Impact Analysis: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks

February 4, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

Arizona Diamondbacks fans were given a glimpse of the future last April when outfielder Justin Upton hit .340 with five homers, 15 RBIs and 14 runs in 97 at-bats. Upton failed to reach those lofty heights for the rest of the season, though at 21, some inconsistencies should have been expected.

Upton, who is the younger brother of the Tampa Bay Rays' B.J. Upton, is slated to start in right field for the D-backs this year, and is expected to hit in the middle of the order. Often called one of the best prep prospects in years when he was drafted in 2005, Upton should be on all fantasy radars, especially those in keeper leagues.

Quick trip to the majors

The Diamondbacks selected Upton as the first overall pick in the 2005 draft; some pundits labeled Upton the "best prep position prospect since [former Seattle Mariners outfielder] Ken Griffey Jr." Talent runs strongly in Upton's family - his older brother, B.J., was the second overall pick for the Rays in the 2002 draft.

While the elder Upton has already reached his first World Series, the younger Upton could have the higher ceiling. It took Justin just two full seasons to breeze through the Diamondbacks' minor league system before his first MLB action. In 2006, the 18-year-old prospect hit .263 with 12 homers, 66 RBIs and 15 steals for the Single-A South Bend Silver Hawks in the Midwest League.

He made his big leap in 2007, starting in high Class A and finishing with Arizona's big-league club. He skipped Triple-A ball that year after hitting .319 with 18 homers, 70 RBIs and 19 steals between Class A Visalia and Double-A Mobile.

The majors

Despite his quick ascension to the majors, Upton has not enjoyed as much success as he did during his brief minor league career. He struggled to a .221 average with only two homers and 11 RBIs in 140 at-bats during the 2007 regular season.

It was during this stint that he finally appeared to be in over his head - he struck out a whopping 37 times compared to just 11 walks. Because of his quick pass through the minors, he hadn't seen pitching the likes of the majors, which would explain his struggles at the plate. Keep in mind: Upton was just 19 years old when he made his major league debut at the beginning of August.

However, his 2007 major league season can't be termed a complete disappointment; Upton hit .357 with one triple, one RBI, two runs and a stolen base in 14 postseason at-bats. His strikeouts (three) also equaled his walks in those at-bats.

His 2008 season

This brings us to April 2008 - Upton posted a .577 slugging percentage with 15 RBIs and 14 runs during the month to rank as one of the top fantasy outfielders. There were two worrying signs in this month, though. Upton continued to strike out at an "impressive" rate (24 in 97 at-bats) and his steals dried up (zero attempts).

The league finally caught up to him in May. He hit just .216 with only three homers and 12 RBIs in the month, which included a hitless streak of 28 at-bats. He also struck out a ridiculous 40 times in the month, though this was offset somewhat by his 20 walks. Still, he would finish off June with a .123 monthly average and only one homer in 65 at-bats. July brought with it an oblique injury that would sideline Upton from the majors for most of the next two months.

When returning from the injury, he participated in a rehab assignment in which he finally saw some Triple-A pitching at Tucson. In 61 at-bats, he hit .279 with three homers and 10 RBIs with a pair of steals.

As such, his .308 average over July and August is too small a sample size to think he has overcome his early struggles. He hit just .276 in September, though he did have a four-game stretch in which he smacked three homers.

What to look forward to

Upton will be just 21 when the season kicks off, and he won't turn 22 until mid-August. For a player that has just turned 21 to smack 15 homers in the majors is a rare feat, and he is in special company when it comes to milestones set by the age of 20.

At the age of 20, Upton ranked eighth in major league history in at-bats per home run with one every 29.2 at-bats and 10th all-time in slugging percentage (.435). The only modern-era players ahead of Upton on these lists are Griffey, New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez and former Atlanta Braves outfielder Andruw Jones. Pretty select company to be in.

However, Upton's strikeouts rank among the top 10 for 20-year-olds, so he clearly needs some work. His batting eye in the minors gives one reason to believe he can adapt to major league pitchers as it maxed out at 0.73 during his stint in Double-A (2007). He actually improved that stat at each farm stop, which displays his growth in plate discipline.

He still struck out at a pretty high rate in the minors, but this was offset by his high walks. As such, you could expect his average to be low while his on-base percentage ranks high (think former Diamondbacks slugger Adam Dunn, though not to that extreme).

Another plus was his much-improved isolated power of .213 in the bigs last year, which indicates growth in his ability to smack extra-base hits. He would've ranked among the majors' top 50 in that category had he compiled enough at-bats.

What can you expect when Upton develops? Well, he should be able to hit for power, average, steal a few bases and play solid defense - if all goes according to plan (for the Diamondbacks), that is. The defense could use some work as he is still acclimatizing to right field - he played shortstop during his high school career.

His surroundings

Chase Field has favored right-handed batters - both in batting average and homers - over the last three years. It is not as favorable as it is to left-handed bats, but Upton should still benefit from playing at this park.

The offense surrounding Upton has a solid blend of left- and right-handed bats, though there is not much help at the top of the lineup this year. They don't have any great table setters - they ranked 14th in the NL in on-base percentage (.320) from the first spot in the lineup and 11th from the two-spot (.322) - and their offense was below average in runs scored (720 - 10th in the NL).

They expect recently acquired infielder Felipe Lopez to lead off, but he has a career .330 on-base percentage, so that probably won't help much, either. This could hurt Upton, especially if he hits in the middle.

The aggressive D-backs offense improved slightly last year and they have a boat load of maturing talent. Outfielders Conor Jackson and Chris B. Young, third baseman Mark Reynolds and shortstop Stephen Drew are all 26 or younger, two of them being former first-round picks.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Upton clearly has upside, yet the biggest dilemma for fantasy owners will be getting him when he breaks out, not after. With another season of experience under his belt, Upton should improve just by virtue of seeing more big-league pitches and more work with professional coaches.

He has potential to contribute significantly in all the major rotisserie categories. You'll probably be able to select him in the late rounds of most drafts, ideally as a No. 5 outfielder.

However, some owners are likely going to reach for him based on his considerable upside. Thus, if you want him, it'll likely have to be as a No. 4 outfielder. If he drops, don't hesitate to grab him. Just be prepared for his slumps - he is, after all, just barely old enough to consume alcohol legally.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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