Impact Analysis: Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

April 24, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips' early-season struggles may have some fantasy owners itching to oust the slumping slugger, but don't be so quick to pull the trigger.

Taking the pressure off

Through Tuesday, April 21, Phillips was in the midst of a 0-for-21 skid. Batting cleanup may have put too much pressure on him, so manager Dusty Baker moved him into the sixth slot for the game Wednesday, April 22. The move down in the lineup looks to have been a smart one, as Phillips has had three hits in his last seven at-bats.

While the demotion in the lineup may detract from Phillips' offensive output (mainly in runs scored), Baker insists that the move is only temporary, until Phillips starts hitting again.

Rotten luck

Part of Phillips' disappointing start can be attributed to plain old bad luck, as evidenced by his BABIP. A statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit, BABIP is based more on a hitter's luck rather than skill.

A hitter typically sets a precedent for BABIP, and any anomaly could indicate a future reversal or drop-off. Therefore, it is likely that Phillips' abnormally low .200 BABIP (through April 23) will improve and with it his overall line.

Positives

Despite his cold bat, Phillips has drawn 10 walks in 61 plate appearances, good for a 16.9 percent walk ratio which is far better than his career average.

When he is able to reach base, he is staying active, swiping two bags in two attempts.

Negatives

An increased amount of breaking balls and off-speed pitches have been giving Phillips trouble at the plate. Although he has only struck out eight times all season, an astounding 25 percent of his flyballs have not left the infield.

Fantasy baseball outlook

A move in the batting order has already boded well for Phillips. Additionally, his paltry BABIP will not stick all season, so an offensive turnaround could be just around the corner; however, it should be noted that hitters with below-average batting eyes (such as Phillips) often take longer to rebound.

Phillips is a young, talented player who has proven he can play at the major league level, so a rebound is likely. Now would be a great time to buy low, as Phillips' struggles so far may have some owners looking to move him. You know he gives you a potentially elite power-speed combo.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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