Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Fantasy baseball sleepers at closer

March 31, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Ilan Mochari
Edited by Tim Heaney

To win a fantasy baseball league, you need to pick out the best sleepers that can provide value in fantasy baseball drafts or fantasy baseball auctions. Which sleepers for saves should be highlighted on your fantasy baseball cheat sheets this year?

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NEW - Juan Cruz, Kansas City Royals

Despite his lithe frame (6-foot-2, 145 pounds), Cruz packed a 94.3 mph heater on average in 2008. His dominance (12.37 K/9) led all NL relievers in 2008; his ERA, groundball percentage and line-drive rates all improved for the third straight season. Now the bad news: Cruz's shaky command (5.40 BB/9 in 2008) does not bode well for an AL transition. Moreover, Kyle Farnsworth may get first dibs on saves if closer Joakim Soria hits the sidelines. Cruz is still worth a flier in AL-only formats, but your squad can live without him.

NEW - Mark Melancon, New York Yankees

The former all-time saves leader at the University of Arizona, Melancon displayed control (1.80 BB/9) and strikeout ability (9.90 K/9) at Triple-A Scranton in 2008 after a quick escalation from high Single-A Tampa; he progressed well after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2007. He seemed like a safe bet to make the Yankees bullpen in 2009, but an up-and-down spring (7.94 ERA) landed him back in Scranton. Nevertheless, the rifle-armed (94 mph fastball) righty belongs on all mixed-league watch lists. He remains the Yankees' top relief pitching prospect, and the No. 1 name on the "eventual successors to Mariano Rivera" list. They may give him the Joba Chamberlain call-up treatment in 2009 if they're desperate for bullpen help.

NEW - Ryan Perry, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers' first-round pick in 2008, the 22-year-old Perry has pitched impeccably this spring, allowing one earned run and whiffing 11 batters in 10 2/3 innings. With his mid-90s gas, "plus" changeup and improving slider, it's easy to be optimistic about Perry, given the inconsistencies and injuries of the Tigers' bullpen alternatives (Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya (shoulder)). By all means, put Perry on your watch lists. Just don't draft him: He has never pitched above Single-A, and he is hardly a lock to make the Tigers, let alone record saves for them. Beware, though: He's making a strong case for an MLB spot.

J.J. Putz, New York Mets

The stage is set for Putz, an elite closer with the Seattle Mariners in 2006 and 2007, to dominate the NL as a setup man. He belongs on mixed-league rosters for this reason alone. He is also an ideal hedge on Francisco Rodriguez, who has exhibited distant augurs of a fall-off. Lest you believe Putz is past his peak, consider this: He battled through costochondritis and a hyperextended elbow and posted a 2.95 ERA after the break. He still throws heat, too: In his last 2008 game, his fastball clocked in at 98 mph.

Jose Arredondo, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Arredondo's superb rookie numbers marked him as the Angels' closer in waiting; if Brian Fuentes struggles adjusting to AL lineups, the future may arrive soon. Fuentes should benefit from the move from Coors Field to Angel Stadium, but he is also not far removed from losing the job while with the Colorado Rockies in 2007. Even if Fuentes succeeds, Arredondo has late-round value in mixed leagues: He was a wins vulture last year, and the offensively challenged Angels play a lot of close games. Their setup men tend to amass innings and strikeouts, not to mention a few saves.

Dan Wheeler, Tampa Bay Rays

If you lack faith in 39-year-old Troy Percival - he had offseason back surgery, made three DL trips in 2008 and struggled with control (5.32 BB/9) - then Wheeler is probably the Rays reliever to target in late rounds of mixed drafts. As Percival's fill-in, Wheeler notched 13 saves (3.12 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) in 2008. His strand rate (78.9) was closer-worthy too. Granted, Wheeler's 54.1 flyball percentage was worrisome, as was his lowest strikeout rate (7.19 K/9) since 2003. Still, Wheeler is decent bet to lead the Rays in saves, although he may face challenges from flamethrower Grant Balfour (12.65 K/9) and veteran Jason Isringhausen (293 career saves), among others.

Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles

Though George Sherrill held down the Orioles' closer job in 2008 (31 saves), the splits tell a different tale: Sherrill notched only three saves and an execrable 6.59 ERA after the break. If he cannot get his groove back, Ray might be first in line for save opportunities. Ray (Tommy John surgery) has to prove he's 100 percent in Spring Training, though. You can draft him in late rounds as a No. 4 reliever with stash value. Ray is a former closer (33 saves, 2.73 ERA in 2006). The mental part of the job won't faze him.

Jon Rauch, Arizona Diamondbacks

While Rauch's high flyball rate translated poorly to Arizona's Chase Field (6.56 ERA after the break), he remains the most likely candidate to close games if Chad Qualls struggles in April. It could happen: Qualls' superb September (seven saves, 0.00 ERA in September) made many fantasy owners forget the nightmares of May (7.84 ERA) and July (6.23 ERA). Furthermore, Qualls has never closed for two straight months, let alone a full season. Rauch, by contrast, flashed pre-break dominance (17 saves, 2.85 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) as the Washington Nationals' closer in 2008. Don't draft Rauch, except in NL-only formats, though.

