World Baseball Classic and fantasy baseball players

January 16, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Tim Heaney

Editor's Note: KFFL writer Jack O'Brien contributed to this report.

Should fantasy baseball owners be wary of those who participate in the World Baseball Classic?

With only one Classic in the books, it's impossible to draw any concrete conclusions from the data. However, after some examination, the numbers reveal a couple of hypotheses:

• The WBC may have had a greater effect on major leaguers who toss the rawhide than those who wield the wood.
• It's possible that starting hurlers in Major League Baseball were affected significantly more than relievers.

If this is true, it wouldn't be a surprise because we know that, from year to year, pitchers are less reliable than hitters.

Potential reasons? In the WBC, some, if not all, pitchers were:

• not afforded the normal routines of spring training to prepare their bodies, work on pitches and rebuild arm strength
• forced to work in games with more meaning and pressure and thus required to dial up the intensity - perhaps before their arms were ready
• adding to a prior heavy workload, increasing the potential for overuse or injury

However, do not forget that other factors may have easily played a role in any notable decline, including: (1) previously developed injuries or precursors to them, (2) changes of scenery, (3) adjustments made by hitters and (4) just plain old bad pitching. Pitchers who exert a lot of effort in their delivery are more likely to be subject to adverse effects, too.

The topic deserves scrutiny. Some WBC starters endured poor beginnings to the season following the WBC, if not the entire campaign or more. Boo-boos felled others. In general, the more work a pitcher received in the WBC, the more noticeable the change in performance.

However, the MLB brass took a step toward giving WBC players more time for post-Classic preparation by pushing back the start of the regular season to April 6. Last year, the full slate started March 31.

Again, the potential fallout isn't beyond question. Fantasy baseball players shouldn't automatically dismiss pitchers who will or have played in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. Don't rule it out as a factor, though.

When you're deciding between two arms, and all else is even, it might be a smart move to choose the one who didn't represent his nation this spring.

Johan Santana | 2006 WBC innings: 8 1/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	MIN	33	3.55	0.94	12.27	0.82	231 2/3	2.87	0.97	9.25	1.75
2006	MIN	32 1/3	4.45	1.36	7.79	2.78	233 2/3	2.77	1.00	9.44	1.81
2007	MIN	40	3.60	1.08	10.13	2.48	219	3.33	1.07	9.66	2.14

Santana is a notoriously slow starter to begin with, but it's worth noting his unusually low rate of K's per nine innings at the beginning of the season. He also reached a career high in innings in '05. Then again, he bested that mark in '06.

Jake Peavy | 2006 WBC innings: 8

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	SD	35 2/3	1.77	0.90	10.35	1.51	203	2.88	1.04	9.58	2.22
2006	SD	31 1/3	5.17	1.28	6.89	2.01	202 1/3	4.09	1.23	9.56	2.76
2007	SD	39 1/3	2.06	1.07	10.53	2.97	223 1/3	2.54	1.06	9.67	2.74

Peavy was hesitant to blame his poor beginning to '06 on his participation in the WBC. He said he felt healthy. He went through shoulder and rib maladies at the end of '05, but they're unlikely to have carried over. However, the righty acknowledged a bout of tendonitis early in '06 that was initially difficult to overcome. Peavy recorded his lowest groundball-to-flyball ratio and highest flyball percentage - by far - that year.

Carlos Zambrano | 2006 WBC innings: 6 2/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	CHC	31 1/3	4.31	1.21	7.76	3.45	223 1/3	3.26	1.15	8.14	3.47
2006	CHC	33 2/3	5.35	1.72	10.16	6.68	214	3.41	1.29	8.83	4.84
2007	CHC	34 1/3	5.77	1.63	6.55	4.98	216 1/3	3.95	1.33	7.36	4.20

Big Z didn't get off to a hot start in '05, either. He pitched a career high in innings that season, too. It was remarkable how much trouble he had with his control in '06, though. He posted his worst walks-per-nine-innings rate - by far - since 2002. Hopefully it's just coincidence, but his WHIP just hasn't been the same.

