Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Burning Fantasy Baseball Questions - NL Central

January 19, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By Thomas Griffenkranz
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Chicago Cubs

Where will outfielder Alfonso Soriano hit?

Moving Soriano from the leadoff spot is a topic that seems to surface every season. He has hit at least 28 dingers in seven straight seasons. Soriano has hit in the third and fifth spots in his career, never producing the same numbers as he does in the leadoff spot. Moving Soriano down would also hinder his stolen bases, which are already on the decline. Piniella has reassured the media that he still likes Soriano in the top spot for now as the vet tries to rebound from an injury-riddled 2008. No matter where Soriano hits, expect him to remain a top fantasy outfielder, but perhaps not a No. 1 if he doesn't lead off.

Will Carlos Marmol show that he's ready to become the closer?

The 26-year-old All-Star has nasty stuff and will slide nicely into the closer role with the departure of Kerry Wood (Cleveland Indians). Last season, with Wood on the disabled list, Marmol converted all three save opportunities. If Marmol should falter, the Cubs could insert a recently acquired insurance policy, former Florida Marlins closer Kevin Gregg. The strikeout-friendly Marmol should get plenty of save chances in Chicago, but due to his inexperience in the role, consider him a No. 2 closer.

Is Geovany Soto a can't-miss fantasy catcher?

In 2008, as a rookie, Soto burst onto the fantasy scene with 23 home runs and 86 RBIs. While he struggles a bit with plate discipline, Soto has as much home run potential as any backstop in the majors. However, Soto's power only blossomed in 2007 at Triple-A Iowa (26 homers in 385 at-bats), so the track record isn't really there. His raw power is enough to consider him a top fantasy catcher in 2009, but beware of drafting him prematurely since positional scarcity may result in Soto being overvalued.

Can starter Ryan Dempster duplicate that magical season?

He logged his highest innings total since 2002 after serving as Cubs closer for the previous three seasons; he began his career as a starter, though, so this may not be an issue. His role changes have not affected his ability to fan hitters (career 7.54 strikeouts per nine innings), but his 17-win performance will be tough to repeat. His skills make him no more than a midrange No. 3 fantasy pitcher.

How risky is a selection of outfielder Milton Bradley?

The injury magnet has had more than 400 at-bats in a season just twice in his career and is coming off a career campaign. In contrast, the move to Wrigley Field gives him another favorable home, and he reunites with friend and former Oakland Athletics hitting coach Gerald Perry. Still, Bradley's spotty track record makes him no better than a No. 5 outfielder that requires a contingency plan, but you'll have to draft him as more than that.

Cincinnati Reds

Should we expect second baseman Brandon Phillips to rebound?

While he may not replicate his 30-30 season of 2007, Phillips still has the ability to hit the ball out of the park. Despite missing the final few weeks of 2008 with a broken finger, Phillips still hit 21 homers and stole 23 bases. If the Reds have not acquired a cleanup hitter during the offseason, expect to see Phillips batting fourth on opening day. With his combination of speed and power, Phillips is a top fantasy second baseman - as long as you don't count on him for batting average.

Might phenom hurler Edinson Volquez come back down to earth?

It was a tale of two seasons for Volquez. At the break he was 12-3 with a 2.29 ERA - after the break, 5-3 with a 4.60 ERA. Who is the real Edinson Volquez? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle. After hitting a career high in innings pitched, Volquez seemed to tire down the stretch with high pitch counts. While he has the stuff of an ace, playing in a hitters' park on a team that struggles to score runs slightly decreases his fantasy value. Drafting him as a No. 2 fantasy pitcher is a risk.

Will outfielder Jay Bruce go from "prodigy" to "producer"?

Everyone's favorite prospect connected on 21 home runs but batted .254 in his first major league season. He tore up Triple-A Louisville in the two seasons before his arrival, yet in that time he mustered batting eye ratios similar to his 0.30 average in the bigs last year. While he's pretty much assured of 20 homers this year, he still needs to work on his discipline. Farm freaks will probably continue to overvalue him instead of selecting him as a No. 3 outfielder with almost boundless upside.

Is starter Aaron Harang ready to bounce back?

His 3.07 ERA in September was a positive sign. The power righty had a terrible season (6-17, 4.78 ERA) with solid bookends in April (2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) and September; his struggles were induced by a forearm strain and an impromptu four-inning relief appearance in May that corrupted his routine. He started acting like his old self after he adjusted his mechanics in August. Buying low on Harang as a No. 3 starter this year would be a sly move.

