Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Fantasy baseball team previews: NL Central

February 19, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Thomas Griffenkranz
Edited by Tim Heaney and Bryce McRae

Chicago Cubs

Key additions	Key losses
OF Milton Bradley	RP Kerry Wood
2B Aaron Miles	2B Mark DeRosa
RP Kevin Gregg	SP Jason Marquis
P Aaron Heilman	OF Felix Pie

For information on each team's ballpark, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball ballpark overview - NL.

Fantasy sleepers/breakout performers

The departure of Kerry Wood leaves the door wide open for Carlos Marmol to close games for the Cubs in 2009. During the last two seasons Marmol has 210 strikeouts in 156 2/3 innings. Consider him a solid No. 2 closer.

Fantasy busts/fading performers

Last season outfielder Milton Bradley set career highs in home runs (22), batting average (.321) and RBIs (77) while leading the majors in BABIP (.396). Bradley has been unable to stay healthy and out of trouble throughout his career, so replicating his 2008 numbers seems unlikely.
Starting pitcher Ryan Dempster enjoyed a career year in 2008, after moving back into the starting rotation. Dempster had not pitched in more than 92 innings since 2003, so after compiling 206 2/3 innings last season, how will he be able to sustain that success?

Projected lineup	Projected rotation
OF Alfonso Soriano	SP Carlos Zambrano
2B Aaron Miles	SP Ryan Dempster
1B Derrek Lee	SP Ted Lilly
3B Aramis Ramirez	SP Rich Harden
OF Milton Bradley	SP Sean Marshall
C Geovany Soto	P Aaron Heilman
OF Kosuke Fukudome	P Jeff Samardzija
SS Ryan Theriot

For projected bullpens, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball closer depth charts.

Spring training battle

Hurlers Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija will battle to become the Cubs' fifth starter. Whoever wins the role will not have much fantasy value, but Samardzija, with a K rate of 8.13, has the most upside of the group, especially in NL-only.
At second base, new addition Aaron Miles will probably at least see a challenge from Mike Fontenot. Fontenot is the more dangerous bat, but Miles fits the top-of-the-order role better. The victor here would find a cozy spot in the No. 2 spot and be a late-round middle infield selection.

Injury update

Relief pitcher Kevin Gregg (knee) had knee surgery during the offseason. The Cubs plan on being cautious with Gregg, and he may not pitch in late-game situations until the final week of spring training.
Starting pitcher Rich Harden (shoulder) has a tear in his shoulder joint that should not require surgery. Harden has been participating in the Cubs' offseason throwing program, and they are confident he will be ready to go in 2009.

Impact prospect(s)

Last season, Jeff Samardzija was called up in late July and appeared in 26 games for the Cubbies. His future is as a starter, but at this point, the Cubs appear willing to bring him along as a setup man.
Right-hander Mitch Atkins could be in the big leagues at some point in 2009 if the fifth starter battle doesn't produce a successful candidate. Atkins won 17 games with a 7.23 dominance ratio between Double and Triple-A Iowa last season.

Cincinnati Reds

Key additions	Key losses
OF Willy Taveras	OF Ryan Freel
C Ramon Hernandez	RP Jeremy Affeldt
RP Arthur Rhodes	OF Corey Patterson

For information on each team's ballpark, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball ballpark overview - NL.

Fantasy sleepers/breakout performers

First baseman Joey Votto seemed to figure out major league pitching after the All-Star break last season (.321 with 11 dingers). His batting eye also vastly improved from his 2007 debut. Playing half his games in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park doesn't hurt, either.
Though he may be somewhat overvalued, outfielder Jay Bruce smashed 21 homers in 413 at-bats in '08. However, he showed his age of 21 by hitting .254 with a 0.30 batting eye ratio. If you can take him as a No. 3 outfielder, the upside is appropriate, but let someone else reach for him if it's too early.
Righty Aaron Harang was coming off two seasons of 16 wins, but he let fantasy owners down, going 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA in 2008. With a career strikeout rate of 7.50 and his health improved, Harang should rebound in 2009, and he'll be a much cheaper addition.

