Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Fantasy baseball sleepers

March 30, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix

To win a fantasy baseball league, you need to pick out the best sleepers that can provide value in fantasy baseball drafts or fantasy baseball auctions. Which sleepers should be highlighted on your fantasy baseball cheat sheets this year?

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Catchers

Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners

After his breakout 2006 season, in which he hit 18 home runs and posted a .291 batting average, Johjima only connected for seven home runs and 39 RBIs in 2008. Last season, despite riding the pine, Johjima experienced upward trends in his line-drive percentage, walk-to-strikeout ratio and contact rate. Although a return to his 2006 power numbers is unlikely, he is an excellent bounce-back candidate in terms of batting average. As he will probably be available in the late rounds, Johjima is worth the gamble, at least as a second catcher.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers

Last season Saltalamacchia posted a .316 batting average for the months of July and August before succumbing to a forearm injury that cost him his September. A terrific performance in the Dominican Winter League highlighted the switch-hitter's big-time power and improved batting eye. At only 23 years old, Saltalamacchia is expected to earn the starting gig to beat out Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez. Salty is an intriguing late-rounder.

First basemen

Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox

Despite battling injuries throughout the better part of the 2008 season, Konerko had a solid ending to it. He hit 13 home runs, recorded 27 RBIs and posted a .294 batting average during the last two months. Thanks to those knee issues, he experienced an unusual dip in flyball percentage, a mark that had been trending upward for him in previous seasons. Although he may be getting up there in years (33 when the season starts), Konerko is still a solid power hitter. He may be passed up to due his injuries and age, but his home run potential could make him a steal in the middle rounds.

NEW - Travis Ishikawa, San Francisco Giants

Called up during the end of last season, the 6-foot-3, 225-pound Ishikawa posted a .296 average and a .345 on-base percentage in 54 September at-bats. Ishikawa's impressive spring, in which he has connected for six home runs, has earned the 25-year-old slugger the starting job at first base and a spot in the middle of the order. Relatively unknown, Ishikawa has a penchant for power (16 homers in 171 at-bats at Triple-a Fresno); that pop makes him worth a pick at the tail end of a deep mixed draft.

Second basemen

Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

The speedy second baseman has posted at least 15 steals in each of his first four major league seasons and hit double-digit homers in three of those years. Though his average leaves much to the imagination, he finished 2008 with a .283 average for the month of September. Also, his 2008 performance saw an improvement in his strikeout rate and contact rate. Still young and loaded with talent, Weeks could become a solid fantasy producer. He is likely feeling some pressure to perform, too, now that the hype has worn off. His upside makes him worthy of a pick early in the final third of a draft.

Emmanuel Burriss, San Francisco Giants

Last season, the 23-year-old speedster swiped 13 bags in 240 at-bats while posting a solid .283 batting average. His 0.96 walk-to-strikeout ratio and excellent contact rate highlight his good plate discipline and batting eye. The aggressive approach on the basepaths of San Fran manager Bruce Bochy will bode well for Burriss, who, in 2007, stole 51 bags in 365 at-bats for Single-A San Jose. His only competition is the injury-prone Kevin Frandsen, who has a low ceiling, and Eugenio Velez, who can't hit. In addition, Burriss has eligibility at shortstop, making him an intriguing late-rounder with a good deal of upside.

Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers

Though he is getting up there in the years (33), the vet has topped a .300 average in three of his last four seasons. He had a decent 2008 line of nine home runs, 58 RBIs, 90 runs and only 43 strikeouts; he posts consistently high contact rates, too. A solid fantasy middle infielder, Polanco's consistent play and Detroit's potent lineup assure a solid batting average and good runs scored totals, respectively, making him a good pick in the late middle rounds.

Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves

After an ice-cold June, July and August, Johnson finished 2008 off with a scorching September, in which he hit three home runs, recorded 19 RBIs and posted an incredible .398 average and 1.071 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) for the month. His exceptional line-drive percentage should continue to bode well for Johnson, who will be batting atop the Braves order. In addition to being a viable source or runs scored, he also has the potential to reach double-digit home runs and steals. Consider him a middle rounder in deep mixed leagues with good upside.

Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays

Hill showed a lot of promise in 2007, posting a solid stat line of 17 jacks, 78 RBIs and a .291 clip. A concussion limited him to only 205 at-bats in 2008, but he looks ready to go for Opening Day. A .284 lifetime hitter with good power and an above-average contact rate, Hill will be batting at the top of the Jays' order, giving him plenty of opportunities to score runs. With Hill being only 27 years old, it appears the best is yet to come, making him worthy of a late-round flier. It's worth seeing if he can keep his flyball rate at its 2007 level.

Mike Fontenot, Chicago Cubs

In only 243 at-bats last season, Fontenot hit nine jacks, recorded 40 RBIs and scored 42 runs. He improved his batting eye while posting a solid line-drive percentage and productive contact rate. Beating out Aaron Miles for the starting job, Fontenot could be batting in the middle of a teeming Cubbies' lineup. A natural hitter with good pop, consider Fontenot a late-rounder in deep mixed leagues. That being said, don't count on him contributing in stolen bases.

NEW - Skip Schumaker, St. Louis Cardinals

A capable leadoff hitter with good baserunning abilities, Schumaker impressed in his first full major league season by posting a .302 average and .359 on-base percentage. Boasting an excellent contact rate and a rising line-drive percentage, Schumaker should score a good amount of runs. His move to second base increases his value, making him a late-rounder in deep mixed leagues.

Third basemen

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

After showcasing his power in his first two major league seasons, Zimmerman was plagued by a shoulder injury during the second half of 2008; however, he negated any lingering concerns surrounding his shoulder by hitting five home runs, recording 14 RBIs and posting a .290 batting average for the month of September. He is a fantastic pure hitter and, at only 24 years old, a still developing talent who should only improve. He's a good pickup near the end of the first third to the beginning of the middle rounds.

Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners

While a repeat of his monster 2004 season may be unlikely, Beltre has averaged 25.3 home runs, 88.3 RBIs, 11 stolen bases and a .270 clip over the past three seasons. Coming off September shoulder and thumb surgeries, he's still a bit sore so far in camp. However, he's in a contract year and is a consistent power hitter. Though he may hurt you in the average column, you should look to draft him in the later part of the middle rounds, but he may fall farther than that.

NEW - Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres

Kouzmanoff posted career highs in almost every major offensive category in his second full season in the majors. Most impressive were his 11 jacks and 38 RBIs at the offensive black hole that is PETCO Park, considering he hit just 12 dingers on the road. At only 27 years old, he is only just beginning to realize his power potential. A solid flyball percentage should continue to bode well for the slugger despite his poor batting eye. Given Kouz's ability to post solid power numbers, look to draft him in the final few rounds as a mixed corner infielder.

Shortstops

Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle Mariners

Betancourt isn't a glamorous option, but he has displayed positive trends with contact and his batting eye in the past couple of seasons. The Mariners have a new skipper - Don Wakamatsu - who plans to emphasize an aggressive approach on the basepaths. Betancourt is once again a good bet to hit around .280 or better, and double-digit steals are more than just a possibility. He has upside you should buy in the last couple of rounds of a deep mixed league.

Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves

Despite battling injuries at the end of 2008, Escobar posted a .357 clip and 1.008 OPS for the month of September. Young and full of talent, Escobar exhibited workable power and a keen batting eye last season, evidenced by a 0.95 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Though not a power hitter in the traditional sense, there are reports that Escobar bulked up during the offseason in hopes of increasing his power numbers. While he won't help you in the speed department, he should put up respectable numbers among bargain fantasy shortstops in the other four categories, making him a mid- to late-rounder.

Khalil Greene, St. Louis Cardinals

Despite not much else going right last season, Greene improved his line-drive and groundball percentages over 2007. The departure from the Padres should bode well for Greene, who will be batting in a far more potent Cardinals' lineup. He's showing signs of his good bat this spring with a .396 clip and 14 RBIs. Also, Greene, who has hit 10 or more home runs for five consecutive seasons (15-plus in each of the four before last year), should be able to smack a few more longballs at Busch Stadium as compared to the ever-stingy PETCO Park. Look to draft him in the late rounds in mixed leagues.