Houston Astros

Is last year's finger injury still a concern for outfielder Carlos Lee?

Lee should be ready for spring training and is expected to start hitting off a tee soon. Even coming off his malady, Lee remains one of the most consistent run producers in the majors. His 2008 campaign marked the first time he played in fewer than 153 games since 2002. Lee's recovery should encourage you to select him in his normal second-round range, though be sure to stay tuned to further updates.

Can outfielder Michael Bourn develop into a leadoff man?

In 2008 the speedster hit just .229 with a .288 on-base percentage. He was eventually removed from the top spot, where he had a measly .279 on-base percentage all season. He has a career major league batting eye ratio of 0.38; however, he recently hit .314 with a .402 on-base percentage in the Dominican Winter League while improving his discipline. It's a small sample size, but it may be enough to eventually give him another shot in the role - later rather than sooner, though.

Does the club's rotation house any fantasy valuable names besides Roy Oswalt?

With a home ERA of 2.96 in the last two seasons, southpaw Wandy Rodriguez is a matchup play but could be owned in deep leagues. He has improved his K rate in each of the last two seasons. Starters Brandon Backe, Mike Hampton, Chris Sampson, Russ Ortiz and Brian Moehler are either injury prone or have little upside. Promising righty Felipe Paulino was sidelined for the entire 2008 season, but Houston's uninspiring backend options may give way to Paulino if healthy. Don't bank on it, though.

How will the Astros fill the hole at the hot corner?

With the departure of free agent Ty Wigginton, the current "solution" is a platoon between Aaron Boone and Geoff Blum. Both are part-time players who don't offer much value in mixed leagues. Farmhand Chris D. Johnson, Houston's third sacker of the future, was invited to spring training and should compete for a chance to break up that arrangement. Last year he hit 12 homers at Double-A Corpus Christi but had a .218 clip at Triple-A Round Rock. Make Johnson a watch list entry, nothing more.

Milwaukee Brewers

Does closer Trevor Hoffman still have it?

At 41 and coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, Hoffman makes you wonder if he can still close games at the major league level. In 2008 he converted 30 of 34 save chances on a team that won just 63 contests. Hoffman struggled in the first half but turned it around after the break with a 1.59 ERA. Though he doesn't have a legit fastball to complement his changeup anymore, Hoffman has virtually no competition for the closer's role. He should get plenty of save chances in Milwaukee, which ranked fourth in the majors with 71 opportunities last year.

Will Yovani Gallardo put his ACL tear behind him and become a fantasy ace?

Big things were expected of Gallardo in 2008, but he made just four starts. He has electric stuff and the makeup to be a staff ace. Gallardo has plenty of upside, but he's just 23 and has pitched less than 150 major league innings the past two seasons combined; he may not be ready to step up to the 200 innings expected of a staff ace. That being said, a healthy Gallardo could outperform his draft stock as a No. 3 fantasy starter.

Is this the year that second baseman Rickie Weeks delivers?

Weeks has failed to come through on his potential thus far while also suffering wrist, thumb and knee injuries in the last few years. During the past two seasons Weeks has struck out 231 times, with a batting average of just .234. Last July the Brewers acquired Ray Durham to platoon with Weeks, which may hint at their confidence in him. As he comes off knee surgery in October, Weeks may need to improve on his plate discipline to stave off prospect Alcides Escobar. Weeks is a classic boom-or-bust fantasy player, but he comes with less risk this year.

How long before the Brew Crew turns to Mat Gamel at third base?

Gamel is one of the Brewers' top offensive prospects, hitting 20 home runs and 99 RBIs in the minors before getting called up to Milwaukee late last season. Bill Hall is the starter at third base and should be there coming out of spring training. After hitting 35 home runs in 2006, he returned to earth with only 29 in two seasons since and still struggles to figure out righties. If Hall continues to struggle, expect the Brewers to call upon Gamel early in 2009.

What happened to outfielder Corey Hart in September?

Saying Hart struggled in September is an understatement. He hit just .173 in September with an alarming 0.14 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Hart is a free swinger prone to streaks and slumps; that was never more evident than late last season. A more concrete reason was his batting average on balls in play in September, an anemic .213 compared to his season average of .298. He still had solid numbers, with 20 home runs, 91 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. Hart should not be considered more than a No. 3 fantasy outfielder but will probably be drafted as more.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Was outfielder Nate McLouth a flash in the pan?