Fantasy busts/fading performers

After going 12-3 with a 2.29 ERA before the All-Star Game, Edinson Volquez struggled to a 5-3 record with a 4.60 ERA after the break. Volquez is probably somewhere between these two extremes, but you should expect some growing pains in his sophomore season and avoid taking him among your top two starters.

Projected lineup	Projected rotation
OF Willy Taveras	SP Aaron Harang
OF Jerry Hairston Jr.	SP Edinson Volquez
1B Joey Votto	SP Bronson Arroyo
2B Brandon Phillips	SP Johnny Cueto
OF Jay Bruce	SP Micah Owings
3B Edwin Encarnacion	P Homer Bailey
C Ramon Hernandez
SS Alex Gonzalez

For projected bullpens, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball closer depth charts.

Spring training battle

The Reds will likely platoon Jerry Hairston Jr., Jonny Gomes and Chris Dickerson in left field in some fashion; don't count out veteran Jacque Jones either. The 26-year-old Dickerson, who showed surprising power in 2008 before getting injured, has the most upside, but it appears Hairston will start the season there.

Injury update

Shortstop Alex Gonzalez (knee) missed all of 2008 with microfracture knee surgery. Regaining his starting role this year, Gonzalez has been pronounced healthy and has been cleared to participate in spring workouts.
Closer Francisco Cordero (foot) is still recovering after undergoing microfracture and bone spur procedures on his right foot. He threw off the mound for the first time this season Saturday, Feb. 14.

Impact prospect(s)

First baseman Yonder Alonso is the Reds' top prospect and will be in his first major league camp in 2009. With Joey Votto blocking his entry, though, he may not offer much in fantasy leagues. Alonso has big-time power potential but is still a year or so away.
A speedster with moderate pop, outfielder Drew Stubbs appeared to have the light come on in 2008 (38 RBIs, 27 steals in 303 at-bats at Single-A Sarasota). If he can correct his batting eye, look for Stubbs to be up in 2009 should the left-field fight linger.

Houston Astros

Key additions	Key losses
P Mike Hampton	P Randy Wolf
3B Aaron Boone	3B Ty Wigginton
	C Brad Ausmus

For information on each team's ballpark, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball ballpark overview - NL.

Fantasy sleepers/breakout performers

Starter Wandy Rodriquez has posted a solid 7.64 strikeout rate over the past three seasons. If he learns to pitch away from Minute Maid Park, can stay healthy and approach 200 innings, Rodriquez could be a nice sleeper in 2009.

Fantasy busts/fading performers

Kazuo Matsui, a 32-year-old second baseman, set career highs in batting average (.293) and OPS (.781) in 2008. Matsui's strong second half will cause him to be overvalued in 2009. Select him only if you are desperate for steals late.

Projected lineup	Projected rotation
2B Kazuo Matsui	SP Roy Oswalt
OF Hunter Pence	SP Mike Hampton
1B Lance Berkman	SP Wandy Rodriguez
OF Carlos Lee	SP Brian Moehler
SS Miguel Tejada	SP Brandon Backe
3B Geoff Blum/Aaron Boone	P Felipe Paulino
OF Michael Bourn
C Humberto Quintero

For projected bullpens, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball closer depth charts.

Spring training battle

The Astros will try to replace infielder Ty Wigginton with a platoon of veterans Geoff Blum and Aaron Boone. Blum will likely get to majority of starts; he had a career-high 14 big flies in 2008 but has little fantasy value in 2009.
Career backup Humberto Quintero and youngster J.R. Towles look to be in position to earn the two Astros catcher spots in 2009. If Towles wins the job he has some power potential for the position and more upside than Quintero.

Injury update

Southpaw Mike Hampton (heart, elbow) has seemed to be battling injuries forever, but was solid down the stretch in Atlanta last season. Hampton's best days are behind him, though, and he is a high injury risk.
Carlos Lee (finger) broke his finger in August; he is expected to be fully recovered in 2009.

Impact prospect(s)

Pitcher Felipe Paulino (shoulder, arm) pitched just two-thirds of an inning in 2008, and the Astros could him his power arm to the bullpen if he doesn't earn a rotation spot.
Third baseman Chris D. Johnson will be waiting in the wings should the platoon of Blum and Boone fail. The Astros like his power potential, but he needs to improve with the glove.

