Impact Analysis: Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres

April 30, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Eric McClung
Edited by Tim Heaney

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on the World Baseball Classic. At least that appears to be the case for embattled San Diego Padres ace Jake Peavy. He insists his second WBC stint is not to blame for his slow start and that he is healthy.

The Friars ace has been hurt by walks and a very fluky .340 BABIP. Rather than going after hitters, Peavy has been nitpicking around the plate and throwing his curveball 5.3 percent more often than he did last year. In urgent need of a good performance, Peavy vowed to be more aggressive the next time out.

Patriot Act

Following the inaugural WBC, Peavy posted an ERA of 4.09 in 2006 while losing a career-high 14 games. Now after the second WBC, despite averaging better than a strikeout per inning, Peavy is again struggling early having allowed a minimum of one home run and two walks in four of his first five starts. He has surrendered at least three earned runs and six hits in each outing.

Peavy made two starts for Team USA, finishing 0-1 with a 14.40 ERA, allowing eight earned runs and five walks in five innings. In 2006, he pitched eight innings in two starts with a 3.38 ERA. The start of that season was also unkind to Peavy, as he suffered from shoulder tendonitis around the middle of the season, but he recovered in the final two months with a 2.97 ERA.

2009 trends

In his final two starts of April, Peavy allowed five or more runs in back-to-back starts for the first time since July 2006. Coincidence? Although Peavy's flyball rate is near his recent average, the home run rate is through the roof.

Though the Padres offense has shown early signs of improving, Peavy still lags behind in the run support category. He ranks 74th in the majors among pitchers with at least 20 innings thrown with an average of 5.46 support runs per nine frames. It's safe to say this could drop as the season goes on.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Trade options for Peavy owners are probably limited, but it might be worth a shot if you can obtain outstanding return value. However, the most likely scenario would be a swap for another underperformer - not very desirable. Due to the limited Padres offense, owners knew wins could be hard to come by but expected Peavy to deliver sharp numbers in strikeouts and ERA.

The stuff is there, but the luck and attitude are missing. Owners are best served riding it out or sitting Peavy in tougher matchups for the time being. To turn the corner, Peavy needs to reduce his walks and get back to pitching aggressively. The 2007 Cy Young winner is more than capable of turning this around. Pay attention to his next start Friday, May 1, to see if he implements any changes to his approach.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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