Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Burning Fantasy Baseball Questions - NL West

January 21, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Arizona Diamondbacks

After a breakout season, will shortstop Stephen Drew to take another step?

Last year Drew was the third shortstop ever to accumulate 40 doubles, 10 triples and 20 homers in a season. His line-drive percentage jumped from 16.5 to 22.6, and he slugged 128 points higher than in 2007. The next step for Drew is proving he can consistently produce at his 2008 level. That's not easy for the youngster to do, considering his peripherals. With his ceiling, it's a relatively safe bet that he's on his way, though.

Who plays more in the outfield: Eric Byrnes or Justin Upton?

The Diamondbacks have 11 million reasons to play the veteran Byrnes. He was a productive hitter over the past couple of years before his .209 average and injury-shortened season. He should get the bulk of the time. Upton, though, is the best young talent the club owns. Even though he struck out in 33 percent of his at-bats, he hit 15 homers and boasted an .816 OPS. Upton should rise like his brother. He probably won't be a regular right away, but he should indirectly make corner infielder Chad Tracy the odd man out.

After a solid second half in 2008, is second baseman Felipe Lopez fantasy-relevant again?

Lopez used to be valuable for two reasons: steals and homers. Those attributes have since evaporated. Since 2005 he has hit just 26 homers, total, in 1,701 at-bats, and last season he was successful in only half of his stolen base attempts (8-for-16). His second half was good, but he had only had 156 at-bats with the St. Louis Cardinals, with whom he was more aggressive and fortunate. Don't get beached by this ghost wave of fantasy's past.

Can the D-backs depend on Chad Qualls at closer?

If the Diamondbacks were OK with Brandon Lyon, then they should be elated with Qualls. In September Qualls went 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 7-for-7 in saves after becoming the closer. Splits reveal Qualls' streaky nature, though; at the time of the decision, Qualls was just their hottest reliever. Nevertheless, his 1.07 WHIP and 71 punchouts in 73 innings are comforting for a fireman. He's a good bet for 25 saves simply because of how long the D-backs stuck with Lyon.

Will Max Scherzer excel now that he's expected to be a full-time starter?

The big righty has monster strikeouts-per-nine-innings rates of 10.61 (majors) and 11.59 (minors), but his DL trip with shoulder fatigue last July heats up durability concerns. The club hopes to sign a veteran starter, then slide Scherzer into the fifth spot and limit his innings; including the Arizona Fall League, he has thrown a little more than 200 over his last two pro seasons combined. As a backend starter, he's more intriguing, but if he breaks down, we may see a switch back to the bullpen.

Colorado Rockies

Will third baseman Garrett Atkins reverse his power decline?

Over the past three years Atkins has dropped in average, homers, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and walks while his strikeouts have climbed. During the second half of last season he tailed off, batting .259 with just seven homers. With Ian Stewart waiting in the wings, Atkins seems pretty down and out. A bounce-back is only likely if unknown external factors contributed to the fall or have helped him turn it around. He could be overvalued.

Are fantasy players forgetting about shortstop Troy Tulowitzki?

Fantasy owners tend to reach at positions with little depth. However, no stretch is needed here. After returning from a hand injury in July, Tulowitzki surged to the tune of a .327 average and an .858 OPS in the second half. A sophomore slump is always a danger for young players, and Tulowitzki was making more contact and hitting the ball just as hard as he did in 2007. He probably won't reproduce that line, but he could be a value as an early midround selection.

Which former closer castoff will win the role: Huston Street or Manny Corpas?

Given his success in 2007 (2.08 ERA, 19 saves), Corpas may be the better option despite being ousted in '08. After losing weight and discovering a flaw in his mechanics, he could be poised for a rebound. But if the Rockies find that both are serviceable, the more experienced Street may get the nod. Street has 94 career saves and a tiny 1.07 WHIP, and he was reversing negative trends last year. The trade market may also give Colorado incentive to place Street in a more valuable position to maximize their return.

Was starting pitcher Aaron Cook's 2008 season an anomaly?

The anomaly here is the victories, a volatile category. A stellar first half showed a double-digit win total and an All-Star Game appearance, but he fell down to earth with a 4.71 second-half ERA. Cook's line, minus the wins, was nearly on par with his previous two seasons. He was more fortunate in the home run department, though, and he posted an unusually high K/9 (which still wasn't any good). Why expect a repeat?

Who will line up alongside Brad Hawpe in the Rockies' outfield?

Carlos Gonzalez, 23, is a five-tool talent and was the centerpiece of the Matt Holliday deal. He should play plenty in center, but he's still very raw. He'll be pressed by a more disciplined prospect with less upside in Dexter Fowler, who'll be 23 when the season starts.

In left there could be some platooning between Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith, although Spilborghs' .302 career average and .839 OPS should give him many more opportunities. In 688 big-league at-bats, the intriguing Spilborghs has 21 homers and 109 RBIs.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Will outfielder Matt Kemp enter the elite ranks in 2009?

"Elite" is relative, but Kemp's skills match up with the best. His .299 career batting average as a big-league greenhorn is impressive, and his power is beginning to creep. He's a line-drive hitter, so he may never hit 40 homers, but he makes up for it; his 35 steals from a year ago are the icing on the cake. With a full season under his belt, Kemp will be a hot ticket, and it may be justified.

