Impact Analysis: Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

February 9, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Tim Heaney

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim starting pitcher Ervin Santana turned in a stellar 2008 season that had fantasy owners across the baseball world gleaming with Jack Nicholson grins.

In 32 starts, he went 16-7 with career bests in strikeouts (214), ERA (3.49), WHIP (1.12) and opponents' batting average (.237) in a career-high 219 innings.

He also walked just 47 hitters but did allow 23 bombs to opposing hackers with 15 of them flying over the walls of Angel Stadium.

Santana also posted a career high in strikeouts per nine innings (8.79) and notched a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.55. In addition, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander limited free-swinging opponents to personal bests in on-base percentage (.283), slugging percentage (.368) and on-base plus slugging percentage (.651).

Earning his wings

Before Santana's breakout 2008 campaign, he was nothing more than an anomaly desperately trying to earn his wings under the watchful halo of the California sun. He was inconsistent, moody and sometimes glaringly absent of the arsenal of talent that he was so highly touted for.

Santana's major league career started in 2005 when he went 12-8 in 23 starts with 99 whiffs, 47 walks, a 4.65 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP and a .266 opponents' batting average in 133 2/3 innings.

In 2006, the 26-year-old hurler was a promising 16-8 in 33 starts with 141 strikeouts, 70 walks, a 4.28 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and a .241 opponents' batting average in 204 innings. After his first two seasons, he was a combined 28-16 with a 4.42 ERA in 337 2/3 innings, which undoubtedly piqued the interest of the Angels brass and fantasy owners alike.

Taking a step back

Entering 2007, many pundits were expecting ace-caliber stuff from Santana. However, his weaknesses surfaced early and often. Although Santana possesses a nearly unhittable mid-90s fastball and a slider bestowed upon him by the baseball gods, his knack for relying on his heat when the thermostat is broken and his lack of confidence in his off-speed stuff frequently did him in.

In fact, he was so bad at one point during 2007 that the Angels sent him down to their Triple-A affiliate in Salt Lake. He finished the 2007 campaign at 7-14 in 28 appearances (26 starts) with 126 whiffs, 58 walks, a disgusting 5.76 ERA, a putrid 1.55 WHIP and a telling .288 opponents' batting average in 150 innings.

First flight

Santana's 2008 campaign stated many things about the young pitcher. For instance, he learned to harness his stuff and control his inner mind games that were dramatized on the mound. He also stopped forcing himself to use his curveball, sticking with his two best pitches.

He proceeded to post an increase of 1.24 strikeouts per nine innings over his 2007 total of 7.56. Also, he raised his strikeout-to-walk ratio by 2.38 whiffs over his measly 2007 sum of 2.17.

He also bettered his opponents' batting average (.237) by 51 points over the .288 he allowed opponents to crank off him in 2007. He improved his opponents' OBP (.283) by 74 points over his 2007 mark of .357, bettered his opponents' slugging percentage (.368) by 129 points over his 2007 total of .497 and greatly improved his opponents OPS (.650) by 202 points over the .852 he allowed in 2007.

Santana is still an extreme flyball pitcher, but his improved ability to make hitters miss at pitches outside of the zone should help him. He's simplifying his routine, but he may falter a bit on his homer-happy pitching pattern if he loses some oomph on his fastball. 

Fantasy baseball outlook

Santana is too risky to be taken as a No. 1 starter - he's a weak choice if you're forced to take him as your staff ace. Fantasy owners should focus on snagging a starter with an extensive track record of success as their No. 1 hurler.

Although some may reach for Santana, many will yield in their pursuit for him as an early-round roster addition. If you start to see a trend develop where he's slipping past expectations, grab him as your No. 2 or No. 3 arm, because you may just land one of the draft's most heralded steals.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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