Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Impact Analysis: Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians

December 17, 2008 @ 01:00:00

After finishing the 2008 season with the second worst bullpen ERA in the major leagues (5.13), the Cleveland Indians moved to shore up that weakness by signing free-agent reliever Kerry Wood (Chicago Cubs) Saturday, Dec. 13. Agreement on the terms of the contract was reached earlier in the week, but an official announcement was delayed pending a strenuous physical in light of Wood's extensive injury history. The deal is worth $20.5 million over two years and includes a vested option for a third year at $11 million if Wood finishes 55 games in either of the first two seasons.

The addition of Wood to the Indians bullpen allows the club to end the nightmare that was last season's closer carousel. Young right-hander Jensen Lewis logged 13 saves in August and September but now will likely move into a setup role. Relievers Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt will compete for late-inning duty with newly acquired reliever Joe Smith.

Wood's troubled past

Wood looked to have all the makings of a superstar when he struck out 20 batters in only his fifth major league start and earned National League Rookie of the Year honors in 1998. However, since 1999 the 31-year-old right-hander has had Tommy John surgery, a torn rotator cuff, a torn triceps, knee surgery and a strained oblique. In fact, in 10 seasons with the Cubs, Wood hit the disabled list 12 times, including once in 2008 with a blister on his throwing hand.

Convinced that starting was no longer an option for Wood, the Cubs moved him to the bullpen near the end of 2007 and promoted him to closer in 2008. Though questions about his durability remain, Wood did manage to pitch three days in a row four times in 2008 and even pitched four games in a row once; he also pitched in both games of a day-night doubleheader in September 2007. All are considered positive signs of his arm strength.

Rolling into Cleveland

Closing for one of the top teams in baseball last year did wonders for Wood's game. In 66 1/3 innings over 65 appearances, Wood racked up 34 saves (tied for fourth in the National League), a 5-4 record, a 3.26 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP; his 84-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio (for an elite 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings) is a further indicator of his dominance in the closer role. Despite those terrific numbers, Wood was not in the Cubs' plans for 2009.

The Cubs' disinterest in signing Wood to a hefty new contract was likely exacerbated by the emergence of setup man Carlos Marmol. The 26-year-old flamethrower was dominant during much of 2008, finishing with a 2.68 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 87 1/3 innings in 82 appearances. Plus, Marmol's 114 strikeouts and seven saves in nine opportunities must have convinced Cubs management that Wood would have been nothing but an expensive luxury. They also acquired reliever Kevin Gregg, who has saved 61 games the past two seasons, from the Florida Marlins as insurance in case Marmol falters. Gregg's arrival in mid-November effectively ended Wood's tenure in Chicago.

Trouble with the Tribe

The Indians did not lack for problem areas in 2008, but the bullpen has to be counted among the worst. A 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP from the team's relief corps are evidence enough of that, but their 31 saves (27th in the majors) in 51 opportunities (tied for 28th), batting average against of .280 (30th) and 60 home runs allowed (tied for 27th) do little to dispel any argument.

Their opening day closer, Joe Borowski, had a 7.56 ERA, 1.92 WHIP and four blown saves in 10 chances by July 1 and was released by the team shortly after. For a time after Borowski's release, a closer-by-committee of sorts developed in which Perez, Betancourt and right-hander Masahide Kobayashi competed for rare save opportunities. Lewis took over the job full-time in August, solving the closer conundrum temporarily, but he was not viewed by management as a long-term solution. Wood's signing should help to solidify what had become a difficult situation.

What is Wood walking into?

Considering that the Tribe went from 96-66 and the ALCS in 2007 to 81-81 and mediocrity in 2008, we cannot be sure what kind of team will emerge from Progressive Field this year. The good news is that they had winning records in both August and September and still have first-rate talent at key positions, but many questions remain.

We can be certain that the 2008 American League Cy Young winner, left-hander Cliff Lee, will return to anchor the starting rotation, but things get murkier after that. Right-hander Fausto Carmona was a big disappointment in 2008, but he could be poised to rebound in 2009. Pitchers Aaron Laffey (elbow) and Anthony Reyes (elbow) are both dealing with injuries but are hoping to be ready by spring training. After that, any number of pitchers could make up the back end of the Indians rotation.

If Lee and Carmona provide an effective one-two punch at the top of the rotation and if some of the Indians veteran hitters return to form (such as designated hitter Travis Hafner and catcher Victor Martinez), then Wood could pick up lots of save opportunities. Also, rank-and-file relief pitchers sometimes benefit from being around a fiery lockdown closer. If the Indians bullpen can feed off Wood's energy and ability, they might be able to do a better job of holding leads in 2009.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Wood allowed a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .331 in 2008. That number is considered both high and unsustainable and suggests Wood's ERA and WHIP should improve in 2009. Also, given Wood's elite strikeout rate and low walks, he should be able to make the transition to the more hitter-friendly AL fairly seamlessly. If everything comes together for him and his arm holds up, Wood could finish 2009 as one of the top closers in the game.

That being said, the biggest questions facing Wood are matters that are generally beyond his control. The health of his arm and quality of his team are outside the realm of the predictable and make Wood a risk on draft day. Fantasy owners willing to gamble on Wood's services have to accept a higher than normal possibility of failure.

Wood should make a quality No. 2 closer after the first-tier options have been drafted. Monitor the situation through spring training and be prepared to roll the dice if Wood looks strong as opening day approaches. Some fantasy owners will likely be scared off by his injury history, but that just means that he can be acquired more cheaply than other second-tier closers who don't necessarily have his upside. Consider selecting Wood in the middle rounds.