Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Burning Fantasy Baseball Questions - NL East

January 14, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Eric McClung
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Atlanta Braves

Will a return to the NL turn things around for starter Javier Vazquez?

There is potential for better days ahead for Vazquez, who is coming off a disappointing season that frustrated many a fantasy owner. Vazquez is prone to rocky starts, but his high strikeout rate differentiates him from other pitchers available in the second half of the draft. Shifting to the NL (and Turner Field, where he has been successful) should benefit him. He's very durable to boot. Consider him a sound No. 3 fantasy pitcher.

Is outfielder Jeff Francoeur really that bad?

There are a lot of red flags attached to Francoeur. Over the last three seasons, he has been swinging at pitches in the strike zone less often while still hacking at pitches outside. The steep drop in isolated power, which measures extra-base hits, is alarming. There are some signs of hope; Frenchy has been striking out slightly less often, and his .239 average is a bit of an anomaly. However, Francoeur is a risky selection and only wortha flier in the final rounds.

Can Mike Gonzalez handle Atlanta's closer role by himself?

Last season, seven Braves relievers totaled a league-low 26 saves. Gonzalez led the way with 14, including seven in September, in his return from Tommy John surgery. The strong finish helped solidify him as closer. His primary competition will come from Rafael Soriano, but the righty is coming off elbow surgery. Gonzalez has been successful in the past (24 saves in 24 chances with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2006) and offers value as a No. 2 fantasy closer.

What can we expect from pitcher Tom Glavine?

Technically, the southpaw isn't a Brave, but it seems likely that he'll re-sign. Glavine started only 13 games last season and is coming off elbow and shoulder surgeries. Reports have him ahead of schedule in his rehab and throwing off a mound soon. Glavine, who will be 43 years old on opening day, has never much of a strikeout pitcher and can likely be overlooked on draft day. Consider him spot starter when the matchup is right, although one should never count out the crafty vet.

Who else will play outfield?

The Braves' outfield was in flux for much of 2008. Three prospects should eventually shake it up. Outfielder Jason Heyward is considered one of the top power-hitting prospects in baseball. He's only 19, though. Center fielder Gorkys Hernandez, 21, would provide the Braves with some much needed speed. Don't forget: Jordan Schafer, 22, is still one of the club's top prospects, with elite talent. Watch for them.

In the meantime, several forgettable names (Gregor Blanco, Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson and Brandon Jones) are expected to plug holes. Don't rule out a trade or signing of someone like Adam Dunn.

Florida Marlins

How would the move of shortstop Hanley Ramirez to the No. 3 spot in the order affect him?

Ramirez may be best suited for the three-hole. He has climbed in isolated power and homerun-to-fly ball ratio each season. The biggest concern with losing the leadoff spot is a decline in stolen bases opportunities. Last year, he ran less anyway, and his chances for RBIs would increase. He has hit third in 55 career games, hitting .290 and swiping 14 bags. Fear not, Ramirez is still worthy of consideration with the No. 1 pick.

Is Ricky Nolasco a legitimate fantasy ace?

Can you keep a secret? Nolasco has even more upside. The 26-year-old is coming off a dream season, going from middle relief to staff ace and winning 15 games. From June 10 on, Nolasco punched out seven or more in 11 of 21 starts, surrendered four or more runs on only two occasions and walked more than one only once. The only negative was a high rate of home runs allowed. His outstanding control and improved dominance keep his ceiling high, though.

Who will man the corner-infield spots?

The trade of first baseman Mike Jacobs may trigger infielder Jorge Cantu to shift from third to first. Cantu regained his form and set a career high in home runs last year. That would open the door for third baseman Dallas McPherson, a left-handed slugger who slammed 42 home runs for Triple-A Albuquerque. However, he's working on his last chance to impress. Gaby Sanchez is waiting in the wings at first if McPherson falters. Both are deep sleeper picks for 2009.

Is Matt Lindstrom ready to be the closer?

The trade of former closer Kevin Gregg promises Lindstrom will get the first crack at finishing games for the Marlins in 2009. Lindstrom took over as the closer in September; he finished with five saves, allowing only two hits and two walks in 8 1/3 innings pitched. Lindstrom will pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, where he could gain some early confidence. Figure Lindstrom as a low-priced No. 3 fantasy closer with some upside.

Can outfielder Cameron Maybin hold down the leadoff spot?

A top prospect with blistering speed, Maybin has a very high ceiling. Analyzing his minor league stats shows a high batting average on balls in play; he hits line drives and can beat out groundballs. He can take walks but also strikes out a lot. Maybin has added weight, but improved plate discipline is his key to remaining at the top of the lineup, which is in turn the key to Ramirez remaining in the third spot. Consider Maybin a reserve fantasy outfielder who could offer a solid contribution in the speed column.

New York Mets

Can Francisco Rodriguez save 60 games for the Mets, too?

It's impossible to project 50 saves for any closer, let alone 60. Rodriguez had never saved 50 games prior to nailing down major league-record 62 last season. The Mets created 72 save opportunities, a normally high mark but one that pales in comparison to the ridiculous 89 the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim made. K-Rod saw a big drop in strikeouts per nine innings, and his batting average against continues to climb. Setup man J.J. Putz has 101 career saves and could poach a few away from Rodriguez if called upon.

