Impact Analysis: Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners

January 27, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Tim Heaney

He has burned owners in the past, but don't count out Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Erik Bedard (shoulder). Arguably the most disappointing fantasy pitcher in 2008, Bedard, soon to be 30 years old, has recovered from shoulder surgery and is expected to be ready for the start of spring training. Last September, Bedard had a cyst removed from his shoulder and tissue cut from his labrum.

He was limited to 15 starts and just 81 innings in 2008. The original fear was a torn labrum, which is potentially a career-ending blow. It was later discovered that the cyst was the culprit. According to the Mariners' training staff, he began a throwing program Dec. 10.

Overvalued in 2008

There is potential here to spin a middle-round selection into a valuable fantasy contributor. The lefthander is on a one-year, $7.75 million deal, so Bedard should be highly motivated for a contract next season. When he's right, Bedard, with an 8.66 career strikeouts per nine innings, can rack up whiffs.

His breakout 2007 season (221 K's in 182 innings) arguably inflated his 2008 value - his 10.93 strikeouts per nine frames and 1.09 WHIP were far better than his career averages. Many fantasy owners made the mistake of relying on him as a No. 1 starter instead of netting a more reliable, innings-eating hurler as their top option.

Bedard missed much of April before struggling with a 5.09 ERA in May. He left his June 20 start early due to back spasms and threw his last pitch July 4 before being shut down. A lack of communication between Bedard and then-manager Jim Riggleman may have exacerbated the problem as Bedard didn't speak up when he first sustained.

Positives

During his periods of success, his curveball has been his best pitch. A big concern is how quickly his can regain the same type of break on the pitch following surgery. The pitch has incorporated the elements of a slider, making a slurve in the process.

Bedard does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He will again operate in Safeco Field, which is among the better pitchers' parks, annually ranking near the bottom of runs scored and home runs allowed. A resurgent Bedard could be a valuable trade asset for the Mariners, who are overloaded with starters and have finished last in the AL West four of the last five seasons.

Physical issues

A sometimes inconsistent delivery has led to a lot of walks. His 3.54 walks per nine are certainly undesirable. Durability has also eluded Bedard. He has never thrown 200 innings in a season and rarely goes deep into games. In 2005, he missed nearly two months with a sprained knee. A strained oblique shut him down near the end of 2007.

Bullpen breakdown

The Mariners' bullpen remains a large question mark. Last season, 10 pitchers recorded at least one save. Former closer J.J. Putz was traded to the New York Mets. Pitcher Aaron Heilman, mainly a reliever in the majors, came over as part of that move but he wants to start games. Pitcher Brandon Morrow, who recorded 10 saves, will also be a starter. They have a slew of other relievers vowing for the closer role - not an ideal situation for a starter's fantasy value.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Bedard has shown talent before and may be getting written off too soon, possibly giving fantasy baseball managers a great value. He carries a risk with the shoulder problems, but at the cheap price owners could snag him for that may not be much of a concern. Building pitching depth if you're forced to select him earns a stronger emphasis, but Bedard has the potential to perform as a No. 2 hurler.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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