Impact Analysis: Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies

February 24, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

A portion of the world champion Philadelphia Phillies' 2008 success can be attributed to the superlative play of outfielder Shane Victorino. Possessing a blend of power and speed, Victorino combined for 14 home runs, 58 RBIs, 102 runs scored, 36 stolen bases and a team-high .293 batting average.

Despite numerous bouts with calf injuries, the Phillies rewarded the speedster with a lucrative one-year deal worth $3.125 million.

Inside the numbers

Table: Shane Victorino's major league statistics (2006-2008)

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OPS
2007	456	78	128	23	3	12	46	37	62	37	4	.281	.770
2008	570	102	167	30	8	14	58	45	69	36	11	.293	.799

With the exception of runs scored, triples, batting average and on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS), Victorino didn't show much improvement over his 2007 statistics, despite having 114 more at-bats.

One area Victorino did regress in significantly was stolen bases – a problem considering speed is his preeminent quality. In 2007, his success rate was an astounding 90.2 percent, but this number fell to 76.6 percent in 2008.

However, he averaged nearly one fewer plate appearance per attempt last year, meaning that he was slightly more aggressive with less concern over his calf problems.

Though only 5-foot-9, 180 pounds, Victorino has displayed surprising power. The 12 jacks hit in 2007 came as a surprise, considering he only hit six during 2006 in a similar amount of at-bats.

Compared to 2007, Victorino experienced improvements in his line-drive and groundball percentages; however, his flyball percentage (potential for home runs) and contact rate have both ebbed.

A look back at 2008

After batting just .234 through April 12, Victorino strained his right calf, landing him on the 15-day disabled list. Once May came, his calf appeared to be totally healed, as he scored 29 runs and swiped 11 bags while posting a .322 batting average and .855 OPS.

June saw a dip in his average to .235 for the month, but July brought back the heat, as Victorino smashed seven jacks, recorded 20 RBIs, stole six bags and posted a .333 average with a monster 1.000 OPS.

August saw another drop in average to a monthly .262, but he was able to finish the season off strong, batting .344 with three home runs, nine RBIs, seven stolen bases and an OPS of .894.

Strengths

Victorino has shown good improvements in his batting average and on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) since entering the majors. Along with expanding playing time, these improvements can be attributed to a bettered batting eye and stricter plate discipline, evidenced by an increase in walk-to-strikeout ratio from 0.44 in 2006, to 0.60 in 2007 to 0.65 in 2008.

He also boasted a quality 87.6 percent contact rate last season that, when combined with his improving plate discipline, gives the fledgling outfielder lots of room for growth at the plate. He has topped 87 percent in that category in each of the last four seasons.

Furthering his stock is his ability to switch-hit, which he does fairly well. He put together hitting streaks of eight games or more four times, including a 14-game streak.

Once he is on base, he is still a huge threat to steal, despite a drop in success last season; this is attested mainly to his increase in chances. The aggressive approach on the basepaths of Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will ensure that the "Flyin' Hawaiian" has plenty of opportunities for steals next season.

Weaknesses

Victorino fancies himself as a home run hitter and can get in trouble when he starts swinging for the fences too often. Batting out of the two-hole as he did the majority of the season, he needs to concentrate on reaching base, which he can do by being more selective with pitches. He can also improve his on-base percentage (OBP) by improving his consistency, as he hit below .262 for three months of the season.

Victorino also struggled with high-heat pitches, which he sometimes had trouble catching up to, as well as his batting average on the road. Although it is not strange that his average dropped when away from hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park (he hit .316 at home and .272 on the road), there is definitely room for improvement. He actually hit .307 away from the Bank (.254 there) in 2007.

Lastly, it is concerning that the 28-year-old has multiple visits to the disabled list over the past two seasons. A calf injury severely curtailed his 2007 season, limiting him to only 456 at-bats. A similar injury plagued him in 2008; however, he recorded 570 at-bats.

Surrounding cast

The Phillies ranked second in home runs in the majors, and Victorino will continue to benefit from the big bats surrounding him. He will be batting second in a lineup that contains first baseman Ryan Howard, second baseman Chase Utley, shortstop Jimmy Rollins, new full-time outfielder Jayson Werth and newly signed outfielder Raul Ibanez. If Victorino can hit near last season's .291 batting average, he should be able to post solid numbers in the runs and RBIs categories.

The Phillies lost slugging outfielder Pat Burrell (Tampa Bay Rays); however, Ibanez should be able to fill the gap.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Victorino's bouts on the disabled list the past two seasons are concerning, especially considering he is only 28 years old, so there is a good possibility that he'll miss some time.

When he is healthy, his solid batting average and speed will mean good contributions to the runs and stolen bases categories.

Similar to Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal, Victorino is being drafted in the early middle rounds for his speed; he carries with him growing but uncertain power.

His moderate risk makes him a No. 3 outfielder at best. The best time to take him is when you have solidified a power base and netted a starting pitcher of appropriate early-round value, if applicable.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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