Impact Analysis: Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves

April 29, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Eric McClung
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

The Atlanta Braves could be out of excuses to keep 22-year-old stud pitching prospect Tommy Hanson from making his major league debut. Due to injuries and plain bad pitching, the back end of the Braves' starting rotation is running out of options. Injecting Hanson could add stability and a spark to a solid top three that includes sinkerballer Derek Lowe and hurler Javier Vazquez.

Farm

Hanson started this season with a dominant spring - a 2.45 ERA and 14 K's in 14 2/3 innings pitched. He was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett and through his first four starts, Hanson is 0-3 but posting a 2.18 ERA and dazzling 12.63 K/9. Beginning his fourth year in the minors, Hanson has compiled 402 strikeouts in 343 1/3 innings of work. Hanson has burned through each level of competition he has been pitted against.

The power righty features a mid-90s fastball, hard slider and a sharp hook. But Hanson can be as wild as he is electric - issuing walks and leaving pitches up when he has experienced troubles. In order to be successful at the next level, Hanson must stay balanced, keeping his control in check while continuing to throw fire.

Injuries

The future of veteran pitcher Tom Glavine (shoulder) is perhaps the biggest item in the way of Hanson but should be made clear soon. The 43-year-old left-hander is experiencing shoulder discomfort and unable to throw pain free. He has been playing long toss and should throw a bullpen session soon. His work will help Glavine decide to retire or continue rehabbing.

He has been encouraged by his recent work. Glavine has gone record that he does not want to prolong a comeback if he can't get back on the mound before long. Prior to the pain, Glavine had allowed just three earned runs in his 12 innings of spring training.

Pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes, 24, has not been successful in the big leagues due to control issues. This season, Reyes was first brought up to take Glavine's spot in the rotation. Dating back to last season, Reyes had been the loser of eight straight decisions before a recent impressive outing. He may be pitching with a sense of urgency; he may be the only pitcher, besides Glavine, who has a realistic shot at holding off Hanson.

Reyes struggled in his first 2009 big league start, allowing five earned runs while striking out four in 5 2/3 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates April 18. His next turn was skipped due to an off-day. He rebounded nicely Tuesday, April 28, going seven strong innings and giving up just three hits, one walk and one earned run while fanning seven.

Pitcher Charlie Morton has also had difficulty translating minor league success into major league wins. He was hit hard in 15 starts last season, struggling with walks and home runs allowed. Morton, also in Triple-A, has allowed 11 earned runs in 19 innings over his first three starts.

Another option could eventually be veteran Jorge Campillo (shoulder), once he returns from the DL. Campillo worked out of the bullpen to begin 2009 after numerous rocky starts at the end of last season. The 30-year-old has been flat thus far and has described his condition as a "dead arm"; his return date is unknown. He's unlikely to be a factor anyway.

Import Kenshin Kawakami, 33, has been worse each time out and has had problems keeping the ball down. He is a soft tosser who relies on craftiness rather than dominant stuff to get outs. For the time being, Kawakami's spot in the rotation appears to be safe. It's unlikely the Braves will turn away from him anytime soon, especially given their financial commitment to him.

Fantasy baseball outlook

In fantasy circles, Hanson in generally viewed as the pitching equivalent of Baltimore Orioles catching prospect Matt Wieters - already owned in deep leagues or shallow leagues with hawkish owners.

Hanson is likely floating around in shallow formats, where it's difficult to stash uncertain prospects, particularly pitchers, for lengthy periods. However, he might have been cut loose by shortsighted owners in deep mixed leagues. If Hanson is available in such a format, it's worth a shot to add and stash him immediately.

Current owners should hang tight, at least until the verdict on Glavine comes in. If Glavine makes it back, the Braves still have question marks. It's far from certain that the future Hall of Fame southpaw would remain healthy, anyway.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Dusty, at 08:18 on 04/29/09, says: Wow. I like the write-up on Hanson, but to say the starters are struggling this year is sort of crazy. I believe after last night, the Braves are tied for the league lead in quality starts with 12 in 20 games. Not to mention the Braves ace last year Jair Jurrjens who has a stellar 1.72 ERA in 31.1 innings so far this year is nowhere in the article. Agreed that Hanson would be a better option than Kawakami, but for a 3-year/$23 million deal, the Braves have to have a longer leash than just 4 starts.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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