Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Fantasy baseball busts

March 30, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By David Wysocki and Chris Hadorn
Edited by Tim Heaney and Bryce McRae

To win a fantasy baseball league, you need to avoid the biggest busts that could hurt you in fantasy baseball drafts or fantasy baseball auctions. Which busts should be marked off on your fantasy baseball cheat sheets this year?

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Catchers

Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles

Wieters may have Hall of Fame ability, but he's slated to start the year in Triple-A, with a strong chance he won't be called up until late May or June to delay his contractual clock. Veteran Gregg Zaun was brought in to act as a stopgap and mentor to the 22-year-old. Even with a 1.054 minor league on-base-plus-slugging percentage, Wieters will still be subject to the adjustment period major league rookies have. The formula suggests Wieters isn't ready to be your No. 1 catcher on draft day, but he would make a promising No. 2.

First basemen

Chris Davis, Texas Rangers

Don't panic. What's not to love about Davis? He produced a .285-17-55 line in 295 at-bats last season; he has hit for power and a solid average at all levels in the minors. There are still concerns because he strikes out about a quarter of the time or more and doesn't draw many walks. His contact rate is pretty atrocious, too. Davis hits the ball so hard that his average should never be a big issue. However, his batting eye and discipline leave him prone to slumps. He should be good, but those taking a player with so little experience in the first five or six rounds are overvaluing him.

Second basemen

Kazuo Matsui, Houston Astros

After another hobbled, but fairly strong, season for Matsui, some have hope he will build on his strong second half, when he batted .313 with a .914 OPS. His strikeout rate dropped for the second straight year, but he stole 12 fewer bases than in 2007. At 32 years old he hit career highs in batting average (.293) and OPS (.781), fairly underwhelming marks for a career year. With a shallow .395 career slugging, and failing to gain more than 460 at-bats in any of his five seasons, the switch-hitter should be only a late-round desperation move if you need some steals. He doesn't offer much else.

Felipe Lopez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Lopez resurrected his career late in the 2008 season by hitting .385 in 169 at-bats with the St. Louis Cardinals, which helped him earn a starting job with Arizona this year. The switch-hitter attracts fantasy love because of his eligibility at as many as four positions and his history on the basepaths, but he stole only eight bases in 16 attempts last year. A career .262 hitter, Lopez doesn't offer much upside with the bat. It has been three years since he topped double digits in home runs. Don't be fooled by Lopez's small sample size from St. Louis; he's a below-average hitter with dwindling stolen base figures.

Third basemen

Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

With a dearth of upper-echelon third base talent this season the sophomore slugger is flying off draft boards quickly. His 27 homers in 448 rookie at-bats, however, came with a 27.2 percent strikeout rate which tied for the 12thhighest in the game. While 30 homers may seem near a lock, his .272 average and .318 batting average on balls in play lack the same starry glimmer and may even see a drop. Even with a lack of proven talent at third, it isn't hard to believe that Chris Davis (Texas Rangers) or Aramis Ramirez (Chicago Cubs) will equal or outperform Longoria and will be available at a much lower premium. His all-around talent, though, may mean the risk is worth it within the first three rounds.

Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles

Despite raising his slugging percentage in each of the past two seasons and dropping his strikeout percentage last year, Mora should have a hard time building on his resurgent 2008. Incredibly, he hit 23 homers with a .285 average and an .826 OPS last year after batting .232 with a .686 OPS in the first half. He averaged 15 homers and a .274 clip in '06 and '07. With a gimpy hamstring and fresh off shoulder surgery, the 37-year-old will likely fall in that range again. At a power position Mora shouldn't be relied upon. He's an unexciting late-round corner infielder.

Shortstops

Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox

The "Cuban Missile" finished a fine rookie season, batting .290 and belting 21 homers in only 480 at-bats, and his move to shortstop this season has many excited. He struck out very little at 12.7 percent of his at-bats, but he walked almost never at 3.6 percent. The free-swinger didn't qualify but approached top-level numbers of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim outfielder Vladimir Guerrero in swing percentage (59.9) and swings out of the strike-zone (45.5). Though he has a nice power-speed combo, his multipositional eligibility may inflate his value; he's still raw at the dish. In many leagues, he won't gain shortstop eligibility until mid- or late April. Plan accordingly.

Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals

The shortstop managed to have a career year as a 27-year-old rookie last season, batting .325 with a .834 OPS. In six minor league seasons he hit above .300 only twice - both times in just over 200 at-bats. He drew a walk in only 4.1 percent of his at-bats and has actually declined in that category every year and level since 2004. Given his .359 BABIP last season, we can chalk up his high batting average as a little lucky and officially unsustainable. With slightly below average power and stolen base ability, he doesn't offer much for '09 as a risky middle infield option.

Outfielders

Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers

The outfielder's monster 98-run, 130-RBI season was mostly front-heavy as he gave way in the second half (.296-11-35 after .310-21-95 before the break). Still, he posted a solid 21.5 percent line-drive rate and a passable 0.51 walk-to-strikeout ratio, but his 45.6 percent groundball rate may hamper his ceiling for the long ball. He still boasts some untapped potential, but with more proven outfielders like Ryan Braun (Milwaukee Brewers) and Grady Sizemore (Cleveland Indians) also available in the middle of the first round, there's just no need to reach on Hamilton in the top five overall. He's worth a selection at the end of the first round or early second round (optimally the latter), but be sure to back him up with a more proven player.

B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays

Many are hoping offseason shoulder surgery will help Upton reach his potential ... finally. Upton progressed and regressed in 2008. His walk rate increased to 15.4 percent, and he was best in the majors by swinging at only 15 percent of balls out of the zone. He also doubled his stolen base total to 44, but was caught 16 times. On the flip, his power virtually disappeared. He slugged just nine homers, versus 24 in 2007, and posted a sickly .401 slugging percentage. He'll probably miss the first week of the season, and that shoulder problems should be in the front of your mind. There are safer picks within the first two rounds. If he falls farther than that, he's worth a selection.

Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies

The speedy left-hander is what he is: a base stealer with slightly below average power and a pest at the plate. But how high do you draft him? With Victorino you get a fair batting average (.281 career) and a guy who will score runs in front of second baseman Chase Utley and first baseman Ryan Howard. His 73 steals over the past two years have been huge. However, can he have another full, healthy season like he did in '08? His .421 career slugging percentage (.447 in '08) makes it somewhat painful to choose him over one of many in a deep pool of speedy and run-producing outfielders with less certainty but much more upside that you can acquire later on.

Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh Pirates

As a regular he reached career highs in batting average (.276), on-base percentage (.356), slugging (.497) and steals (23) while clubbing 26 homers last year; his strikeout rate fell from 23.4 percent to 15.6. However, his second half saw just seven homers versus 19 in the first, and he hit below .230 in two separate months. Great stolen base success (88.5 percent) and at least mild power keeps him valuable, but he may not be upper-echelon material, especially with a weaker Pittsburgh lineup and coming off of what could've been a career year.

Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals

With an OPS hovering around .850 in the majors and minors and after an incredibly consistent 2008, Ludwick will be a solid play in 2009. However, expecting a .300 average and 40 dingers is romantic at best. The outfielder has posted a 27 percent strikeout rate in the majors, and he has posted mediocre on-base percentages at almost every level. His .375 mark last season was augmented by an unusually high .299 average with a .349 BABIP. In 637 at-bats before '08 he hit just .251 and drew just 54 walks. Don't reach for 2008 output on this pick.

Milton Bradley, Chicago Cubs

The oft-hobbled, and suspended, outfielder accumulated 400 at-bats in a season for just the second time in nine seasons last season by walking up 414 times. He'll be moved out of the DH role into full-time outfield duty in the NL. With a .358 average and 72.7 percent of his homers coming in Arlington, a move out could be devastating, though Wrigley Field isn't exactly pitcher-friendly. His anomalous .396 BABIP led the majors, and he hit just six homers in his final 175 at-bats. It's a risky play for someone who hit only 22 homers in a career, and contract, year.

Xavier Nady, New York Yankees

Despite a drop in strikeout percentage and a slight rise in walk percentage the outfielder is still being shuffled after the Pinstripes acquired bounce-back candidate Nick Swisher this offseason. Despite a power spike, Nady saw his clip crumble after his arrival in the Bronx. His batting eye is still subpar. Swisher should take some time away, possibly producing a platoon role for Nady against lefties, which would cripple X's value. There's too much uncertainty and prospect for a letdown here.

Denard Span, Minnesota Twins

Over six seasons in the minors Span posted just a .715 OPS, and his stolen base percentage was not very impressive at 66.1 percent. He homered once every 200-plus at-bats as well. However, the sophomore had a lot of success upon his call-up last season, hitting .294 with a .387 on-base percentage and a 12.6 percent walk rate, a great indicator. Still, it's hard to imagine him replicating his 25.7 line-drive percentage, and it is hard to imagine him being a legit stolen base threat if he can't sustain his 72 percent thievery success rate from last year. Expect a drop-off in average and don't overpay for swipes that might not show up.

Starting pitchers

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

It's not that Liriano is a poor choice this year; many just believe he can be their No. 1 fantasy starter. If you believe the phenom is back to form based on his incredible second half (8.22 strikeouts per nine innings post-break), hold on. He didn't display the authority he had prior to Tommy John surgery thanks to a drop in velocity, and he's still working to regain the optimal effect of his slider. His second-half rate of home runs allowed per nine (0.96) was also a little worrisome. Liriano should be a great No. 2 fantasy starter; don't overvalue him.

Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians

With a career 4.64 ERA entering 2008, it is not hard to see how the southpaw makes the list. After picking up 22 wins and boasting a 2.54 ERA, the AL Cy Young Award winner is doomed for a slide. His 170-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio was among the best in baseball, but it was more than double his career mark. His career .301 BABIP reveals that the past season was not luck, and his groundball percentage increased 12 percent from 2007, but pitching as an elite starter is not sustainable for the 30-year-old. He could remain solid and grab around 15 to 16 wins, but don't draft him based on '08.

Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees

Recent reports that Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy may seize the No. 5 spot in the Yankees' rotation place Chamberlain's value in limbo. In reality, they're not real threats; however, it serves notice that even the Yanks are aware of the risks involved with Joba. He went 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA, and 75 punchouts in 65 1/3 innings as a starter in 2008, but shoulder issues forced him to scale it back. New York and Chamberlain are both taking measures to avoid injury risk; he'll be skipped sometimes. His 2.31 ERA and 10.58 strikeouts-per-nine rate as a reliever make him valuable in that role also, but drafting him as a top-end starter is risky business.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

King Felix has electric stuff, but he may have taken a step back last season. His ERA fell, but his walk rate increased from 2.51 to 3.59 per nine innings, and his line-drive and flyball rates increased significantly to make up 47.9 percent of batted balls versus 39.2 the year before. While 7.85 strikeouts per nine are solid, they're not elite material. With many strong starting arms in 2009, you can wait on a Hernandez-quality arm a bit longer. Avoid making him your No. 1 fantasy arm, as well.

A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees

The erratic starter is coming off a contract year that happened to be a career year, reaching 18 wins and striking out 231. However, his 1.34 WHIP was above his career 1.28 mark and flyball and line-drive rates rose. Really the biggest difference in 2008 was the fact that Burnett hit a career high in starts with 34 and has reached 200 innings just three times in nine seasons. He will get ample run support in New York, but the added zeros in his new contract don't make him less of an injury risk or translate over to fantasy baseball.

Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox

Despite winning 17 games last year, Floyd's future is suspect. While he owned righties (.659 OPS), he was hammered by lefties (.826). His 3.84 ERA was decent, but his fielding independent pitching ERA was very high at 4.77, representing the fifth highest difference of any starting pitcher last year. Further, his groundball percentage remained low at 41.2 percent and, naturally, pitching in the South Side, he gave up a monstrous 30 bombs. Throw in his below-average 2.07 strikeout-to-walk ratio and an unexceptional 6.32 strikeouts per nine, and you have a pitcher who was possibly a big fluke in 2008.

Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs

We've been through this song and dance far too often. After news of a tear in his shoulder joint this January we should have all put Harden on the back burner. He struck out an incredible 181 in just 148 frames last year, going 10-2 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. However, he has only thrown in 30 games once in a year and 25 just twice in six seasons. It's hard to imagine him coming close to 150 innings with news of injury before the season has even started.

Brett Myers, Philadelphia Phillies

Masking his high ERA and WHIP is typically the strikeout column, where he posted a 10.88 strikeouts per nine as a reliever in 2007 and at least 8.59 in 2005 and 2006. However, last season he dipped in ERA (4.55) and WHIP (1.38) while his strikeout rate per nine fell to 7.72, his lowest rate since 2004. If not for his 3.06 second-half ERA, it could've been much worse; even then, he finished terribly with a 5.23 September ERA. He has reportedly lost a lot of weight and is throwing well, but the days of drafting Myers as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter are over.

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs

A 140-inning increase is problem No. 1 here. Dempster had been a starter in the past, but, regarding problem No. 2, his control experienced a seemingly anomalous improvement last season. Can the 31-year-old sustain his success over another 200-inning season? Will he even last that long? Don't pay for his career year unless you can grab him as a low-end No. 4 or a midrange No. 5 starter. A larger price will leave you dissatisfied.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

He's young. He's gifted. We're not denying that. We'd just be wary of putting too much fantasy stock in a 21-year-old who walked 4.35 batters per nine innings in his first MLB stint. It's never smart to rest your fantasy draft hopes on youth, which is why you'd be overpaying if you take him before the last few rounds of your deep mixed draft. If you're there, and he's there, attack.

Relief pitchers

Huston Street, Colorado Rockies

It's always a little dicey picking up a closer when there's open competition for his job; in Street's case, Manny Corpas is the comp. Street's 1.21 WHIP and 3.73 ERA from last year don't impress, and he has just 34 saves over the past two seasons combined. His strikeout-to-walk ratio nosedived from 5.25 in 2007 to 2.56 last season. A move to Coors Field makes his career flyball percentage of 41.5 too high for comfort. He might seem like a cinch for 25 saves, but with peripherals not suited to his new home and some valid rivalry for the job, success won't come easily for Street. Be extra cautious in 2009.

Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

In recent years, the Angels bullpen has been among the best in baseball and has produced a ton of save chances. It's wrong, however, to assume that Fuentes will merely be a clone of the departed Francisco Rodriguez (New York Mets) when it comes to talent. His 11.78 K rate from last year was his best since 2002, and it's doubtful he can top that. If you're drafting him in the early middle rounds, that's what you're banking on. He had trouble hanging on to the job with the Colorado Rockies, and he has to avoid two save sharks, Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields. He's a midrange No. 2; don't tab him as your No. 1.

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Author Bio

David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

Author Bio

Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.