Javier Vazquez | 2006 WBC innings: 8

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	ARI	28	6.11	1.57	9.00	2.57	215 2/3	4.42	1.25	8.01	1.92
2006	CHW	27	3.67	0.93	6.67	1.67	202 2/3	4.84	1.29	8.17	2.49
2007	CHW	24	3.75	1.21	7.88	3.38	216 2/3	3.74	1.14	8.85	2.08

Vazquez is evidence that, in fact, there may be little evidence to support negative impact of the WBC. Vazquez has been emblematic of durability throughout his career. He moved to the tougher league and another dangerous ballpark. He was off to a fine start, and any differences in full-season performance could be attributed to the move.

Kelvim Escobar | 2006 WBC innings: 7 2/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	LAA	13	2.77	1.38	9.69	4.85	59 2/3	3.02	1.11	9.50	3.17
2006	LAA	29	3.41	1.24	7.14	2.17	189 1/3	3.61	1.28	6.99	2.38
2007	LAA	24 2/3	3.28	1.18	6.57	3.28	195	3.40	1.27	7.36	3.04

Escobar baffles fantasy owners. He has dazzling talent but can't stay healthy. After missing most of '05, he pitched what was essentially a full season in '06. What? He did throw his lowest strikeouts-per-nine-innings mark since 1999, though.

Bartolo Colon | 2006 WBC innings: 14

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	LAA	31 1/3	3.73	1.31	6.61	3.73	222 2/3	3.48	1.16	6.35	1.74
2006	LAA	14	7.07	1.93	5.79	2.57	56 1/3	5.11	1.46	4.95	1.76
2007	LAA	14	1.93	0.86	7.71	0.64	99 1/3	6.34	1.62	6.23	2.31

Colon won the AL Cy Young Award in '05, but he suffered a shoulder strain in the postseason and didn't pitch again. Some with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim felt he pitched in the WBC before he was physically ready. It's funny: In October '05, management seemed convinced that the injury didn't cause any damage, and there was the outside possibility that he could have returned to the playoff roster.

Freddy Garcia | 2006 WBC innings: 7 1/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	CHW	35	2.83	1.00	4.89	2.31	228	3.87	1.25	5.76	2.37
2006	CHW	27 2/3	5.86	1.59	5.86	4.88	216 1/3	4.53	1.28	5.62	2.00
2007	PHI	14 1/3	5.65	1.60	10.67	2.51	58	5.90	1.60	7.76	2.95

In '05, Garcia pitched the second most innings of his career; then, he tossed 21 more innings in three starts of the Chicago White Sox's triumphant World Series pursuit. Take a break, Freddy. It might not have been such a good idea to represent Venezuela in the WBC that spring.

Dontrelle Willis | 2006 WBC innings: 5 2/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	FLA	35	1.29	0.83	6.43	1.54	236 1/3	2.63	1.13	6.47	2.09
2006	FLA	31 2/3	3.31	1.23	5.97	3.41	223 1/3	3.87	1.42	6.45	3.34
2007	FLA	37	5.35	1.59	7.54	2.43	205 1/3	5.17	1.60	6.40	3.81

The D-Train didn't pitch much in the '06 WBC. He also didn't experience any great decline in performance until - as many fantasy owners remember - '07. Chalk up much of Willis' fall-off to poor mechanics.

Roger Clemens | 2006 WBC innings: 8 2/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	HOU	35	1.03	0.89	9.25	2.06	211 1/3	1.87	1.01	7.88	2.64
2006	HOU	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	113 1/3	2.30	1.04	8.10	2.30
2007	NYY	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	99	4.18	1.31	6.18	2.82

The Rocket has a red glare, but his bombs didn't burst in anyone's air until midseason. The '06 campaign marked the first of two in which Clemens waited to see who would pamper him the most. The delay perhaps allowed him to avoid any WBC pitfalls; any fall-off is strictly because of age - or a change in his "vitamin" regimen.

