Impact Analysis: Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies

April 22, 2009 @ 09:30:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Tim Heaney

Within the baseball community, the Colorado Rockies have developed a reputation for being conservative when moving prospects through their system to the big leagues. In 2007, however, the Rockies made a bold move by naming Troy Tulowitzki their Opening Day shortstop even though he had no prior Triple-A experience. Tulowitzki went on to finish runner-up in the NL Rookie of the Year Award balloting.

This spring, center fielder Dexter Fowler, another rookie without Triple-A service time, made the club when it was expected he would begin the year in the Pacific Coast League. The switch-hitter dazzled the Rockies with his outfield defense and showed the ability to get on base, drive the ball into the gaps and steal bases.

In 79 spring at-bats, Fowler hit .291 with a team-best 15 runs scored, seven doubles and eight stolen bases along with two triples. Thus far, the 23-year-old has held his own in the majors, hitting .263 with two home runs, five RBIs and three stolen bases over a span of 38 at-bats.

Scouting report

Fowler brings a diverse set of tools and skills to the table that few players can match. The Rockies are currently utilizing him as a leadoff hitter because he can make contact (.302 career average in the minors), get on-base (.397 lifetime on-base percentage) and motor around the basepaths.

Although he stole 20 bags in 28 tries at Double-A Tulsa last year, the rookie has the talent to do much better. Fowler is a graceful runner who glides effortlessly like he's on cross-country skis, which is amazing given his lanky 6-foot-4, 175-pound frame. The rookie has already shown signs of improving his base stealing skills this year after registering a 67.6 success rate in the minors. Combining spring training stats with the regular season, Fowler has been more efficient stealing bags, swiping 11 bases in 14 tries (78.6 percent).

In 2008, Fowler enjoyed a breakthrough season at Double-A Tulsa, hitting .335 with nine home runs, 64 RBIs, 92 runs, 31 doubles and nine triples in a 421-at-bat stint. Fowler did a better job last year of taking advantage of his size to drive the ball along with a massive jump in line-drive rate (13.1 percent to a whopping 22.4 percent), which accentuates his leadoff abilities.

Right now, he's a 10- to 15-home run hitter at best. Long term, Fowler shows the projection to be a 20- to 25-home run thumper. He has the 6-foot-4 frame to add more muscle, already has a healthy count of extra-base hits, is still learning how to drive the ball from the left side and will be helped immensely by playing home games at Coors Field.

Playing situation

The Rockies are easing Fowler into the big leagues, having him share time with Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith as a fourth outfielder to begin the season. Both Spilborghs and Smith are capable hitters, but both lack the offensive upside and defensive skills that Fowler provides.

Through 13 games, Fowler is out-hitting both Spilborghs and Smith. Spilborghs is currently hitting .229 with five RBIs and six runs scored. In 22 at-bats, Smith is hitting .182 with two homers and three RBIs.

Fowler is slowly showing signs of becoming a full-time starter. He has started four out of the last five Rockies games and already has compiled 16 more at-bats than Smith. Spilborghs' ability to play every outfield spot competently opens up a chance for Fowler to grab center field for the rest of the season if Smith continues to underachieve.

Fantasy baseball outlook

It's difficult to depend on Fowler in shallow MLB universe leagues when he projects only to have about 400 to 450 at-bats maximum by the end of the season. Despite that fact, he's worth finding a roster spot for and stashing on your bench in the time being in deep setups.

The safety valve of Coors Field takes away some of the risk that Fowler brings as a green rookie without any Triple-A experience. Fowler has already shown glimpses that he can push 25 steals, top double digits in home runs and be a run-scoring machine at the top of a formidable Rockies lineup.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)