Impact Analysis: Minnesota Twins outfield

January 21, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Tim Heaney

Despite the Twins having glaring holes at third base and in their bullpen, one of the biggest offseason questions the team faces is how they were going to find playing time for outfielders Denard Span, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez and Michael Cuddyer. Because of injuries to Cuddyer for a large part of last season, Span was called up and filled in brilliantly, hitting .294 with 70 runs scored and 18 stolen bases in 93 games.

His performance left the Twins with four capable outfielders for three outfield positions in 2009, meaning someone has to be the odd man out. In addition to these four, designated hitter Jason Kubel could steal some starts in the outfield.

Span's surprising 2008

Span basically came out of nowhere last season to become an extremely productive member of the Twins. Span began the 2008 season in Triple-A Rochester after losing the center-field job to Gomez in spring training. He only spent a few days in Rochester before being called up due to Cuddyer's first injury, and Span didn't impress, hitting only .258 with four runs scored in 12 games.

However, Span was called up again June 30 following Cuddyer's second injury of the season and seized the opportunity. Span became the starting right fielder for the remainder of the season and snatched the leadoff spot for the Twins, hitting .297 after his second callup. Last offseason Span underwent LASIK eye surgery, and he credited the procedure with his breakout success. 

Span, who'll turn 25 before this season, enters the season as the only outfielder basically guaranteed playing time this season, as he is their unquestioned leadoff hitter. He hit .284 in 66 games as the top hitter, but also had an on-base percentage (OBP) of .378. With a full season as the leadoff man for the Twins, Span's run total and steals should increase, and that is where he holds the most value for owners. He'll never provide a ton of power or RBIs, but his speed will keep him fantasy-relevant.

Go-go Gomez

The 23-year-old Gomez holds a ton of potential, and in his second full season for the Twins Gomez could tap into that potential even more. Gomez started off blazing hot for the Twins, stealing nine bases in April despite hitting .253.

However, he cooled down the stretch, hitting poorly in June (.236), July (.220) and August (.238) while recording zero steals in 22 July games. He picked up the speed in the last two months, though, totaling 12 swipes in August and September.

It's obvious that Gomez needs to work on his consistency if he's going to be of service to fantasy owners. He has the potential for a 60-steal season, but he first needs to get on base.

Despite an OBP of less than .300, Gomez still managed 33 steals. He has a career .339 figure in the minors, which isn't truly reflective of the leadoff-type hitter Gomez hopes to become. His batting eye ratio (walks per strikeout) was 0.18, a basement-level figure.

Still, when he debuted with the Mets in '07, Gomez showed speed that earned comparisons to New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes. Even the slightest increase in OBP will probably result in more steals for the young center fielder.

Gomez should enter the season as the Twins' center fielder and probable No. 9 hitter; the Twins will probably continue to justify their trade of starting pitcher Johan Santana to the Mets last season by playing Gomez as often as possible.

Can Young take a step forward?

Young, also 23 years old, still has sky-high potential. The former No. 1 overall pick came to Minnesota last offseason in a trade but failed to live up to some high expectations. Young failed to hit his first home run until June 7, despite being an everyday player, and finished the season with only 10, falling well below what the Twins hoped he would hit.

However, as their everyday left fielder, Young had 69 RBIs and 80 runs to go along with his .290 average, and he chipped in 14 steals. He also seemed to settle into the No. 6 slot in the batting order as the season wore on, hitting .332 in 66 games there, along with nine of his homers.

Young's biggest problem last year was his fondness for an inside-out swing, which sapped him of his power and provided a lot of opposite field spray hits. The Twins worked with him to get him to drive the ball more, which showed with his increased power after the All-Star break.

However, Young is still prone to hitting ground balls - 55.2 percent of his balls in play were grounders and just 27.8 percent flew into the air. He needs to attack the ball through the zone and hit the rawhide squarely.

Young also played through an ankle injury for the last six weeks of the regular season. He gained several pounds initially since his workouts were limited, but the malady has healed and he's adding muscle this offseason.

If he retains his improved shape and works on a more balanced swing, Young should be able to increase his power this season and be able to sustain his average at around .290, providing fantasy owners with a good amount of potential.

Cuddyer trying to come back

Cuddyer is the one outfielder that doesn't really fit in this group. He is 30 years old this season, and he lacks the potential (and talent) that the others in the group have. However, he does have one thing that may get him playing time - he is being paid around $8 million this season.

Cuddyer missed the majority of last season with a finger injury, and then a broken left foot suffered during his rehab stint with Rochester. He hit .249 with three homers and 36 RBIs in 71 games last season, and he was very obviously outplayed by Span while he was injured last season.