Francisco Liriano | 2006 WBC innings: 5 1/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	MIN	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	23 2/3	5.70	1.10	12.55	2.66
2006	MIN	14 1/3	3.77	1.53	13.19	2.51	121	2.16	1.00	10.71	2.38
2007	MIN	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Oliver Perez | 2006 WBC innings: 4

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	PIT	26 2/3	6.41	1.76	9.11	6.08	103	5.85	1.67	8.48	6.12
2006	PIT/NYM	28 2/3	7.53	2.16	7.85	7.22	112 2/3	6.55	1.75	8.15	5.43
2007	NYM	23 1/3	3.86	1.29	10.03	2.70	177	3.56	1.31	8.85	4.02

Erik Bedard | 2006 WBC innings: 4

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	BAL	31 2/3	2.84	1.17	6.82	1.42	141 2/3	4.00	1.38	7.94	3.62
2006	BAL	31 2/3	3.69	1.42	5.40	2.58	196 1/3	3.76	1.35	7.84	3.16
2007	BAL	34	6.09	1.53	11.12	3.44	182	3.16	1.09	10.93	2.82

Carlos Silva | 2006 WBC innings: 5 2/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	MIN	21	3.00	1.33	3.86	0.43	188 1/3	3.44	1.17	3.39	0.43
2006	MIN	29 2/3	10.31	1.69	2.73	0.91	180 1/3	5.94	1.54	3.49	1.60
2007	MIN	29	3.10	1.52	5.90	2.17	202	4.19	1.31	3.97	1.60

Daniel Cabrera | 2006 WBC innings: 7 1/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	BAL	20	7.65	1.95	8.10	5.85	161 1/3	4.52	1.43	8.76	4.85
2006	BAL	25 1/3	5.68	1.70	9.95	8.17	148	4.74	1.58	9.55	6.32
2007	BAL	38	4.50	1.45	8.53	4.26	204 1/3	5.55	1.54	7.31	4.76

Joel Pineiro | 2006 WBC innings: 8 2/3

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	SEA	20	5.85	1.45	5.85	3.15	189	5.62	1.48	5.10	2.67
2006	SEA	29	4.97	1.48	5.28	3.41	165 2/3	6.36	1.65	4.73	3.48
2007	BOS/STL	9 2/3	2.79	1.66	3.72	4.66	97 2/3	4.33	1.39	5.53	2.40

Chan Ho Park | 2006 WBC innings: 10

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	TEX/SD	30 1/3	3.86	1.29	7.42	4.75	155 1/3	5.74	1.67	6.55	4.54
2006	SD	30 1/3	5.34	1.42	7.12	1.78	136 2/3	4.81	1.39	6.32	2.90
2007	NYM	4	15.75	2.00	9.00	4.50	4	15.75	2.00	9.00	4.50

Odalis Perez | 2006 WBC innings: 8

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	LAD	29 2/3	3.64	1.08	5.46	2.43	108 2/3	4.56	1.26	6.13	2.32
2006	LAD/KC	25 2/3	5.61	1.56	5.26	2.45	126 1/3	6.20	1.58	5.77	2.21
2007	KC	28 2/3	6.91	1.81	4.40	2.83	137 1/3	5.57	1.66	4.19	3.28

Jae Weong Seo | 2006 WBC innings: 14

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	NYM	11	3.27	0.91	4.91	0.82	90 1/3	2.59	1.11	5.88	1.59
2006	LAD/TB	23 2/3	5.70	1.44	6.46	2.66	157	5.33	1.61	5.04	3.21
2007	TB	23 2/3	9.51	2.15	4.56	3.04	52	8.13	1.92	4.85	2.77

Esteban Loaiza | 2006 WBC innings: 9

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	WAS	32 2/3	4.13	1.26	7.99	3.03	217	3.77	1.30	7.18	2.28
2006	OAK	18 1/3	8.35	2.13	2.95	4.42	154 2/3	4.89	1.42	5.64	2.33
2007	OAK/LAD	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	37 1/3	5.79	1.50	4.82	4.82

Rodrigo Lopez | 2006 WBC innings: 7

Year	Team	April					Season
		IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2005	BAL	31 2/3	3.98	1.45	7.39	3.98	209 1/3	4.90	1.41	5.07	2.71
2006	BAL	37	6.81	1.57	4.86	3.41	189	5.90	1.55	6.48	2.81
2007	COL	17	1.59	1.00	4.24	1.06	79 1/3	4.42	1.31	4.88	2.38

 

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)