Impact Analysis: Washington Nationals outfield

February 26, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Tim Heaney

In 2008, the Washington Nationals dwelled near the basement in nearly every offensive category all season long. If things are going to improve this season, the charge will be led by their improved - albeit crowded - outfield.

The addition of first baseman/outfielder Adam Dunn (Arizona Diamondbacks) has received the most headlines, for good reason, but the remaining collection of outfielders provides some potential fantasy value. The addition of Dunn allows some of the younger players to slide down into spots later in the lineup where they will be under less pressure to produce, thus becoming more comfortable.

Milledge Dollar Baby

Outfielder Lastings Milledge, who turns 24 in April, possesses the most upside. If not for a groin strain in late June, Milledge might have put together a 20-home run, 20-stolen base season in his first full-time stint in the big leagues.

Shortly after returning, Milledge ended the season with a strong showing in August and September. In those 198 at-bats, Milledge hit .318 with seven home runs, 27 RBIs and 11 stolen bases.

Milledge is essentially a lock to get the everyday reps somewhere in the outfield (currently in center field) and should be a fixture in the middle of the order.

To take his game to the next level, Milledge needs to improve his discipline at the plate. Last season, he walked only 6.8 percent of the time while striking out an 18.4 percent clip. Improvements in these areas would afford Milledge, a career .263 hitter, a much better opportunity to hit for average. He hit .303 in 1,190 career farm at-bats despite a 0.48 batting eye ratio.

The brash attitude that earned him a ticket out of the New York Mets organization was absent last year. He recently gave his No. 44 jersey to the aforementioned Dunn. Yielding the only number he has worn on a Major League jersey is great sign that Milledge is no doubt maturing.

Put down your Dukes, Elijah

The nation's capital contains another young player, outfielder Elijah Dukes, with a high ceiling. Dukes, 24 years old until June, was limited to just 81 games last season due to knee surgery and a calf strain.

When it comes to his attitude, like Milledge, there are some strings attached. In fact, the addition of Dukes prompted the team to assign a special assistant to address player concerns and help him stay out of trouble. Last season, Dukes showed up an opposing pitcher after a homer, which led to a dugout shouting match with manager Manny Acta.

Dukes is a raw athlete with tons of tools, but he put things together when he had playing time. June and September were the only two months in which Dukes played more than 20 games. In those 181 at bats, Dukes hit .276 with nine home runs and 30 RBIs while also stealing six bases - when healthy and focused, Dukes can produce.

The Fish market

A trade from the Florida Marlins brought in 30-year-old outfielder Josh Willingham. Last season with the Marlins, Willingham started on fire until a lower back injury cost him nearly two months of playing time. In his first 91 at bats, Willingham hit .341 with six home runs and 16 RBIs, but over the next 260 at bats, he hit .223 with nine home runs and 35 RBIs.

Willingham strikes out a lot (a 22.9 percent career strikeout rate), so he may never hit for average. In fact, his batting average has been declining over the last three seasons.

In the field, Willingham is a poor defender and could lose late-inning at-bats to a defensive replacement.

Unlike Milledge and Dukes, Willingham has a large enough sample size to illustrate what he is capable of. He's a power bat capable of hot streaks; over the last three seasons Willingham has averaged 21 home runs and 71 RBIs a year. Still, his skills aren't anything special.

Seeing (former) Reds

A pair of former Reds, the organization Nationals general manager Jim Bowden used to run, may be lost in the shuffle.

Outfielder Austin Kearns was limited by a stress fracture in his left foot and right elbow arthroscopic surgery last season. In the previous two seasons, Kearns averaged 20 home runs and 80 RBIs a year.

Despite being one of the better defenders on the club, Kearns is unlikely to get enough playing time to approach those numbers playing in Washington. He can't hit righties well and remains a streaky hitter.

Outfielder Wily Mo Pena (shoulder) is coming off surgery to repair a partial tear his left rotator cuff. Pena's career strikeout rate is an eye-opening 32.7 percent, and he's pretty much only serviceable against southpaws. When he does get a hold of the ball, Pena has shown the ability to produce tape measure blasts. However, Pena's history of injuries, lack of consistency and questionable work ethic has left him without significant playing time.

Free Willie

Arguably the best leadoff hitter on the team, utility man Willie Harris, may be relegated to the bench. Last year, Harris came out of nowhere to hit 13 home runs after cracking a total of only seven long balls in the previous seven seasons. Harris does have experience at second base, so his fantasy value also hinges on second baseman Anderson Hernandez in addition to the quagmire in the outfield.

Fantasy baseball outlook

The Nationals clearly have a logjam on their hands. Dunn could replace first baseman Nick Johnson, freeing up a spot in the outfield. However, the team has gone on record that they would prefer having both in the lineup. The possibility remains, though, that the team could trade Johnson this spring.

Besides Dunn, Milledge and Dukes are the only other Washington outfielders that should have their names called on mixed draft days. Either would make a good late-round pick as a No. 5 fantasy outfielder with the potential to perform higher. Remember to acknowledge the on- and off-field risks that come with both players.

Willingham could serve the same role in NL-only formats but is worth monitoring if he is promised a starting gig. Kearns, Pena and Harris are best avoided until their roles are better defined and they earn time on the field.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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