Impact Analysis: Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates

February 11, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

The collective glare from fantasy baseball's most zealous supporters must be blinding for Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit this offseason. After missing much of the previous three seasons to injury, the backstop provided gargantuan production from a position normally desiccated of offense.

Monster year

In 2008 the switch-hitter reached career highs by mashing 15 homers, driving in 69, and scoring 71 times primarily out of the three- and four-holes with a full-time role in an anemic Buccos lineup. The 27-year-old led all qualified National League catchers with a .318 batting average and played with incredible consistently throughout the season, never seeing his batting average dip below .290 in any single month.

In each of the last two seasons Doumit improved his on-base percentage and his slugging. His .338 BABIP was strong again, in line with his career norms, and his 128 adjusted on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS-plus) was solid for a catcher.

(OPS-plus takes into account a player's home park and is modified to reflect a player's standing in relation to the statistic's league average of 100.)

Table: Ryan Doumit's statistics (2006-2008)

Year	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%	LD%	Contact%
2006	149	15	6	17	.208	.322	.389	28.2	16.5	74.3
2007	252	33	9	32	.274	.341	.472	23.4	20.6	77.6
2008	431	71	15	69	.318	.357	.501	12.8	23.4	81.9

While the traditional stats measure up nicely, some more intrusive measures may point to good things for the four-year vet. Doumit's 2008 strikeout percentage was virtually cut in half from 2007 to an impressive 12.8 while his line-drive percentage augmented to 23.4 percent.

Shelved

Quite possibly the most important piece of Doumit's ascension to fringe-elite catching status was being able to stay on the field more often. In addition to three concussions and twice being bothered by a bad hamstring, Doumit has also missed significant playing time due to a high ankle sprain, a sprained wrist and a broken thumb in just four short seasons.

His 431 at-bats in 2008 were close to double his 2007 total of 252. The silver lining: Even after missing nearly a month with a thumb injury last year, Doumit came back showing almost no rust.

Doumit attributed his stronger season to an offseason workout regiment and the Pirates gave their vote of confidence by supplying him with a new three-year, $11.5 million deal - a no-brainer for any franchise.

Negative trends and albatrosses

While his hitting was solid throughout the season, Doumit's power seemed to fall off in the second half. After slugging .565 with 11 round-trippers he managed only four homers and a .442 slugging his final 224 at-bats. The Pirates' increasingly weakening lineup has likely been a main culprit for Doumit's power outage as the Bucs dealt slugging outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady midseason.

Despite the fact that Doumit has become more and more immune to the punchout he has found some sort of aversion to walking. Hurlers have clearly pitched around him as he has increasingly become deadlier with the stick. With a continuing lack of protection, he saw only 53.2 percent fastballs in 2008 compared to 56.2 in 2007 and 57.7 in 2006.

A record-breaking 17 consecutive losing seasons may be in reach this year for Pittsburgh if the bats don't come alive. The team ranked 15th in the NL in on-base percentage and 12th in slugging last season.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Doumit will be losing his positional flexibility, which allowed owners to throw him in the outfield on occasion last season, but his value at a generally weak offensive position is burgeoning. With a better supporting cast, and less casts on his body, he would be much more valuable.

Expect Doumit to produce in line with his draft position. He will likely fall near the end of the top-flight catchers somewhere in the middle rounds, and it is reasonable to expect close to a .300 average, 20 homers and at least one DL stint. He will be an All-Star candidate as long as he can stay healthy but should be a sure enough bet to allow you to focus on other positions before selecting him.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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