Impact Analysis: Baltimore Orioles bullpen

February 23, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

When it comes to closers, two is typically considered a crowd. Assuming the veracity of the statement, how does one describe a situation with possible three ... or four?

In June, the Baltimore Orioles had all but forgotten former closer Chris Ray, who had compiled 49 saves, a 3.19 ERA and a respectable 1.19 WHIP over the previous three seasons. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of the 2008 MLB session.

Southpaw George Sherrill, acquired from Seattle during the departure of Erik Bedard, took the reins and posted 28 saves with a 4.08 ERA en route to his first All-Star appearance. Somehow, however, the wheels fell off.

In the season's second half the 31-year-old was scrapped with an inflamed shoulder and tossed just 13 2/3 frames, recording only three saves. He allowed 15 hits and nine walks to boot with a deplorable 6.59 ERA. His walk rate increased. At season's end the once hot commodity seemed to be in fisticuffs with chopped liver over rank.

A decision looms

Between 2005 and 2007, Ray allowed a stingy .210 opponents' batting average and a .249 BABIP. He struck out 8.32 batters per nine innings but has walked 3.80 per nine.

His impressive 2006 season showed the baseball world that he had legit closer ability as he went 4-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP while recording 33 saves. In nine farm innings last year, Ray fanned 13 batters without allowing a free pass. That could signal the dominance is returning.

With Ray, 27, reportedly pain-free and throwing well, the closer situation has become deeply opaque.

Ray has the edge on Sherrill in many long-term aspects. They can both strike guys out (Sherrill punched out 9.79 per nine last season), but Sherrill, almost 32 years old, cannot keep ducks off the pond nor can he keep the ball on the ground like Ray - two of the most important features of a closer's makeup.

In 2009 Sherrill walked an unreal 5.57 per nine; his career groundball percentage sits at 32.9, while Ray's is 37.7 and improved incrementally each season prior to 2008. Sherrill didn't adjust well to leaving his longtime lefty specialist role - his burnout told that story.

The best thing going for Sherrill right now is the severity of Ray's injury. We've heard clubs say their pitchers coming off surgery were ready only to see them take major setbacks, like the Minnesota Twins' Francisco Liriano and the San Diego Padres' Mark Prior. Ray is admittedly cautious - not focusing on the closer's role, but simply trying to stay healthy and strong.

The club has made it known that they will probably interchange bullpen roles in Spring Training to further examine the best candidate for the job. Sherrill, who dominated lefties to the tune of a .190 average and a .534 on-base-plus-slugging percentage last season, seems to have the inside track, and Ray would prove he's healthy if he wants to take over.

Dark horses

The word "if" also leads us in other directions.

Two more interesting candidates to take saves in Baltimore could be right-handers Jim Johnson and Jim Miller.

Johnson, 25, put up terrific rookie numbers last season as a middle reliever going 2-4 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 68 2/3 innings. His groundball rate of 58.7 dwarfed anything that Ray or Sherrill have done and more than makes up for his lack of closer's "stuff," most notably strikeout stuff as he struck out just 4.98 per nine last year while walking 3.67.

However, his season ended on a down note as he allowed 11 earned runs in his final 22 1/3 innings before succumbing to shoulder impingement syndrome in September.

It's fun to note that Johnson did not have an impeccable minor league record with a 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, suggesting his 2008 tallies may be difficult to reproduce. Still, he'll probably be a part of the team's carousel in camp games, so he'll at least receive an extended look.

Miller, 26, is another dark horse as a permanent fixture for the closer role. In his first 7 2/3 major league innings last season he allowed one earned run and struck out eight while picking up one save. His groundball rate in limited action sat at 47.8 percent, and his minor league stats shine up a little better with a 3.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

What ranks Miller above Johnson: his career 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, which screams dominance potential. Still, Miller is coming off a 50 percent tear of a tendon in his upper right arm, and he's passing up surgery.

This is a risky proposition; the abundance of Orioles arms may work against his chances to break camp if the team feels he's not up to code health-wise. Still, Miller may wind up as the closer for Triple-A Norfolk - a consolation prize that could pay off for you later.

Fantasy baseball outlook

With an already abhorrent outlook for the Orioles this season, the likelihood of any of the four racking up 35 saves seems like a long shot.

Sherrill will probably get the bulk of the saves to begin the year, but expect Ray to ease into the role eventually and take hold of the position by season's end. If Ray can't prove he's healthy, however, Johnson has a legitimate chance to challenge Sherrill for saves. Miller has the stuff to assume the role but needs the opportunity.

Sherrill and Ray are best saved the late rounds of deep mixed leagues. Don't let either become your first or second closer. Keep tabs on Ray's progress, but you're probably still better off taking him before Sherrill if you're already settling for a closer type this late.

In this case, it's more important to draft for the better season-long skills instead of reluctantly taking Sherrill on the basis that he'll probably start the season in the role.

Johnson shouldn't be drafted outside of cavernous AL-only games. He doesn't offer much in terms of confidence-building closer material.

Miller is a more appropriate draft target for AL-only setups, but you must remember he might not even make the team out of camp. End-gamers can give him a look if they're fishing for a deep catch.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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