Impact Analysis: Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins

February 18, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Tim Heaney

Last season, the breakout of Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kevin Slowey earned him comparisons to former Twins pitcher Brad Radke, a soft-tosser capable of crafting strikeouts. Like Radke, Slowey's strengths are his command and his control. His fastball only peaks in the low 90s. Slowey mixes in a slider, a curveball and the occasional changeup. He does a good job of getting batters to swing and miss when he's locating his pitches well.

Number crunching

Slowey's career strikeout rate (K/9) of 6.74 in his two-year MLB term is underwhelming but impressive for someone who throws a low-velocity fastball. His 123 strikeouts last season came in an erratic fashion. Twenty-two of his August strikeouts came against a free-swinging Oakland Athletics lineup. With Triple-A Rochester in 2007, he posted a 7.20 K/9 en route to winning the Most Valuable Pitcher award in the International League, so it's not all an illusion.

When he is on his game, Slowey is an effective flyball pitcher, assisted by a generally pitcher-friendly Metrodome, and does not walk many batters. In 160 1/3 innings pitched last season, he issued only 24 free passes, earning him a walk rate (BB/9) of 1.35, the lowest of any pitcher with a minimum of 160 innings pitched.

Troubling signs

Still, when Slowey struggles his pitches find too much of the plate and he can be hit often and hard, prone to the deep fly. In 27 starts last season, Slowey was tagged with four or more earned runs on eight occasions and was taken deep on multiple home runs in five games. For his short career, Slowey has allowed an atrocious 1.51 home runs per nine innings (HR/9).

Slowey ended 2008 in a September slump and was hit on the wrist with a line drive in the last game of the season. Earlier in the season, he missed some time with an infected fingernail and a biceps strain. He has been otherwise durable. In 2007, Slowey pitched 200 1/3 innings combined in Triple-A Rochester and the big leagues.

That 2007 season was rather forgettable. Slowey gave up 14 home runs in his first eight career starts and multiple home runs in five consecutive games. Although he looked a little better in his second chance in September, Slowey was shelled as opponents hit .288 against him overall, the worst coming in June.

Rebounding

The start of the 2008 season was also rocky. He went 2-6 in his first eight starts. In those games, Slowey gave up 9.69 hits per nine innings with a 5.15 ERA, but over the next 14 starts Slowey improved vastly while getting outstanding run support from the offense, going 9-2. That run culminated with a stellar August - Slowey went 4-1 in six starts with a 2.92 ERA and 37 strikeouts.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Though it's normally wise to target someone with more dominating strikeout potential, Slowey is an ideal No. 4 fantasy starter - tons of upside and a little unproven, but you probably won't risk much at where you can grab him in the late part of the middle rounds. If he free-falls into the late rounds of your process, then you may have a steal.

Beware of the knowledge of your fellow drafters - not many will let him fall that far. You may be able to build the deep part of your offense before you can acquire him, but if you're drafting with fantasy experts or knowledgeable players, you may need to reach, making the profit less desirable.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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