Is K-Rod enough to push starter Johan Santana to 20 wins?

Santana might have two Cy Young Awards, but he has won 20 games only once, back in 2004. In 2008, the bullpen blew six potential wins for Santana, which would have given him a total of 22. Even with the additions of Rodriguez and Putz, it's impossible to expect perfection out of a bullpen. Santana's WHIP and batting average against have been climbing, so the consensus No. 1 fantasy pitcher could be a bit overrated in 2009.

Is first baseman Carlos Delgado back?

Delgado's success last season came from a big jump in line drives. However, his low isolated power, which was 20 points below his career average, plants the seed of doubt for 2009. Delgado turns 37 in June, but at least he is recovered from his wrist problems. He is still a linchpin in one of the better lineups in baseball. Delgado could be a low-level No. 1 fantasy first baseman but is ideally a corner man.

He isn't the closer, so is J.J. Putz worth a fantasy draft pick?

Obviously, any rumblings of an injured Rodriguez makes Putz a must-add - or a smart handcuff. The deeper the league, the more valuable setup pitchers become. They can pick up the occasional win or save while posting impressive WHIP and averaging a strikeout or more per inning. Putz isn't in an ideal position, but he still has value.

Philadelphia Phillies

Is shortstop Jimmy Rollins still worth a first-round choice?

The drop in power numbers a season ago was not a sign of serious decline; rather, it was a return to his 2001-05 performance level. Rollins still has the tools of a great leadoff hitter; he cut down on strikeouts, took more walks and remained a terrific basestealer, setting career bests in each department. His fly-ball rate was unusually low, too. J-Roll, 30, is on the short list of top fantasy shortstops and is probably worthy of a late first-round pick.

How much will second baseman Chase Utley's hip injury affect him?

Coming off hip surgery and questionable for Opening Day, Utley may have wary owners take a pass, creating the possibility for a great value. Utley was on pace for a career season and arguably the NL MVP until the hip injury slowed him. He'll probably start slowly, with his first few weeks serving as "spring training." Second base is somewhat thin, with a steep drop-off in power after the top options are taken. The gamble is worth it, if the price is right.

How much does the move to Philly help outfielder Raul Ibanez?

The move to Citizens Bank Park should give him a boost - it definitely aids the home run department. Ibanez, who turns 37 in June, loads the top six in the Phillies' lineup with left-handed hitters, but he hits southpaws fairly well. Like his predecessor, left fielder Pat Burrell, Ibanez isn't the best defender and may also lose a few late-inning at-bats. A consistent producer, regard Ibanez as a serviceable No. 3 fantasy outfielder or an excellent value as a No. 4.

Which Brett Myers can we expect to take the mound?

There is no question that Myers is a risky selection. Last season, following a demotion to the minors, Myers looked to be back on track, only to implode again, this time in the postseason. Excluding his stint as a closer in 2007, his K/9 is declining, his walk rate is going up, and he struggles to keep the ball in the ballpark. Myers is simply too erratic to invest at his normal price.

Should we expect outfielder Jayson Werth to build on his breakout year?

Playing time and good health were all Werth needed to produce career highs in home runs, RBIs and stolen bases. With the exception of a huge spike in home run-to-fly ball ratio, many of his peripherals were around his career averages. Werth, who projects to start in right field, is certainly capable of continuing his success.

Washington Nationals

Will third baseman Ryan Zimmerman demonstrate that he's past his shoulder injury?

In some ways, he already has. Zimmerman, 24, returned from a small labrum tear in his left shoulder and ended the season well. In August and September, he hit 49 points higher than he did before the All-Star break. Playing for Nationals may devalue him in the eyes of many owners, so there's potential value here. Zimmerman's home run-to-fly ball ratio has remained constant over his career, so his power is real; he homered five times in September. He also has incentive to convince the Nats that he's worthy of a multi-year deal.

Can Joel Hanrahan nail down the Nats' save chances for the entire season?

Moving him from the rotation to the bullpen has been a positive one. After becoming the closer in August, Hanrahan collected nine saves, blowing three. Hanrahan added velocity to his fastball and slider. He has cut down on walks and seen sharp improvements in K/9 and batting average against. Hanrahan must cut down on homers allowed, but he remains unopposed. On draft day, Hanrahan can be had for a cheap price - a potentially great value pick for saves.

Should we expect outfielder Elijah Dukes to take another step forward?

Injury may have been the only thing that kept Dukes from breaking out last season. While his rate of strikeouts may keep his batting average from approaching .300, he takes walks and can hit the ball out of the ballpark. Dukes can also swipe some bases, providing owners some solid numbers across the board. Consider him a low-end No. 5 fantasy outfielder with big upside.

Is there any fantasy value in the Nats' rotation?

Probably not on draft day, but there's name worth paying attention to once the season starts. John Lannan is a young, soft-tossing lefty with limited upside. Scott Olsen, acquired from the Florida Marlins, has been headed the wrong way in velocity, K/9 and fly-ball percentage. Daniel Cabrera, also a new face, has been eroding with steep declines in K/9 and increasing in batting average against. Perhaps they deliver, but the arms to watch for are those of prospects Jordan Zimmermann and, to a lesser extent, Ross Detwiler.

Author Bio

Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung