Impact Analysis: Playoff quarterbacks

December 12, 2008 @ 00:00:00

By Mat Hehr
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

In this analysis we take a look at several quarterbacks with favourable matchups for Week 15 and Week 16. If you made the playoffs but are struggling with either a poor matchup or injury issues, consider one of the following passers.

Tyler Thigpen

Tyler Thigpen might just be the biggest surprise at the quarterback position this season. Could a third-string quarterback from Kansas City really have fantasy value? Since taking over as the starter, due to injuries, he has shown he is much more than just a third-stringer. Thigpen has great fantasy value, and it looks even better in the next two weeks. Thigpen and the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Diego Chargers in Week 15. In the past four weeks, San Diego has allowed 224.8 passing yards per contest (20th in the league), which gives Thigpen an opportunity to pass the ball around. The Chargers have also allowed four touchdown passes in that time. In Week 10 versus San Diego, Thigpen threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns without turning over the ball.

Table: Tyler Thigpen statistics (Weeks 11-14)

G	Com	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	Pass Int	Run Yds	Run TD
4	17	31	206	1.5	1	39	0

Thigpen isn't afraid of throwing the ball, and he sure will have an opportunity to throw it a lot against the Chargers. After playing the Chargers, Thigpen and the Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins. Miami has given up 210.8 passing yards per game and three touchdown passes against in the last four weeks. Again, Thigpen has the advantage of playing at home against both of these teams. If you are looking for a quarterback, Thigpen makes a very good case for why he should be selected.

Chad Pennington

Chad Pennington and the Miami Dolphins have the opportunity to make more noise than they already have been this season. They host the San Francisco 49ers before travelling to the Kansas City Chiefs. Both have very poor defenses against the pass this season. In the past four weeks, Pennington has faced only one weak pass defense, which was the New England Patriots. He took complete advantage of that with three touchdown passes along with 341 passing yards.

Table: Chad Pennington statistics (Weeks 11-14)

G	Com	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	Pass Int	Run Yds	Run TD
4	19	29	215.5	1	0.25	6.3	0.25

One key thing about Pennington's success this season is that he has thrown only six interceptions and only one in his past four games. San Francisco has allowed 244.5 passing yards per game in the past four weeks and has recorded only three interceptions. Kansas City has tallied only two interceptions in the past four weeks and has allowed an average of 239.3 passing yards per contest. Pennington has the ability to tear these two pass defenses up in the next two weeks. KC ranks 24th versus the quarterback position, and the 49ers come in at 25th.

Marc Bulger

Who would think that a quarterback, whose team is 2-11, would still have some fantasy value? The St. Louis Rams' Marc Bulger may surprise you. In the next two weeks, Bulger plays the Seattle Seahawks and the 49ers. Seattle's passing yard total against has been horrendous in the past four weeks. They have allowed 300.0 yards per game, ranking second to last, along with giving up 1.5 passing touchdowns per outing.

Table: Marc Bulger statistics (Weeks 11-14)

G	Com	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	Pass Int	Run Yds	Run TD
4	19	32	170.8	0.5	1.5	0	0

Bulger has been posting serviceable passing yardage totals in the past four weeks. In Week 12, Bulger left the game early due to a concussion. Against Seattle and San Francisco, he has the chance to put up better numbers in the passing department. Bulger has wide receiver Torry Holt to throw to, along with emerging rookie counterpart Donnie Avery. Bulger gets the benefit at playing in front of his own fans for both games, also. Playing at home is a big advantage for the quarterback. While we recognize playing Bulger is a risky proposition any week, desperate times call for desperate measures.

J.P. Losman/Trent Edwards

Due to injuries, it is uncertain who will officially be getting the start at quarterback this week for the Buffalo Bills. It is looking like J.P. Losman might be getting the start over Trent Edwards (groin), who is still recovering from a groin injury. However, Losman and Edwards are both solid quarterbacks who have value. No matter what quarterback a team has starting, he will have value when you are playing the New York Jets, who have given up the most passing yards in the past four weeks. They have managed to give up an average of 321.3 yards per game in this time. Along with that, they have allowed two touchdown passes per outing in that short time.

Table: J.P. Losman statistics (Weeks 11-14)

G	Com	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	Pass Int	Run Yds	Run TD
3	8	15	72	0	0.33	17	0

Losman has not seen plenty of action in this latter half of the season, but he has proven that he can step in and take control of a game. With the weak pass defense that the Jets have, he could be a very valuable quarterback to play this week.

Table: Trent Edwards statistics (Weeks 11-14)

G	Com	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	Pass Int	Run Yds	Run TD
3	17	26	177.7	1	1	16.7	1

If Edwards cannot make the start against the Jets, it is likely he will return against the Denver Broncos. They have had a weak defense all season, and since Week 11, they have allowed 209 passing yards per game, with two total passing touchdowns. These numbers land them in the upper half of the league, but confused here. In that time, the Broncos have faced the Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders, New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs - none of which are exactly passing powerhouses. With two weak defenses on deck for the Bills, their starting quarterback, whether it is Losman or Edwards, will have good fantasy matchups and are worth taking a shot on if you're desperate.

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Mat Hehr
Hehr has been a KFFL contributor since 2008.

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