Fernando Rodney, Detroit Tigers

Tigers manager Jim Leyland has indicated that only Rodney and Brandon Lyon are in the mix to close. How can Leyland trust Lyon? Yes, Lyon saved 26 for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2008, but his second-half swan dive (8.46 ERA, .381 batting average against) was wretched. While Rodney's control in 2008 was awful (6.69 BB/9), his rates for strikeouts (10.93 K/9) and stranding runners (71.7) improved. Moreover, his opponents batted only .230. If Rodney has improved his location, as he says, and is healthy, he may earn Leyland's faith. He is well worth keeping an eye on in mixed leagues.

Ryan Tucker, Florida Marlins

Though he dominated at Double-A Carolina in 2008 (1.58 ERA in 91 innings), Tucker has never pitched at Triple-A, and his major league stats (8.27 ERA in 37 innings) are woeful. Why speculate on Tucker, then? Don't forget Matt Lindstrom's control problems. While he rocked in September (five saves, 0.97 WHIP), he has never closed for a full season. It's strange that someone who can touch 100 mph can't strike more guys out too. Monitor the prized prospect Tucker, who was only recently moved to the 'pen, in NL-only leagues and consider him for a flier.

Rafael Soriano, Atlanta Braves

Braves closer Mike Gonzalez is back for his first full season after Tommy John surgery. His post-break numbers (5.09 ERA, 61.4 strand rate) were atrocious. Soriano, while brittle himself, has a track record as the rare setup man worth a mixed-league roster spot for WHIP, ERA and strikeouts. It makes sense for mixed-league owners to remember Soriano in the final rounds. He should bolster your ratios and may even snag a few saves.

Jensen Lewis, Cleveland Indians

Kerry Wood has not had an injury-free season since 2003. His career interleague ERA is 5.44 in 87 2/3 innings. It's hard to have complete faith in him, despite his superb 2008 with the Chicago Cubs. That's why Lewis is worth a late pick in AL-only leagues. There's nothing sexy about his skills or stats, but he saved 13 of 13 chances after taking over as the Indians' closer last August. He could be in next in line.

Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays

Downs has quietly dominated setup duty in the past two seasons. In 2008, he allowed just 54 hits in 70 2/3 innings and picked up five saves, all before the break while B.J. Ryan wasn't available on consecutive days. Downs has also added 3 mph to his fastball since 2006. Ryan was on the track back, but his violent windup makes re-injury a possibility. Downs, along with others in the Toronto 'pen, deserves to be kept in mind all mixed leagues in case the door opens.

Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins

Another Matt Lindstrom insurance policy, Nunez has decent control for a reliever (2.79 BB/9 last year). His K's per nine innings tanked last season (4.84) due to a strained lat muscle suffered in the second half, but the average velocities of his three big pitches increased over the whole season. He's a bit inconsistent, but a healthy Nunez should have more strikeout punch than last year. The 25-year-old has a nice arsenal that would put him in line to succeed Lindstrom if he struggles.

Mark Lowe, Seattle Mariners

Lowe is the most intriguing candidate in Seattle's not-so-amazing race for saves. Elbow injuries have marred his potential, his control rate is bloodcurdling, and he had terrible June, July and August performances last year. Positives: He was once considered a future stopper, he has competent K rates, he's reportedly healthy, and he recovered with a 3.12 September ERA last year. We recommend saving him for the last two rounds of deep mixed leagues, at best.

Carlos Villanueva, Milwaukee Brewers

Villy was slated to assume the savior job before Milwaukee inked Trevor Hoffman - truly Hell's Bells for his fantasy stock. Villanueva, a former swingman, holds a solid 7.52 career K rate and rectified his command ratio last year. He doesn't have overpowering stuff - like Hoffman, he relies on his changeup - but he found his niche in the 'pen (2.12 ERA in relief last year). There are other intriguing prospects for stolen Brewers saves, but Villanueva has the team's trust in late innings.

Jim Miller, Baltimore Orioles

Hovering behind the performance risk of current stopper George Sherrill and the injury risk of next-in-line option Chris Ray is Miller, who carries comparable strikeout capability. The problem? He's coming off a tendon tear in his upper right arm and is foregoing surgery - plus, he has pitched just 7 2/3 MLB frames. The thing is, he struck out eight in that time, resembling his farm average of 11.4 per nine innings. Miller is another small investment (post-draft pool) to keep in your back pocket.

Steven Shell, Washington Nationals

Though his fastball averages 89 mph, Shell's command of his curveball (which he threw a whopping 27.7 percent of the time) baffled batters in 2008: Shell allowed a mere 34 hits in 50 innings, and his 85.7 percent strand rate was tied for third among NL relievers with at least 40 innings pitched. Granted, some of Shell's success was attributable to his unsustainably low .225 batting average on balls in play. Nonetheless, Shell could earn save opportunities in 2009 if relief pitcher Joel Hanrahan (4.48 BB/9) struggles in his first full season as closer. For that reason, Shell is worth a late-round flier in NL-only formats.

