Impact Analysis: Boston Red Sox shortstop

March 2, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Tim Heaney

Spring training civil wars over specific positions are a common occurrence under the watchful glare of the Florida and Arizona landscapes. One brewing battle that is starting to simmer on the battlegrounds of Fort Myers, Fla. is between Boston Red Sox shortstops Julio Lugo and Jed Lowrie.

The first war drum in this spring training feud was initially heard during the 2008 season when Lugo suffered a season-ending quadriceps strain July 11 against the Baltimore Orioles. He finished the campaign with a .268 average, 13 doubles, one dinger, 22 RBIs, 27 runs scored, 12 stolen bases and a .685 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in 261 at-bats.

Lowrie grasped the full-time role the next day en route to a .248 average with 21 doubles, three triples, one home run, 39 RBIs and 28 runs scored in 218 at-bats as a starter the rest of the way. For the season, Lowrie hit .258 with 25 doubles, two long balls, 46 RBIs, 34 runs scored, one steal and a .739 OPS in 260 at-bats.

Lowrie's numbers are even more impressive once you consider that the soon-to-be 25-year-old did most of his offensive damage after he suffered a hairline fracture of the left wrist during a Triple-A Pawtucket game after Boston demoted him May 11.

Who-lio?

In Lugo, the Sox have a severe defensive liability (16 errors in 81 games in the field last season) at one of the most important positions in the game.

However, he has averaged 20.4 steals per year over his nine seasons in the bigs and sports a somewhat palatable .271 career average, but he has never reached 100 runs scored in a campaign and maintains a subpar .725 lifetime OPS. His inconsistent plate discipline hasn't helped. He is, however, a career .301 hitter with a .782 OPS in 519 lifetime Fenway Park at-bats.

Other than his atrocious defense, Lugo has a propensity to suffer injuries on a consistent basis. A frail middle infielder is not a very sought-after or valuable commodity in a game where consistency and team chemistry are so highly regarded.

At the not-so-tender age of 33, Lugo's best years, if there were any, are way behind him. Over his last three seasons he has combined for a .258 batting average with a gradually deteriorating offensive skill set and defensive prowess.

Even with his noticeable decline, Lugo might regain his starting gig that he so longs for because the Red Sox have $9 million invested in him this season. Also, if Lugo starts off well, that could open up a trade market for him as the season wears on.

Jed-i knight

Lowrie started off his Red Sox career by mashing at a .310 clip in his first 42 at-bats (17 games) combined between April and May of last year. In his first full big-league month as a starter in August, he hit .284 with 12 doubles, three triples, one home run, 24 RBIs, 13 runs scored and a .844 OPS in 102 at-bats while playing with a hairline fracture in his left wrist.

With the Sox in 2008, Lowrie didn't commit one error playing shortstop in 49 games - he did commit two manning the hot corner for a grand total of two miscues in 81 games.

In the minors, Lowrie maintained a fairly dependable rate of offensive production. In 2007 between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket, he hit .298 with 47 doubles, eight triples, 13 dingers, 70 RBIs, 82 runs scored and a .896 OPS in 497 at-bats.

For Pawtucket in 2008, the switch-hitting hacker posted a .268 average in 198 at-bats with 14 doubles, two triples, five homers, 32 RBIs, 35 runs scored and a .793 OPS.

As his minor league numbers indicate, he really isn't the Punch and Judy hitter that his wrist injury led most fantasy owners to believe. An 8-for-51 late-season slide gave most fantasy owners that perception.

Lowrie's strong defense, knack to swing a nice bat when healthy and good standing with Red Sox Nation are all vital elements in what could land Lowrie the starting gig in 2009.

Lowell's role

Out of the two, Lowrie appears to be much better suited as Boston's everyday man at shortstop, but his positional versatility (second base, shortstop and third base) might make him more valuable to the team's needs as a utility player. He could steal 10 bases if he were given the opportunities since he has good baserunning fundamentals, but that hasn't statistically translated yet.

Still, aging third baseman Mike Lowell's (hip) iffy health might open up time to have both in the lineup at some point this season. He'll also probably rest more often this year even if he proves able to play.

Fantasy baseball outlook

The victor of this epic battle should be considered a late-round target as a middle infielder. Lugo could help because of his speed, but Lowrie may have the edge because he's younger, cheaper and a better overall player. He offers much more upside and has already showed signs of becoming a stable run producer at a position short of those types of hitters.

A Lugo trade would probably help both sides if he landed in a situation that allowed him to start and showcase his base thievery. Ultimately, each player's true fantasy value comes down to who wins the starting job in Boston. In your draft, target Lowrie first given his multi-positional eligibility and his brighter future.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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