McLouth enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, setting career highs across the board. He charged out of the gates last season but struggled after the break, hitting just seven of his 26 dingers. The deadline trades of outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady rid him of most of his support, as he hit .226 in August and just four homers afterward. He may remain atop the order for 2009, but don't bank on a repeat despite his power-speed skills. Consider him a weak No. 2 fantasy outfielder.

Will first baseman Adam LaRoche produce before the All-Star break?

LaRoche is starting to develop a pattern of taking the first half of the season off, then turning it on after the All-Star Game. In 2007 LaRoche hit .239 before the break and .312 after; in 2008, .251 and .304. Despite his first-half struggles, LaRoche has averaged 26 home runs and 87 RBIs during the past three seasons. When drafting him, fantasy owners should accept the likelihood of this pattern continuing. His peripherals suggest little difference, so it's likely a matter of personal discipline.

Is there any hope that starters Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny will rebound?

Snell's 2008 batting average on balls in play was .358, and he walked 4.87 hitters per nine frames. While still boasting the ability to make hitters whiff, Snell needs to develop a consistent third pitch and be more aggressive early in at-bats. Snell's 3.67 September ERA was a promising step.

Gorzelanny seemingly walked the entire league and posted low K rates. A strained tendon in his left middle finger hindered his progress, but it was still ugly before that. He lost 15 pounds this offseason and has done strengthening exercises on his left shoulder.

If you're forced to take a risk on either pitcher in deep drafts, go with Snell for the strikeout upside.

When will outfielder Andrew McCutchen make his big-league debut?

McLouth will patrol center field, and Nyjer Morgan has the inside track in left field - but will Pittsburgh really keep outfielder Brandon Moss (knee) as the starter in right field? McCutchen compiled 50 RBIs and 34 stolen bags at Triple-A Indianapolis last year with Bay and Nady still in tow. What else can he prove? The Pirates will probably stall his arrival, but when he surfaces, be quick to the waiver wire in all leagues.

Can third baseman Andy LaRoche blossom in the Steel City?

The other LaRoche hasn't shown much with either the Pirates or the Los Angeles Dodgers (.184 clip in the bigs). His lock on the starting job is the best thing going for him right now. LaRoche has been working to regain coordination in his swing, and the 25-year-old will be baptized by fire. Maybe that .517 career minor league slugging percentage will arise. NL-only crowds should be the first to test him out this year.

St. Louis Cardinals

Are we still worried about first baseman Albert Pujols' elbow?

Pujols' .357 average and 2008 monthly splits would scream an emphatic no. The National League MVP underwent nerve transposition surgery on his elbow in October; he started swinging in workouts in December and has also begun throwing. Expect Pujols to be a top-three fantasy pick this year.

Is outfielder Ryan Ludwick a one-year wonder?

He isn't when it comes to his power potential. In his sporadic big-league career, Ludwick has averaged one homer for every 18.1 at-bats, and it wasn't until the last two seasons that he had full-time work in the majors. The .299 average, however, probably isn't here to stay per his .349 BABIP last season and poor discipline. You can still be comfortable picking him as a power-specializing No. 3 outfielder this year.

Is Chris Perez the Cards' best option at closer?

Perez saved seven games in 11 opportunities after taking over for Jason Isringhausen last season. While Perez is one of the best relief prospects in baseball, hard-throwing right-hander and converted catcher Jason Motte is also in the mix; reliever Ryan Franklin performed well in an interim fashion last year. Manager Tony La Russa recently said he would consider using former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter (shoulder) if that would keep him healthy. Draft Perez as a low-end No. 3 because he has the most potential, but be prepared to hit the waiver wire if a concrete solution arises.

Can shortstop Khalil Greene recapture his offensive promise?

Leaving PETCO Park was a good start; Greene posted home clips of .210, .216 and .215, respectively, in the last three years. He had three monthly averages of .214 or worse last year and broke his hand after punching a storage chest. Before 2008, though, he had at least 15 dingers in four consecutive seasons, including his standout 27-tater 2007. Counting on Greene for batting average help is never a good idea, but he offers power potential from a middle infielder spot in deep leagues.

Should we expect to see outfielder Colby Rasmus in the majors?

The case for Rasmus (knee) is building. He bulked up this offseason, and La Russa hinted he believes Rasmus will be ready once he fully rehabs his knee. He spent some time on the minor league DL and mired in a slump last year while retooling his batting approach, but he escaped Triple-A Memphis with 11 homers and 15 steals in 331 at-bats. He'll likely be drafted in deep leagues as a great upside choice in the last few rounds.