Jared Burton, Cincinnati Reds

With his reliable cutter (thrown 51.6 percent of the time) and low-90s fastball, Burton posted stellar pre-break stats (2.23 ERA, 50 K's in 48 1/3 innings) before a strained latissimus muscle sidelined him for 39 games and sabotaged his second half (7.84 ERA). Still, a healthy Burton should challenge David Weathers (1.53 WHIP) for eighth-inning duties. If you're not sold on closer Francisco Cordero - his walks (4.86 BB/9 last year) and Spring Training ERA (18.00) merit scrutiny - consider Burton as a final-round flier in NL-only formats.

Warner Madrigal, Texas Rangers

After a wretched Major League debut (he allowed six earned runs in one-third of an inning at Yankee Stadium), Madrigal notched a 3.28 ERA in his next 30 appearances, including a 2.95 ERA at the hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mixing his heater (93 mph) with a splitter he throws for strikes, Madrigal, a converted outfielder, stands out in a bullpen of maybes (closer Frank Francisco, setup man C.J. Wilson) and reclamations (Eddie Guardado, Brandon Donnelly and Derrick Turnbow). You should not draft Madrigal, but monitor him; Francisco's flyball tendencies just might undermine his bid to keep the closer gig, though don't get your hopes too high.

Shawn Kelley, Seattle Mariners

Keeper league speculators, pay attention: Kelley's mid-90s gas has dazzled skipper Don Wakamatsu this spring. Still, Kelley has not yet pitched at Triple-A, and his walks (3.59 BB/9) temper his otherwise superb Double-A numbers (9.28 K/9, 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings). Then again, with banged-up Brandon Morrow (forearm) still slated to start, the Mariners boast a paper-thin bullpen, even after signing the rehabbing Chad Cordero (shoulder). Do you draft Kelley? No, but he belongs on all watch lists. No one knows when Cordero will be ready, or if Miguel Batista can return to his 2005 heyday (31 saves), or if anyone else will emerge in the role.

David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners

Packing a heater (94.5 mph average last year) that gets results (9.06 K/9 in 2008) and an 87.2 mph splitter, the 27-year-old Aardsma has a closer's arsenal. If only he could control his walks (6.47 BB/9 last year, 5.60 career). In 2008, several of Aardsma's key ratios (home run-to-flyball and groundball-to-flyball) improved for the second straight season. Aardsma is only worth drafting in the final rounds of AL-only formats, but all fantasy owners should watch him, given his lack of competition (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Mark Lowe, Shawn Kelley, Tyler Walker and Roy Corcoran) in the paper-thin Mariners' bullpen.

Jason Isringhausen, Tampa Bay Rays

True, Isringhausen (elbow) stank in 2008, but his fastball (91.6 mph) and dominance rate (7.59 K/9) suggest there's gas left in his 36-year-old tank. Though he had offseason surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon, he has pitched in spring training games without a hitch. The Rays boast a few eighth-inning studs (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell), but Izzy's credentials (293 career saves, a stellar 2007 campaign) put him in the mix for saves if injury-prone closer Troy Percival falters. Manager Joe Maddon likes to mix things up for save chances if Percy isn't on the mound. That's why Izzy is worth a final-rounds flier in deep mixed formats.

Jose Ceda, Florida Marlins

With his high-90s fastball and mid-80s slider, the 22-year-old Ceda dominated at Double-A Tennessee (12.46 K/9) despite shaky command (4.15 BB/9). Of course, Ceda has yet to pitch above Double-A. A sore shoulder sidelined him for most of spring training, and the Marlins have already sent him to the minors. Unless you're in a keeper or NL league, you need not draft Ceda as a handcuff to closer Matt Lindstrom (shoulder) or setup man Scott Proctor (elbow), who both might miss opening day. Stick with Leo Nunez and Ryan Tucker as final-round insurance policies in NL-only formats, but don't lose track of Ceda just yet.

Michael Wuertz, Oakland Athletics

Wuertz relied far less on his 90.9 mph fastball in 2008 (28.9 percent of pitches) than he had in 2006 (40.3) and 2007 (40.4). Is it mere coincidence, then, that Wuertz's career dominance (9.26 K/9) slumped in 2008 (6.04) while his career line-drive rate (18.2 percent) mushroomed (25.0)? Regardless, if Wuertz can return to pre-2008 effectiveness, he might get save opportunities, given Joey Devine's (elbow) mortal elbow and Brad Ziegler's utter lack of dominance (4.53 K/9). Oakland skipper Bob Geren wasn't afraid to change things up depending on the save situation last season. You shouldn't draft Wuertz, but he belongs on all watch lists if Devine or Ziegler is injured or ineffective.

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