Blalock was a highly productive contributor from 2003 to 2005, averaging 28.7 home runs, 97.3 RBIs and 92.0 runs scored during that span.

Three: The 28-year-old plays in the most hitter-friendly park in the American League, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Although he was limited to only 105 home at-bats last season, Blalock posted a robust 1.025 OPS in Arlington. In 2007, he registered a .999 home OPS in just 110 at-bats.

Why sell now?

The main question is whether Blalock can stay healthy this year to post those gaudy numbers. Hampered by ongoing shoulder woes, Blalock was limited to an average of 233 at-bats over the past two seasons. In 2007, the Rangers infielder was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome in his shoulder and underwent surgery to reroute a nerve blocked by bone.

Following shoulder problems last year, the Rangers moved him to first base exclusively after he spent his entire career at third. Thanks to the presence of Chris Davis, Blalock has only appeared in two games at first base this year; he has been the designated hitter for the rest of his appearances in order to limit wear and tear on his body. Despite the Rangers taking a cautious approach with him, it's important to remember that Blalock has been plagued by shoulder problems since 2006. It's a potentially career-threatening issue.

In addition to his health, Blalock is also risky because he is historically a poor second-half performer, he has shown a drastic decrease in his percentage of line drives, and he has never hit left-handed pitchers well. The former San Diego prep star has recorded a lifetime .751 OPS in the second half compared to a .845 career OPS during the first half. Even though it's still early, Blalock's line-drive rates have plummeted from 21.4 percent in 2008 to 15.9 percent this season, a dangerous sign. The 28-year-old has never quite figured out lefties, either. This year he is hitting just .188 with a .525 OPS against southpaws, which falls right in line with his career numbers against them.

Why hold onto him?

Injuries aside, Blalock has been a productive player for two years and one month running. He posted a respectable .846 OPS in 2008 and a fine .901 OPS in 2007.

Thus far Blalock has been a little unlucky, holding a below-the-norm .247 BABIP. It's a sign that he could be due for a batting average boost from his current .266 mark if his luck improves. Additionally, Blalock is hitting the ball well despite the fact he's doing a poor job of controlling the strike zone (12 K's, 2 BB's). He has never been a walk machine, but he's capable of hitting better if he becomes a little more selective at the plate.

Blalock has also seen a sudden rise in his flyball rate, from 42.7 percent to 52.4 percent. A substantial increase in flyball rate can be a sign that a player is about to enjoy his best season in the home run department. During his 2003-05 heyday, the Rangers infielder never posted a slugging percentage higher than .522. Right now, he is slugging 42 points higher, albeit it's only after one month.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Blalock has long been a fantasy tease, and it's continuing. You should try to sell Blalock high if possible. Fantasy baseball is all about timing: This is a prime example.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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