Impact Analysis: Pat Burrell, Tampa Bay Rays

January 9, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Keith Hernandez
Edited by Tim Heaney

The Tampa Bay Rays tried to take the next step toward winning a World Series championship in 2009 with the signing of outfielder Pat Burrell (Philadelphia Phillies) to a two-year deal. In Burrell the Rays gain their primary target of the offseason, a right-handed power bat.

The Rays appear to be making a beneficial move by acquiring Burrell to be their designated hitter, which will make his poor defensive skills a non-factor.

Burrell showed highs and lows in his 2008 contract year with the Phillies. He followed up a .326-8-25 April with a .227-5-11 May. Next he posted a .256-6-13 June before a solid .304-7-15 July. Burrell finished with a .250 average, 33 home runs (the second highest total of his career), 86 RBIs and 74 runs scored.

However, will the move to the American League East and a designated hitter role provide a significant boost in Burrell's offensive output?

A reliable big stick

Although Burrell may be approaching the latter part of his career at age 32 and can be streaky at the plate, he has proven year after year that he is not an injury-prone player.

He has played in at least 144 games in all but two his nine seasons (one was his rookie year). A move to the American League and into the designated hitter role should only help his durability by limiting the wear and tear on his body in the outfield over the 162-game season.

In addition to his reliability health-wise, Burrell has remained a consistent power bat and run producer. In his past four seasons, he has averaged 31 home runs, 99 RBIs and 103 walks.

Preference for southpaws

In 2008, the Rays ranked 13th out of 14 teams in the American League against lefties with a .246 average. The team also posted a .726 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) against southpaws, good for third worst in the league.

Burrell, on the other hand, hit .279 with a .406 on-base percentage and a .545 slugging percentage against lefties last season, which are similar to his career numbers. Burrell hit .238 with 26 home runs and 66 RBIs against right-handed pitchers.

Although he has hit better against lefties over the past three seasons (.275) than righties (.246), he can still hold his own against right-handed pitching. Burrell's presence in the middle of the Rays lineup next to the likes of first baseman Carlos Pena, third baseman Evan Longoria and outfielder B.J. Upton should cause a trickle-down effect and improve the team's productivity against lefties.

It is not known exactly where Burrell will fit into manager Joe Maddon's 2009 lineup, but Burrell has hit in the fifth spot more than any other in his career.

Weakness in AL East?

While Burrell's power numbers throughout his career have not fluctuated much, the 2009 season could prove tough on him in his new digs. Keep in mind that he will be moving from one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball: Citizens Bank Park. Tropicana Field is widely known to lean in the direction of pitchers as team runs and batting averages typically fall below the norm there.

The American League East division in general has not been kind to Burrell in his career. In 264 at-bats against the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles, he has just 56 hits, 12 home runs, 44 RBIs and a .212 average. He has also struck out 84 times while walking just 56 times.

These numbers include a .083 average in a small sample size of just 12 at-bats at Tropicana Field. In the 2008 World Series Burrell went 0-for-6 with three strikeouts and two walks. However, his one career hit at the Trop was a two-run home run.

Stat analysis

Although Burrell does not have much experience to speak of at his new ballpark, there are numbers and evidence that suggest he could be a slight bust in his new lineup.

Burrell boasts a lifetime .257 batting average. However, his past three years have seen a slight drop in average - he hit .281 in 2005, followed by season averages of .258, .256 and .250.

In Burrell's case, he has still been able to produce respectable offensive totals while sporting rather low batting averages. From 2006 to 2008 he has seen increases each year in round trippers while recording 100-plus walks in the past two seasons.

The fly ball is a big part of Burrell's game, and he has had a consistently productive percentage of air shots leave the yard. Eighteen percent of his 2008 fly balls became home runs, and he has averaged at least 16.2 percent in each of the last five seasons. 

His slugging percentage has also hovered above .500 for each of the last four years, truly displaying his power maturity. He has also posted a contact rate of at least 86 percent and a walk-to-strikeout ratio of at least 0.75 in each of the last three years.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Despite his performance fluctuation during his contract year, Burrell could prove to be a solid bargain for the Rays and fantasy gamers in 2009. He figures to be a strong midround selection because of his consistent ability to provide pop to a lineup.

He could be a moderate No. 3 outfielder in shallow mixed leagues, but he's more suitable as a high-end No. 4 in deep mixed setups given his erratic in-season performance.

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Keith Hernandez

Keith, an editor with KFFL, joined the team as a Hot off the Wire analyst in 2008 and has been playing fantasy sports since 2005. He is involved in MLB, NFL and NASCAR content. He graduated from the University of California-San Diego in 2005 with a B.A. in Communications and was a four-year starter as a member of the baseball program.

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