Impact Analysis: Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies

February 13, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

Since his breakout season in 2006, Colorado Rockies third baseman/first baseman Garrett Atkins' offensive decline has been a bit of a phenomenon. Although durable and batting fifth in a solid, if unspectacular, lineup at the ever-generous Coors Field in Denver, over the past two seasons Atkins has experienced a decrease in production in practically every major offensive category.

Known for being a great natural hitter with good plate discipline, it has been his lack of the latter that has plagued his plate performance since 2007. While it may be hard to believe, could the 29-year-old already be on an offensive downturn, or will 2009 be the year of his resurgence?

Steady decline

Table: Garrett Atkins' major league statistics (2005-2008)

	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BB/K	AVG	OPS	ISO	HR/FB%
2005	519	62	149	31	13	89	45	72	0.63	.287	.773	.139	9.6
2006	602	117	198	48	29	120	79	76	1.04	.329	.965	.228	13.2
2007	605	83	182	35	25	111	67	96	0.70	.301	.853	.185	10.9
2008	611	86	175	32	21	99	40	100	0.40	.286	.780	.165	9.9

While Atkins' great 2005 debut put him on the fantasy map, it was his stellar 2006 campaign that launched him into fantasy stardom. His 29 home runs, 120 RBIs, .329 batting average and 1.04 walk-to-strikeout ratio highlighted his power, keen batting eye and excellent plate discipline. He also was the poster boy of consistency, as May was the only month in which his batting average dipped below .300.

In 2007, Atkins posted similar power numbers to the prior season; however, he faced dramatic declines in runs scored, doubles, walk-to-strikeout ratio, batting average, on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS), isolated power (ISO) and home runs-per-flyball percentage (HR/FB). He got off to a slow start in April and suffered through a nasty slump in May, posting a paltry .188 batting average.

Despite having approximately the same number of at-bats as the prior two seasons, 2008 brought further declines in the aforementioned categories, along with significant declines in home runs, RBIs and line-drive percentage, along with an increase in groundball percentage (actually a return to '06 territory). He also had three months in which he didn't hit above .269.

A look back at 2008

April had fantasy owners smiling as it appeared Atkins was back to his 2006 form. He hit six home runs, recorded 21 RBIs and boasted a .319 batting average and .865 OPS. The only moot point was his walks, as he only drew three the entire month.

May and June brought out the Mr. Hyde in Atkins. During this two-month period, he combined for only four jacks, 21 RBIs, a .286 batting average and an OPS of .749.

After regaining his step in July, Atkins was unable to finish off the season strong, combining for only six home runs, 31 RBIs and a sub-par .253 batting average and .693 OPS for the months of August and September. He saw minimal improvements, walking 11 times in August, but his penchant for fanning cancelled any headway there.

You lack discipline

Atkins' strength in college and coming up through the minors was his ability to hit for average and reach base. In 2006, his .409 on-base percentage (OBP) was a result of his avid batting eye, solid plate discipline and excellent contact rate.

For the third year in a row his contact percentage has decreased, falling to 85.7 percent in 2008, his lowest since his first full season in the majors. In addition, he has been walking less and striking out more.

The above concern is a direct result of Atkins swinging at more pitches out of the strikezone. In 2006, he would chase garbage pitches 14.7 percent of the time. This percentage rose to 18.7 percent in 2007 and 19.1 percent in 2008.

His open stance is extremely quiet (little movement pre-pitch), which usually signifies a calm approach in the box. In 2007, he broke out of a slump after riding the pine for two days by focusing less on his power and more on connecting - sort of how Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones stopped trying to mash from the right side last year and focused on his batting average.

The Coors factor

Table: Garrett Atkins' home vs. away stats (2008)

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	K	AVG	OPS
Home	298	52	102	21	3	9	55	38	.342	.904
Away	313	34	73	11	0	12	44	62	.233	.661

Atkins' power developed in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In a total of 905 at-bats, Atkins hit 29 home runs and recorded 164 RBIs, while posting a .343 batting average. However, these numbers may have been inflated just a bit due to the league's generous hitting environment.

His power is being further nurtured at Coors Field for half of the season; throughout his career, though, he has actually hit more home runs on the road then at Coors Field, but his average is 77 points lower when away. As noted above, 2008 was no exception.

Not the right stuff

Is he becoming the right-handed version of Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe? The latter can't hit lefties, and it seems Atkins is having trouble hitting his handedness twin.

His last three clips against righties: .327 (2006), .307 (2007) and .265 last year. He crushes lefties, but it seems as right-handed breaking balls are giving him trouble.

Rocky season?

Did the positional switch have something to do with his struggles? First baseman Todd Helton (back) missed ample time last year, and Atkins spent a heavy part of his season receiving infield assists. Maybe with more work at first this spring, Atkins won't be preoccupied with learning how to pick throws and play behind baserunners instead of trying to pinpoint a pitcher's grip. 

The departure of three-time All-Star and Silver Slugger outfielder Matt Holliday (Oakland Athletics) will definitely hurt Atkins' RBI opportunities; however, playing half his games at Coors Field is definitely a positive.

Prospect infielder Ian Stewart is waiting for his chance to play, and the Rockies want to oblige. Since Helton probably won't be a full-time player as they try to keep him healthy, Stewart and Atkins could be in the lineup together often, with Atkins seeing throws coming across the diamond from Stewart.

Fantasy baseball outlook

At such a young age, Atkins' decline is a bit perplexing. Along with most of his offensive numbers, his consistency, plate discipline and batting eye have regressed over the past two seasons.

In order to revert back to his 2006 form, he must get back to working counts and choosing his pitches. He also needs to avoid the frequent slumps that beset his 2008 season.

Also, with 2009 trade rumors floating around for Atkins, his stock will probably take a dip because of the perceived damage caused by a departure from Coors Field. He has proven he can hit for power on the road, though, so that effect may not be as dramatic as it could be on someone with Coors-friendly stats like Holliday.

While it's risky to bet that he will reverse his downturn this year, it's hard to believe that he will continue his offensive descent long term. Also, his numbers aren't even terrible given the value he's going at this year. It's possible that 2006 is an outlier and he's returning to his normal expected value.

If he is available at the end of the early rounds or beginning of the middle rounds, he might be worth the gamble; however, proceed with caution if you draft him as your starting third baseman and have a solid backup plan ready. His dual positional eligibility is a plus, but he's more valuable at the fantasy hot corner. Be careful with him during the season if he starts out in Colorado. You may want to try to sell him high early in the season before trade rumors start circling.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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