Impact Analysis: B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays

February 27, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Ilan Mochari
Edited by Tim Heaney

What can fantasy owners expect from Tampa Bay Rays outfielder B.J. Upton? In 2007, Upton was the proverbial five-tool man with seemingly infinite upside - and second-base eligibility, too. In 2008, the 24-year-old Upton declined in nearly every stat except stolen bases. This categorical fall-off took place even though Upton played in 16 more games in 2008 than he did in 2007.

How much of Upton's disappointing campaign was attributable to the torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder? Upton reportedly played through the injury, dating back to May. Yet he seemed to recover his power stroke in the postseason, drilling seven home runs in 66 at-bats.

Upton finally had surgery to repair the shoulder November 11, and he might not be ready for Opening Day. Going forward, questions linger about whether the shoulder will inhibit his power and, by extension, his fantasy value. Upton's fantasy value depends more than ever on power because his second-base eligibility is now gone.

Plate discipline

Viewed apart from the expectations his 2007 season created, Upton's 2008 was very good. His on-base percentage (.383) ranked 19th in the majors; his 97 walks tied him for eighth. Combine these numbers with his 44 stolen bases (fifth), and you have a formidable offensive weapon, both in real life and fantasy. It's this patience that has Upton slated to hit either first or second in the order in 2009.

The deeper numbers reveal just how disciplined Upton was at the plate. He walked in 15.4 percent of his at-bats, ranking eighth. More impressively, Upton swung at only 15 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. In this particular stat, which is called O-Swing percentage, Upton was tied for the major league lead (with St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus).

Of course, there are no fantasy trophies handed out for O-Swing or walk percentage. Still, these sabermetrics suggest that the egregious decline in Upton's power numbers had little to do with sloppiness at the plate.

The power outage

Plate discipline aside, it is difficult to gloss over just how precipitously Upton's power diminished in 2008. His slugging fell from .508 to .401. His home runs dropped from 24 to nine. His RBIs dipped from 82 to 67.

It's easy to attribute such shrinkage to the shoulder problem, especially given Upton's cagey eye for the strike zone and postseason recovery. Yet there is one stat that flies in the face of Upton's seeming plate discipline: he struck out 134 times. His 25.2 strikeout percentage was tied for the 19th highest mark in the majors.

That is one of Upton's least flattering stats. Yet if it is viewed historically, it still provides room for optimism: In 2007, Upton posted a 32.5 strikeout percentage. In other words, as often as Upton whiffed in 2008, it is an area he actually improved in.

Likewise, Upton's glowing 15.4 walk percentage was a marked improvement from his 2007 standard (12.1). These numbers are consistent with the rise in Upton's contact rate from 2007 (72.8) to 2008 (80.5).

A tale of two sluggers

If you graphed Upton's 2008 campaign, you would view a curve that approximates a check mark - a decent start in the spring, a dip in June, a nadir in July, then a gradual resurgence, cresting with a scintillating postseason. Here's the breakdown:

Table: B.J. Upton's monthly splits (2008)

	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS
March/April	99	18	3	21	4	.293	.819
May	94	13	0	13	13	.319	.861
June	98	21	3	7	6	.245	.781
July	79	11	0	5	9	.203	.589
Aug.	105	15	2	17	8	.286	.819
Sept./Oct.	55	7	1	4	4	.291	.821
ALDS	18	5	3	4	0	.278	1.205
ALCS	28	8	4	11	2	.321	1.180
World Series	20	3	0	1	4	.250	.500

How much of Upton's ups and downs are effects of the shoulder? While there is no way anyone but Upton can truly know, the numbers certainly suggest that his labrum was at its worst in July. That is the only month - in both 2007 and 2008 - in which Upton's OPS has ever been below .741.

In other words, Upton's OPS in July was no mere dip: It was a plummet, a radical 152-point drop from his previous monthly low to a subterranean .589. Upton's .203 average in July was also a career low by quite a margin. His next worst month for batting average was .244.

On the flip side, there is no hard evidence linking Upton's postseason surge to a healing shoulder (or Upton's increased ability to play through the injury). Here's what we do know: Upton's OPS recovered from its woeful July and stabilized in August (.819) and September (.821).

The postseason arrived, and Upton finally seemed to regain the power he'd displayed in 2007, when he posted a 1.102 OPS in March-April and a 1.074 OPS in July. Upton's otherworldly ALDS and ALCS made fans and fantasy owners wonder: If this guy is healthy, could he become the best offensive player in the game?

The shoulder: an update

Upton has hit off a tee in spring training and he has also participated in soft-toss drills. Still, there is no guarantee he will be ready for opening day.

He might miss the first week of games, perhaps depending on the temperature. "They said cold weather is probably going to be an issue with it, make it ache a little bit," Upton has said. "So we're going to be careful with it and hopefully when they get back off the road, I can start up. There's really no rush to it. We just want to make sure I'm 100 percent before I get back on the field."

The prospect of Upton missing one week should not affect your draft-day valuations. While it's not that much time, sometimes one week becomes two, and so on.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Upton is risky within the first two rounds of drafts, but he should be a target if you can acquire him after the first two. Beware that the shoulder problem could linger and have a contingency plan if you pick him as a No. 1 outfielder.

Remember, too, that Upton is only 24: In keeper leagues, therefore, he is worth reaching for in the first two rounds. His shoulder recuperation may limit his power in 2009, but there is no denying Upton's 30-30 potential for the next several seasons.

In short: Upton's upside is hard to pass up, but be smart if he's in your wheelhouse. He is ideal as a No. 2 outfielder, but to draft him as such you will have to settle for bargains at other positions. The postseason heroics did nothing but inflate Upton's price tag, which was already steep because of his superb 2007 and pedigree as a former No. 2 overall pick.

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Ilan Mochari
Ilan Mochari has been a KFFL contributor since 2007.

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