Cuddyer was awarded his big contract following a 2006 season in which he hit .284 with 24 homers and 109 RBIs. While this was a great season, it is also a statistical sore thumb, his only especially good season in eight years with the team. His play dropped off in '07, and he was too hurt last year to really accomplish anything.

Still, is there something to learn from manager Ron Gardenhire's December quote that named Span, Gomez and Cuddyer as his starting outfield? He quickly retracted his statements that left Young out of the mix, but it's something worth watching.

Cuddyer isn't a flashy player, but Gardenhire may still have a soft spot for him. The vet also followed in Span's footsteps by undergoing LASIK eye surgery in November, so maybe his hitting could improve a bit, especially since he's a more experienced major league hitter than Span.

Cuddyer still has some power potential (20 to 25 homers) but will offer little else to fantasy owners. His career average is .268, and he only has 28 career steals. Combine that with no guarantee of playing time, and Cuddyer becomes a poor outfield option for fantasy owners, despite Gardenhire's original statement.

Others who could steal time

Kubel, the team's designated hitter, could end up getting some playing time in the outfield as well for the club. Kubel hit .272 with 20 homers and 78 RBIs in his first "full" season with the club. Full gets quotation marks because at the beginning of the season, the lefty was platooning with right-handed hitter Craig Monroe until Kubel won the job outright.

At only 26 years old, Kubel is still improving and most likely will increase on his power numbers. With a new two-year contract and the designated hitter spot his to lose, Kubel will be entering the season with stability that he hasn't had before. Expect a solid season from Kubel, and since he's outfield-eligible, he is definitely someone to keep on radar.

Depending on how things go and if injuries occur, outfielder Jason Pridie would likely be the first call-up. Pridie is similar to Denard Span in the type of player he is, as Pridie relies on his speed but also can hit for some power.

He doesn't possess Gomez's blazing speed, but he can get the job done (25 steals in Triple-A last season). Pridie only had four at-bats in 10 games with the team last September, but regardless, he should be the first one called up this season if something happens to any of the other Twins outfielders.

Who's in and who's out

Though it hasn't been decided yet, the best guess would be Cuddyer is the odd man out. Cuddyer is five years older than Span and seven years older than Gomez and Young.

One possibility would be for the Twins to send Gomez down for a brief Triple-A stint so he can gain seasoning in his plate discipline. However, Cuddyer offers the least potential out of the group - he is basically a guaranteed .270 season with moderate power. However, Gomez and Span have the legs to wreak havoc on the basepaths. Young has the potential to be a better player than Cuddyer given the playing time, as he already hits for a better average and his power numbers should increase.

Despite his verbal exclusion of Young, expect Gardy to go with the lineup he had for the majority of last season, with Young in left, Gomez in center and Span in right field.

Cuddyer will be getting a good amount of playing time as well, more so than a traditional fourth outfielder. He will probably take some time away from Gomez and Young (with Span sliding over into centerfield for those games), and he will also platoon with Kubel. Kubel will see a light amount of action in the outfield next season, potentially playing there basically only when someone needs a day off.

Fantasy baseball outlook

The three probable Twins outfielders should all end up on fantasy rosters, as they are all capable of producing. Young holds the most upside of the group, as he should hit for average and power. He has the tools to make a big jump in production, and that potential is always something to keep in mind when drafting.

Young could be drafted outfielder at best as a fourth outfielder with upside, but that's more for risk takers. He has a good amount of upside. Don't make the mistake of drafting him as your third outfielder. However, you might be able to grab him on the cheap this year if your fellow draft mates keep his 2008 season in the front of their minds.

Span should be drafted as a fifth outfielder, though some owners may stretch to take him as a fourth. His surprise performance should be in owners' minds on draft day, as it is unknown whether he can sustain that level of production. He also offers less to owners than Young in that he won't get a ton of RBIs and he has less power. However, at the top of the Twins lineup, Span should score a good amount of runs and record 20-plus steals.

Gomez should also be drafted as a fifth outfielder. If he develops, Gomez could be an elite source of steals for any owner that grabs him, and even a slight increase in his OBP could lead to more steals. He is one of the few players in the league today that can steal both second and third, and that is definitely a reason for owners to take the risk on Gomez. Beware of reaching too early, though, as he won't offer much else.

Cuddyer, with his poor performance and playing time up in the air, shouldn't be an option for mixed league owners. He still holds some value in AL-only leagues.

Kubel should be taken towards the end of drafts as a power prospect as he is expected to again top 20 homers with more guaranteed playing time. If he is still available at the tail end of your draft, his power could be handy.

Pridie should be monitored, as he has the potential for cheap steals if given the opportunity. Obviously there are guys in front of him on the roster, but if one goes down he should be ready to step in. He should be on owners' watch lists.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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