Impact Analysis: Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

May 4, 2009 @ 14:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

One month into the season, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim outfielder Torii Hunter has plenty of reasons to be flashing that million dollar smile. For the month of April, Hunter connected for eight home runs, recorded 16 RBIs and posted a .325 clip in 86 at-bats. Furthermore, he tied for the AL lead with a .714 slugging percentage and was sixth in on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) with a 1.094 mark.

No stranger to hot starts, Hunter has hit more home runs (43), doubles (54) and triples (seven) in the month of April than in any other month over his 13-year career. He also drove in more runs (153) and stole more bases (31) in April as compared to the other five months of the season.

Hunter has been remarkably consistent when he is healthy, and there is no doubting his skill set. The question: Should you cement him into one of your outfield spots, or, based on his torrid April, attempt to trade him for more than he is worth?

Sell, sell, sell!

It is relatively safe to say that based on his history of hot starts, Hunter will not be able to perform at such a high capacity all season. In fact, over his career, his batting average has dropped from .272 in April to .264 in May, and his OPS has declined from .826 in April to .761 in May - though it went through similar fluctuations in the following months.

His 2009 flyball percentage (45.3) has made a huge jump over last season (34.8). A good indicator of a player's ability to hit home runs, it is likely that over the course of the season his flyball percentage will drop more towards his lifetime average of 35.8 percent. Also, his line-drive percentage has dropped from 18.9 (2008) to 17.3 (2009), closer to his average of 16.8 percent.

Isolated power (ISO) is used to determine a hitter's power output. Hunter's ISO is sitting at .360 as of Sunday, May 3. This fluky clip is sure to decline, considering Hunter's lifetime ISO average is .199.

Reasons to hold

It is no secret that Hunter, whose lifetime walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K) is 0.38, is a hacker; no pitch is bad enough for him to take a chop at.

In an effort to improve his plate discipline and draw more walks, Hunter is working on only swinging at pitches if they are in a specific zone. As a result his patience at the plate has improved, as evidenced by his 0.62 BB/K. He is also averaging 3.52 pitches per plate appearance, well above his 2.88 lifetime average.

Hunter's groundball rate is sitting at 37.3 percent, far better then his 47.3 percent career clip.

He is making contact 82.5 percent of the time (his lifetime mark is 76.7 percent). Additionally, his slightly below average .292 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is sure to pick up.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Hunter should eventually come back to earth, but even then he is still a solid fantasy option. If history has anything to say, try to fish around to see who will overpay for Hunter before he begins his probable May/second-half descent.

Hunter isn't someone you sell high on because you don't believe in any of his skills. If you can't flip him in a beneficial deal, you know with him you will get above-average power and good speed.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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