Milwaukee Brewers

Key additions	Key losses
RP Trevor Hoffman	SP CC Sabathia
SP Braden Looper	SP Ben Sheets
RP Jorge Julio

For information on each team's ballpark, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball ballpark overview - NL.

Fantasy sleepers/breakout performers

Starter Yovani Gallardo posted a 8.24 dominance rate in his rookie season of 2007. After missing most of 2008 due to a knee injury, Gallardo assumes to No. 1 starter's role in 2009. There's a good chance he'll outperform his status as a No. 3 fantasy hurler.
Second sacker Rickie Weeks has stolen at least 15 bases in each of his first four seasons. Weeks improved his strikeout and contact rates late last season, and he is undervalued at this point. At where you can take him this year, he's worth the risk.

Fantasy busts/fading performers

Will fantasy drafters be patient enough to wait for proper return from outfielder Corey Hart? His .173 September clip ruined an otherwise solid season. He's a near-lock for 20-20, but his iffy batting eye hinders the chances of a .300 clip, which is what drafters are expecting of him.

Projected lineup	Projected rotation
2B Rickie Weeks	SP Yovani Gallardo
SS J.J. Hardy	SP Braden Looper
OF Ryan Braun	SP Dave Bush
1B Prince Fielder	SP Jeff Suppan
OF Corey Hart	SP Manny Parra
OF Mike Cameron	P Seth McClung
3B Bill Hall
C Jason Kendall

For projected bullpens, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball closer depth charts.

Spring training battle

The Brewers enter spring training with questions at third base. While Bill Hall (calf) is penciled in as the starter, he may not be ready for the start of the season. Youngster Mat Gamel led the Southern League in extra base hits, RBIs and total bases last season.

Injury update

Hurler Yovani Gallardo (knee) pitched in only four games in 2008 due to ACL surgery. Gallardo returned late last season and pitched well; the Brewers will count on him to replace CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets.
Third baseman Bill Hall (calf) may start the season on the DL after partially tearing his left calf while working out.

Impact prospect(s)

Third baseman Mat Gamel is likely to get the biggest look in spring, especially with Bill Hall (calf) potentially on the shelf. He has great offensive potential but needs to improve defensively.
Shortstop Alcides Escobar hit .328 with 76 RBIs and 34 steals in Double-A Huntsville last season. Escobar is blocked from shortstop at the big league level by J.J. Hardy but could come up if Rickie Weeks struggles at second base. If he arrives and sees action, he's a sleeper for stolen bases.
Catcher Angel Salome is the Brewers' backstop of the future. He has very good power potential and bat control. Look for him to start the season in Triple-A Nashville, but he might not see much time in the bigs.

Impact managerial/coaching change

Ken Macha takes over as manager in 2009. Macha brings with him former New York Mets manager Willie Randolph as his bench coach; Randolph, a former second baseman, could help Rickie Weeks mature.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Key additions	Key losses
OF Eric Hinske	C Ronny Paulino
IF Ramon Vazquez
C Jason Jaramillo

For information on each team's ballpark, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball ballpark overview - NL.

Fantasy sleepers/breakout performers

Catcher Ryan Doumit finally stayed relatively healthy in 2008 and took advantage. Though you should expect him to again miss some time, he's a target if you want to wait for a promising, low-end No. 1 catcher.
How quickly third baseman Andy LaRoche has fallen. A .166 combined average in '08 was the absolute rock bottom. In the simplest sense, he can only improve. One positive sign was his batting eye ratio, a solid 0.65 in limited time. There's still late-round power that he hasn't shown yet.

Fantasy busts/fading performers

Taking outfielder Nate McLouth as a No. 1 or No. 2 outfielder is a risk, even after his breakout campaign (.276-26-94 and 23 steals). His second-half slump and the departures of outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady helped him return to earth.

Projected lineup	Projected rotation
OF Nyjer Morgan	SP Paul Maholm
2B Freddy Sanchez	SP Ian Snell
OF Nate McLouth	SP Tom Gorzelanny
C Ryan Doumit	SP Zach Duke
1B Adam LaRoche	SP Ross Ohlendorf
OF Brandon Moss	SP Jeff Karstens
3B Andy LaRoche
SS Jack Wilson

For projected bullpens, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball closer depth charts.

