Impact Analysis: Nyjer Morgan, Pittsburgh Pirates

April 24, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Tim Heaney

At the moment, the surprise leader in stolen bases in the National League is Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Nyjer Morgan. Once a semi-pro hockey player, Morgan has brought an aggressive attitude to the top of a Pirates lineup � just ask Cincinnati Reds catcher Ramon Hernandez, who got railroaded by the 175-pounder at the plate recently. While it is still early in the season, speed is never out of style in fantasy baseball, and Morgan has the look of a potential breakout run scorer and bag thief.

Pillager of bases

Due to a lack of patience at the plate, Morgan is not the prototypical leadoff hitter. Over the last three years, Morgan has split time in the minor leagues and the major leagues. During that span, Morgan averaged 47.33 stolen bases per season, but his walk rate never reached double digits. Also, his strikeout rate is high for a non-power threat (1.33 homers per year).

Morgan has hit for average because he rarely goes outside of the strike zone and makes contact at a very high rate - taking advantage of the high amount of fastballs he sees. Morgan makes his living as a slap hitter, spraying groundball singles through the infield and using his legs to beat out throws, resulting in a very high BABIP.

Still, the major reason for his early success has been his 26.4 percent line-drive rate, a continuation of his 26.4 percent figure in limited time last year. As long as Morgan continues to work within the strike zone, he should keep posting a respectable, if unspectacular, batting average.

Gangway, lads!

Far and away the quickest burner on the roster, Morgan has little competition at the leadoff position or as the starting left fielder - at least for now. His primary challengers are currently top prospects in the Pirates farm system: outfielder Andrew McCutchen - a tweener (not quite a power hitter, not quite a speedster) - and outfielder/first baseman Steve Pearce, a power bat better suited at first base. Neither is expected to be called up until later in the season; the Pirates coaching staff has embraced Morgan's breakneck attitude and it's hard to imagine a better catalyst for the team.

A motley crew

Hitting in the two-hole is second baseman Freddy Sanchez, the winner of the 2006 NL batting title who is off to a hot start. Driving in Morgan are outfielder Nate McLouth, coming off a breakthrough season, and first baseman Adam LaRoche, who is shaking off the label of being one of the worst hitters in April. As long as the winds in the middle of the Pirates lineup stay strong, Morgan should continue to blow all over the bases.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Those in need of assistance in the speed columns may still find Morgan available on the waiver wire in shallow leagues. Keep in mind he is a limited fantasy contributor and a power liability.

While his .382 BABIP isn't too far off from his normal output there, it should experience a decline as the season goes on. Remember, he hasn't had more than 160 at-bats in an MLB season.

Owners can look to flip Morgan in a trade to a rival in need of stolen bases, where Morgan's value rests, for a good value. Playing time could be a concern if Morgan was to slide, but that should not deter any potential suitors from climbing aboard.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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