Impact Analysis: Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

April 29, 2009 @ 11:15:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Tim Heaney

Three years ago, Francisco Liriano was a fantasy baseball phenomenon. The southpaw in his rookie season became an overnight sensation, posting numbers that were reminiscent of Sandy Koufax. Prior to the All-Star break that season, Liriano went 10-1 with a 1.83 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and fanned 102 hitters in 88 1/3 innings.

However, the dream season came to a crashing halt in the second half when a torn elbow ligament was discovered in Liriano's left pitching elbow. Liriano, who missed all of 2007 due to Tommy John surgery, has since struggled to find his previous form. Unfazed by Liriano's inconsistent performance in 2008, many fantasy managers invested highly in the Twins lefty this preseason, confident that he is still an ace.

Hints of a downfall

Liriano went on a roll to finish the 2008 season after spending a bulk of the year at Triple-A Rochester. Following August 2, the Dominican lefty compiled a 6-1 record, with a 2.74 ERA and 60 strikeouts over a span of 65 2/3 innings. Liriano issued only 19 walks during that stretch. Based on his fine performance late in the season, there was reason to believe Liriano was starting to turn the corner in his return from Tommy John - hence the bullish optimism in Liriano's fantasy services during the spring.

Despite his late run, there were some warning signs that Liriano wasn't quite the same pitcher. The southpaw's groundball rate dropped drastically from 55.3 percent in 2006 to 41.6 percent in 2008. His diminishing groundball rate is producing more flyballs (40.3 percent in 2008 and 40.4 so far this year), and his annual opponents' contact rate has slowly climbed each season, up to 78.2 percent this year.

In addition, Liriano struggled with his location, and his slider wasn't moving with the same bite it had in 2007. His inflated strikeout-to-walk ratio, which went from 144-to-32 in 2006 to 67-to-32 in 2008, is a reflection of his mediocre command and the lack of sharpness in his stuff.

This season

Thus far, Liriano has fizzled out of the gate this season. In 28 1/3 innings, Liriano has gone 0-4 with a 6.04 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The worst part: Liriano hasn't fully delivered his trademark strikeouts to make up for his bad outings. The 25-year-old has fanned just 20 batters while issuing 11 walks thus far.

His current K/9 (6.35) and K/BB (1.82) ratios are the lowest of his career. His outing Tuesday, April 28 was his second quality start of the season (two earned runs in 6 2/3 IP), but it was still somewhat discouraging because he tallied only three strikeouts on the evening.

According to the radar gun, the velocity on Liriano's fastball has diminished from the mid-90s to the low 90s since he underwent Tommy John. Given that it has been more than two years since he was cut on, it's becoming less certain if Liriano will regain his lost velocity.

Liriano has been inconsistent in locating his fastball this season; he's throwing his diminished heat more often, too. With less mustard on his fastball, the Dominican can't get away with as many mistakes as he did in 2006. As mentioned earlier, Liriano doesn't quite have the break on his slider that he used to, and he is throwing his patented changeup less. Both his slider and changeup were Grade A-quality out pitches in 2006.

Optimism

There is still hope that Liriano can put it together and still become a frontline starter this year. The left-hander has been victimized by bad luck this year, as more of his baserunners (57.1 percent strand rate) have scored than you typically see from a pitcher with his WHIP.

His heat topped out at 93 mph in his latest mound trip, and his average velocity on both non-changeup pitches has increased slightly from his '08 performance.

His decreased velocity is not necessarily a death sentence. Two of the top lefty strikeout artists in the game, Johan Santana (New York Mets) and Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies), frequently operate in the low 90s. It's important to remember the Twins have forced Liriano to adopt a smoother delivery and are hoping that a more conservative, crafty approach will prolong his usefulness as a pitcher.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Liriano's strikeout and groundball rates are in decline for the second straight season. At this point, it doesn't look like he's anywhere close to returning to elite status. He'll need to make significant strides in his fastball command in order for him to be a Cy Young-quality starter again.

Based on what he has shown so far, Liriano is capable of being a solid third or fourth starter in MLB universe formats. His owners aren't going to get top value for Liriano now on the trade market right now, so they might be better off holding onto him to see if he can't catch lightning in the bottle again.

Optimal value for him could come after a few dominant starts; if his peripherals don't match his performances or indicate a long-term turnaround, you may be better off looking to sell him high. Until then, playing the matchups with Liriano may be the best course of action.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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