Has Chad Billingsley emerged as a fantasy ace?

The 24-year-old reached 200 strikeouts for the first time last season and improved in ERA (3.14) and groundball-to-flyball rate (1.58). He also made strides in the walks-per-nine department (3.59). Now he has to do it consistently. The Dodgers have handed him the keys, and fantasy owners should do the same in a light-hitting NL West - but not as their No. 1 starter.

Is a bulky strikeout rate enough to make righty Jonathan Broxton a top fantasy closer?

Talent-wise, Broxton is as worthy as they come. He has punched out a career 11.43 batters per nine frames and boasts a 1.17 WHIP in 2008. He has one of the hardest fastballs in the major leagues, and his big size plays into the closer's mold. His makeup is still a little questionable, though. His ability screams top-five fantasy closer, but he must rein in his control, especially in pressure situations.

What will starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw's second season bring?

This 20-year-old major league sophomore faces larger-than-life expectations, but it's unlikely he'll live up to the billing in his second tour. The rookie has struggled to find the strike zone in his pro career and fails to go deep into games as a result. He'll probably dazzle at times, just don't expect an All-Star berth for a year or two.

San Diego Padres

Should trade rumors surrounding starting pitcher Jake Peavy concern us?

A Peavy owner concerned about this may need his or her prescriptions checked. The only thing to worry about was his dip in K/9, which was more evident on the road but is more of an overall worry. While Peavy's home-road splits were one-sided last year, they were nearly identical in 2007. Although he has been worse on the road in his career, he has dominated away in past, isolated seasons. The boost in run support might outweigh any pitching advantage at PETCO Park. With five more wins, Peavy might be a Cy Young Award candidate.

How much does PETCO Park devalue first baseman Adrian Gonzalez?

PETCO Park kills all hitters because of the dimensions and heavy ocean air. For Gonzalez's career, 38.2 percent of his batted balls have been fly balls. Last season he hit for a .788 home OPS but boasted a monstrous .946 mark on the road. In a different park he could be just a notch below the St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols. Expect a slight drop-off in power from last year's line because he hit an unusually high number of fly balls, and he's still in San Diego.

Does presumptive closer Heath Bell instill confidence in fantasy owners?

He shouldn't. The husky righty was worked hard (174 2/3 innings) in the past two years out of the 'pen with the Friars. In 2008 his ERA dropped a run and a half and his WHIP jumped from 0.96 to 1.20. He was 0-3 with a 6.18 ERA in the second half and admitted that he goes on emotional highs and lows. He has two career saves and is on a bad team.... Pass, and seek more upside.

How will outfielder Chase Headley respond in his first full major league campaign?

The switch-hitter improved incrementally in every month of his rookie season despite playing out of position. He hit well at every minor league level, with a .900 OPS. He's patient yet aggressive; he succeeds when he waits for his strike, not just any strike. Headley will continually improve his plate discipline in the majors. He should play to his strengths this go-round and win a spot on your deep fantasy bench.

Why must fantasy owners know about second baseman Matt Antonelli?

Before his horrid 2008 Triple-A campaign, in which he hit .215 with a .322 slugging percentage, the 23-year-old was regarded as one of the game's best second base prospects. With an impressive power-and-speed combo, he batted a combined .307, with an .895 OPS and 28 steals, at two levels in 2007. Despite a late-season cup of Joe, he will likely spend most of the year in Triple-A to regain his footing, especially with the recent signing of David Eckstein.

San Francisco Giants

Did starting pitcher Randy Johnson bring along his fountain of youth?

Even after 185 innings in 2008, the Unit can't shake off the critics. The move to San Francisco should help Johnson, who owns a 2.14 ERA and .236 opponents' average in his career at AT&T Park. The 45-year-old was lights out in the second half, going 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 86 innings. There's plenty of gas left in the tank - as long as he's healthy and in the NL.

Can Edgar Renteria take advantage of his return to the National League?

Renteria's two worst seasons of the last seven came as an American Leaguer. The offensive shortstop is a career .290 hitter and a year separated from an .860 OPS as a member of the Atlanta Braves. The three-time Silver Slugger Award-winner has a career .344 average and .903 OPS at AT&T Park in his 13-year career. Don't look for double-digit steals, but he'll likely be an undervalued middle infielder near the end of your draft.

Will closer Brian Wilson build on the improvements he made in the second half last year?

When a closer had a 4.62 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, you may expect 41 blown saves before you believe he converted 41 chances. Wilson's success may seem like a mystery. However, he improved his control in the second half; he also had an unusually high home run rate considering the relatively few fly balls he allowed. Despite the ratios, he was remarkably efficient in save chances. Don't expect 40 saves, but progress in other areas would make up for that, and the club upgraded a bit in the rotation and bullpen.

Is infielder Pablo Sandoval a legitimate mixed league option?

With eligibility at catcher, first base and third base in some leagues, Sandoval is a solid mixed league option for your bench. Known for having a live bat, there is no one suggesting that the Venezuelan can't hit, even for power. His poor glove work has been his main obstacle. The Giants plan to start the switch-hitter at third, but if he's a liability there, they'll rethink it. If he manages to bat 500 times, he will be a keeper.

Author Bio

David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.