Spring training battle

There's a bit of a challenge in left field. Speedster Nyjer Morgan is the expected winner, but there's a chance outfielder Eric Hinske could be given a shot to build on his 20-homer 2008 season with the Tampa Bay Rays. Morgan's terror on the basepaths is worth more to you, so root for him.

Injury update

Outfielder Brandon Moss (knee) continues to work out and is close to 100 percent recovery from an October knee scope.

Impact prospect(s)

Will this be the year outfielder Andrew McCutchen arrives? His batting eye has improved as he has matured at every level, a good sign that he's ready to come up. Reaching double-digit homers would be a challenge, but he's worth an addition if and when he comes up for his steals potential.
Third baseman Neil Walker has been disappointing (.242 at Triple-A Indianapolis in '08) and might have lost some of his prospect mojo. He still clubbed 16 homers in 505 at-bats there, so there's some hope, and he'll start the season in Indy. Just don't expect to see much from him at the big level unless Andy LaRoche falters. Hot corner man Pedro Alvarez is also nipping at Walker's heels....

St. Louis Cardinals

Key additions	Key losses
SS Khalil Greene	RP Jason Isringhausen
RP Trever Miller	SP Braden Looper
	2B Aaron Miles
	2B Adam Kennedy
	2B Felipe Lopez

For information on each team's ballpark, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball ballpark overview - NL.

Fantasy sleepers/breakout performers

Shortstop Khalil Greene has a fresh start and could help your team as a late-round middie. Greene has flashed 20-homer pop and enters a much more potent lineup in which he'll have less pressure to carry the bats. As long as you don't expect a good batting average, he won't hurt you where you get him.

Fantasy busts/fading performers

Though the power will probably remain, don't expect outfielder Ryan Ludwick to approach .300 again. His BABIP was abnormally high, and his batting eye still hovers below the league average. Draft him if you need power, power and power. Nothing else.

Projected lineup	Projected rotation
OF Skip Schumaker	SP Adam Wainwright
OF Ryan Ludwick	SP Chris Carpenter
1B Albert Pujols	SP Kyle Lohse
OF Rick Ankiel	SP Todd Wellemeyer
C Yadier Molina	SP Joel Pineiro
SS Khalil Greene	SP Jaime Garcia
3B David Freese
(Pitcher)
2B Brendan Ryan

For projected bullpens, see KFFL's Fantasy baseball closer depth charts.

Spring training battle

The Cards' closer battle is open, though righty Chris Perez seems to be the favorite. The strikeout-happy Jason Motte, a converted catcher, is joined by 2008 interim stopper Ryan Franklin and pitcher Chris Carpenter as other possibilities. Manager Tony La Russa hasn't expressed confidence in Perez, so this may even be a committee to start the season.
To replace Adam Kennedy at second base, expect outfielder Skip Schumaker to enter the fray. The Cards should want him to win because it keeps his good contact bat in the lineup and brings up Colby Rasmus, but Schumaker will have to duke it out with Brendan Ryan, among others. Is free agent Orlando Hudson (Arizona Diamondbacks) still in play here?

Injury update

Third baseman Troy Glaus (shoulder) should miss at least a portion of the season after he had a torn muscle in his right shoulder surgically repaired. Given Glaus' widespread injury history, this could linger all year.
Pitcher Chris Carpenter (shoulder) should finally re-enter the rotation this season. He has already started to throw curveballs during his recovery from a nerve transposition surgery. He doesn't belong in shallow drafts.

Impact prospect(s)

With outfielder Skip Schumaker battling for the second-base job, could a spot open up for outfielder Colby Rasmus? La Russa thinks he's ready to contribute despite a .251-11-36 performance at Triple-A Memphis last year. He battled a knee injury, though.
Third baseman Brett Wallace may not be the first to receive the chance to replace Troy Glaus, but he's the choice with the most to offer. The team thinks David Freese could fill the role, but if Glaus lingers on the sidelines, it may only be a matter of time until "Braveheart" dons his major league war paint.