Impact Analysis: Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs

February 5, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

Part of the Chicago Cubs' enormous regular season success during 2008 can be attributed to the breakout performance of rookie catcher Geovany Soto. In addition to his 23 home runs and .285 batting average, Soto lead all National League rookies with 86 RBIs, 35 doubles and 60 extra-base hits, while posting a solid .868 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. 

These statistics made Soto an almost unanimous choice for the National League rookie of the year award. He also earned a trip to the All-Star game, making him the first rookie catcher to ever start on the National League All-Star team.

However, is one impressive season enough to consider Soto an elite fantasy catcher?

Power surge

Table: Geovany Soto's Triple-A Iowa statistics (2006-07)

	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
2006	342	34	92	6	38	.269	.351	.383
2007	385	75	136	26	109	.353	.424	.652

Soto found his power in 2007, as he hit 20 more home runs and recorded 71 more RBIs compared to 2006 - impressive considering he only had 43 more at-bats. In fact, prior to 2007, Soto only hit a combined 25 home runs and recorded just 207 RBIs in 1,574 minor league at-bats.

"Big" issue

Soto's improved play in 2007 can be attributed to shedding excess weight. Prior to the 2007 Triple-A season, Soto made a commitment to better his physical health in order to enhance his play. He went on a strict diet and dropped 30 pounds as the season progressed. "His speed is quicker and in turn his bat is quicker," Iowa Cubs manager Buddy Bailey said that year.

His improved bat speed was very noticeable, as 2007 was his best season in the minor leagues. He was even awarded the Pacific Coast League MVP. This performance resulted in Soto being called up to the majors at the end of the 2007 season, where he played brilliantly, batting .389 with an OPS of 1.100 in 54 at-bats.

Inside the numbers

Soto started off the 2008 season with a torrid April, hitting five home runs, recording 20 RBIs and batting .341 with an OPS of 1.060. Once May hit, Soto still had the power, as he hit four home runs and recorded 18 RBIs, but his average and OPS dipped to .271 and .868, respectively.

From June to July, Soto saw a huge decline in his performance. During this two-month period, he recorded just 20 RBIs and had an average of just .254. His OPS was below .750 in both June and July. Despite this vast drop-off in production, Soto still connected for eight home runs.

Soto turned the heat back up in August, recording 21 RBIs and batting .355 with an OPS of 1.010; however, he only hit three home runs. Once September rolled around, Soto's statistics decreased dramatically, including his batting average, which fell to .241. With the exception of his average, this decrease in statistics can be attributed to his playing time declining as the Cubs locked up their playoff position during the last part of the month. He also had a sore left hand near the end of the month that hurt his chances to contribute.

Despite a roller coaster season, Soto, with the help of veteran catcher Henry Blanco (San Diego Padres), posted solid statistics and looked comfortable behind the plate in his first full major league season. Among catchers, he finished no worse then fourth in home runs, RBIs, batting average and OPS.

Possible drawbacks

As with all rookies, Soto has issues that need improvement. At times he struggled with plate discipline. Despite drawing 62 walks, he sometimes had difficulty being patient and working the count, striking out 121 times (24.5 percent of his at-bats).

As he gains more experience, he will develop a better batting eye (0.51-to-1 walk-to-strikeout ratio last year) and a more patient plate approach, thereby decreasing his strikeouts. He also needs to improve upon his .161 average with runners in scoring position and two men out.

His contact rate was a mediocre 74.7 percent last year, and it remains to be seen if he can overcome that again to put up similar numbers. It was 79.8 in his September 2007 stint.

Also, his power developed in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and though it's being nurtured in Wrigley Field for half the year, it'll be important for him to adjust as pitchers do the same. He actually hit more dingers on the road in '08, but his average was 21 points lower outside of Chi-town. Also, with Blanco now on the Padres, Soto will have to adjust without his positional mentor.

Surroundings

The stage will be set for Soto to continue, and maybe even improve upon, his solid play. Last season, the Cubbies' .354 on-base percentage (OBP) was tied for the second highest in baseball. They will get additional help from newly acquired outfielder Milton Bradley, who posted a career-high .436 OBP last season with the Texas Rangers.

Soto will have no lack of RBI opportunities as he will be batting in a lineup that contains Bradley, first baseman Derrek Lee, third baseman Aramis Ramirez, shortstop Ryan Theriot, and outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Also, his above-average OBP could mean solid production in the runs scored category.

Fantasy baseball outlook

The fact that Soto is a catcher with offensive prowess makes him a real fantasy commodity. Add his strong 2008 season into the equation and some fantasy managers may be drooling on draft day. Given that he has only showed his power in the last two seasons, his track record isn't extensive enough to warrant a pick ahead of more proven catchers, such as Brian McCann (Atlanta Braves), Russell Martin (Los Angeles Dodgers) or Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins).

Soto would be most appropriately drafted in the early middle rounds; however, as he will likely go among the top five catchers, he probably will not last until then. Auction participants should only venture after Soto if they can get him at a value, which again is highly doubtful.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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