Impact Analysis: Detroit Tigers bullpen

February 3, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Tim Heaney

From the seventh inning on, the pitchers of the Detroit Tigers posted a 4.99 ERA, third worst in baseball during 2008. That ugly statistic helps explain why the No. 5 scoring offense was a basement dweller in the AL Central. A turnaround in the bullpen is key for the Tigers to regain their recent success.

In '06 and '07, the Tigers finished second in the division and their relief pitchers averaged a total of 45 saves per year. The majority of those saves were converted by rollercoaster closer Todd Jones, now retired. The 16-year veteran pitched to contact, sometimes to a fault, but kept the job. As it was after Jones was stripped of his role last year, the closer candidates for 2009 are a collection of interesting arms.

Lyon a Tiger

The front-runner is relief pitcher Brandon Lyon, 29, who was signed as a free agent in January. Lyon is coming off a career-high 26-save season with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He posted the second highest strikeouts per nine innings (6.67) average of his career and set a low in walks per nine innings (1.97).

While Lyon compiled a 2.43 ERA prior to the All-Star break, he imploded with an 8.46 ERA in the second half. His .286 career batting average against shows he can be hittable. Thankfully, Lyon does not give up many home runs, with only seven surrendered last season.

Struggles in non-save appearances ballooned Lyon's numbers, and he relied heavily on his heater and curveball after the break, which limited his effectiveness. Still, his improved strikeout rate gives him hope for this year. He also has just four walks in his 51 save conversions, so he has shown the ability to pitch in pressure spots.

Rodney gone wild

Reliever Fernando Rodney is in the discussion but likely returning to his old setup role. Rodney took over as the closer in July of last season, saving 13 games in 19 attempts.

Rodney set a career high in K's per nine (10.93) but also walks (6.69 per nine) and can lose control in a hurry. He owns 33 career saves but 25 blown attempts, planting concerns if Rodney really has the makeup of a closer.

During winter ball Rodney worked on strengthening his shoulder, which cost him two months of the season and prompted a dreaded visit to Dr. James Andrews. He's hoping to avoid surgery this year as a result of the extra work.

An increased presence of his slider may help him this year, as it would offset an almost predictable fastball-changeup pattern. He lost the effectiveness of the pitch after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2004.

The young and the injured

Flame-throwing reliever Joel Zumaya (shoulder) gives the radar gun a workout with triple-digit heat but has not been able to stay on the field, limited to fewer than 34 innings in consecutive seasons. He appeared in only 21 games last season and is coming off surgery to repair a stress fracture in his shoulder.

On the mound, there is no doubting Zumaya's strikeout ability (career 9.36 K's per nine), but he has been going the wrong way in home runs allowed, walks and batting average against. He also remains unproven as a closer.

Pitcher Ryan Perry, the No. 21 draft pick in the 2008 draft, will likely begin in Double-A Erie but is a possible dark horse if called up. Perry features a hard fastball-slider combo which could serve him well as a relief pitcher; he'll close in the minors before he's ready to come up.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Since the team hasn't officially named a closer yet, you should probably save this position as one of the last drafted in your process.

Value-minded fantasy baseball managers should consider Lyon as the best bet in this situation; he's strictly a No. 3 closer. He is in a good situation; the Tigers lineup has given the bullpen plenty of save chances in the past, but there is no genuine certainty that Lyon can hold the job down for an entire season. Be sure not to overvalue him - there are similar closers with similar skills and more secure job posts.

Owners in deep leagues may want to draft Rodney in the final few rounds if they miss out on Lyon or any other low-level closers. It's not safe to say he'll recover fully from his struggles last year, but the Tigers will probably give him a few chances during the season if he doesn't earn back the job outright.

Zumaya and Perry can be avoided in mixed leagues on draft day but should be on watch lists given the potential volatility of this setting.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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