Impact Analysis: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds

January 29, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

It is a player like Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce that makes fantasy baseball worth playing. He's a "can't miss," All-Star-bound talent that because of his ripe age of 21 and lack of a Major League track record should not be drafted until the early middle rounds of mixed leagues.

The devil seems to be tempting the same presumptive and daring iota that drives the poker player to go all-in, calling a bluff - a fair comparison if you're thinking of reaching for Bruce this spring.

Getting his feet wet

The left-handed Red found highs and lows in his rookie campaign last season, but the 21 homers in his first 413 at-bats is what left the fans fervent. Bruce is a power hitter, plain and simple, but the combination of a near-complete skill set is what earned him Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year award in 2007.

In 2006 Bruce parked 16 and drove in 80 while posting a strong .871 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) in only 444 at-bats with Single-A Dayton. The next year he shot through the Cincinnati system as if out of one of Edward Teach's canons. Between high Single-A Sarasota, Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville, the 20-year-old mashed 26 round-trippers to go with 87 runs, 89 RBIs, a .319 average and a colossal .962 OPS. At no level did Bruce's average drop below .305 or his OPS dip lower than .925 in 2007.

After 184 at-bats in 2008 at Triple-A Louisville, with 10 homers and a 1.023 OPS, Bruce was promoted to Cincinnati and never looked back.

A little patience

Bruce projects as a big power threat in the major leagues and has enough athleticism to steal up to 10 bases as well. He stole 19 in 2006 and played 35 games in center field last season. However, the source for the slugger's potential fallout is not natural ability or minor league accolades - it comes from the strikeouts and the lack of patience.

While Bruce's career .366 minor league on-base percentage was solid, it was padded by a .308 batting average that may not see its way into the MLB ranks for at least a few years. Over 1,341 at-bats, he walked just 125 times. For perspective, former Reds outfielder Adam Dunn had 122 walks just last season. This negative attribute will devastate the best of talents if it is not curbed.

In his rookie year Bruce drew a walk in just 7.4 percent of his plate appearances. However, he struck out in 26.6 percent of them. An alarming fact for potential Bruce owners is that players with patience usually have it, seemingly innately, or have to struggle for a few major league seasons looking for it, whereas many swing their way out of baseball. The aforementioned Dunn was seemingly built with a batting eye, walking almost twice as much as Bruce in less minor league at-bats.

Bruce's inability to see the strike zone will effectively determine which pitches he sees and his strikeout rate. For San Diego Padres outfielder Brian Giles, exalted for his great batting eye, fastballs have comprised 64 percent of the pitches given to him. Bruce saw only 57 percent last year, and his contact percentage crawled to 71.6 percent as a direct result.

More stat play

While it is hard to take back home runs from someone, there's little doubt Bruce hit the ball much better in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. In 235 at-bats at home last year, Bruce hit .287 with an .892 OPS and 13 homers. On the road he scraped to a .221 mark with a .636 OPS and only eight home runs. In fact, arguably only a few of his homers were not slugged in hitters' parks last season.

He also found major struggles against southpaws, batting a menial .190 with a .299 slugging percentage and punching out 46 times in 137 at-bats.

The positives

However, among the wreckage we still see some blinding light.

If Bruce struggled as much as he did against lefties last year, that means he absolutely crushed righties. In fact, he batted .286 with an .869 OPS and motored 18 homers in just 276 at-bats against right-handed pitching last year.

Any improvement against lefties will really help his cause. His home and road splits are somewhat irrelevant assuming he plays as a Cincinnati Red all season in 2009.

Another obvious positive is that he ended the season strong, hitting for a .924 OPS in September. He even drew his highest monthly walk total, 10, in the season's final month. Between June and September Bruce's OPS climbed incrementally each month, and 14 of Bruce's 21 home runs came in August and September.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Bruce will undoubtedly be selected as a starting outfielder, and deservedly so. He will likely, one day, become a perennial top-30 choice, and he will be valuable if only his power alone shows up next season. However, some managers will reach, looking for this year's version of Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton.

Before you select Bruce as your first or second outfielder in 2009, consider the above and know that while Bruce's ceiling is sky high, he will be turning just 22 in April. Know that he struggled to make contact last season, and know he still swings out of his shoes much too often.

This kind of inconsistency and risk with a high pick may not be wise with likely a lot of other high-ceiling, but more consistent options available. Bruce is safest as a No. 3 fantasy outfielder, but you probably won't grab him for that price.

Henry David Thoreau said, "It is characteristic of wisdom not to do desperate things." He would be a good manager in any fantasy league.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)