Outfielders

Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers

Granderson broke out with a spectacular 2007 season in which he hit 23 home runs, recorded 74 RBIs, stole 26 bags and scored 122 runs while posting a .302 batting average. After missing most of April last season with a broken finger, he returned and batted .324 or above for only two of the final five months. His contact rate, batting eye and flyball rate (potential for home runs) all have steadily grown. Though his numbers declined a bit last season, this five-tool player has tremendous upside and is worthy of targeting as an undervalued outfielder with No. 1 potential in the first four rounds.

Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies

Though it took some time for the 29-year-old to develop (thanks to injuries), Werth showcased his abilities last season, hitting 24 home runs and recording 67 RBIs while stealing 20 bases. In addition to playing in a dangerous lineup and hitter-friendly ballpark, Werth has exhibited a steadily improving contact rate; his solid offensive production should continue thanks to the Phils' backing of his aggressive approach. He is far from being a big-name player, so he could be available as a No. 4 outfielder with No. 3 potential.

Delmon Young, Minnesota Twins

The former first overall draft pick showcased his tremendous bat speed and power in his 2007 rookie season. His 2008 performance with the Twins saw a dip in his power numbers; however, his comfort on the bags and batting eye slightly improved. He spent much of last year using an inside-out swing, which sapped his pop. He tweaked his approach, and after not hitting his first homer until June 7, he hit nine more to finish the year. Expectations for his first two full seasons were too high for a player his age. However, as the 23-year-old's body develops, so will his power, making him a mid- to late-rounder as a bargain No. 5 outfielder with a chance to perform as a No. 3.

Starting pitchers

Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins

Slowey pitched admirably during 2008, his first full season in the majors. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA for two of the five months of the season. His August performance (2.92 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while fanning 37 batters and walking only two) highlighted his impressive pitch control and command. While not a dominant pitcher, Slowey has the command to help keep his ERA respectable. Consider him in the middle rounds, where he would fit well as a weak No. 3 or strong No. 4 starting pitcher.

Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves

A shift to the traditionally weaker league and the more pitcher-friendly Turner Field should help the flamethrower after a 2008 season in which he posted a 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Despite iffy ratios, he has averaged a solid 3.72 walk-to-strikeout ratio over the past two seasons. He has also topped 200 strikeouts in each of the past two seasons. Dominant and dependable (200-plus innings in eight of the last nine years), Vazquez should be drafted in the middle rounds as a solid No. 2 starter that you may be able to grab as a No. 3.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

He's battling shoulder issues this spring, but if healthy, he might be a steal. Weaver finished 2008 strong, posting a 3.57 ERA in September while allowing no home runs and striking out 19 batters in 17 2/3 innings. He also posted a combined 3.35 ERA in June and July. His endurance was an issue last season (he averaged only 5.89 innings per game in his 30 starts), so he will pitch sparingly during spring training in order to conserve his arm. He has above-average control and has cut down on his flyball percentage since 2006. Look to draft him in the late middle rounds as a No. 4 starter with decent upside.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves

One of the best groundball pitchers in the game, Lowe exhibited good control once again last season. He finished 2008 off strong, posting a 0.59 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP and a .162 opponents' average for the month of September. His ability to keep the ball in the park will be further nurtured at favorable Turner Field. The sinkerball pitcher has also reached 199 innings or more in each of the past four seasons. Consider Lowe a stable low-end No. 3 starter who you can grab towards the end of the middle rounds.

Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners

Bedard's 221 strikeouts in 2007 proved the Canuck has nasty stuff, but injuries nagged him all last season. When on the mound, Bedard used a sneaky fastball and excellent curve to record 72 strikeouts and post a 3.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 81 innings. Though he has fully recovered from offseason shoulder surgery, sore buttocks held Bedard out of his last spring training start; he's expected to return to the mound Monday, March 16. When healthy, he offers a lot of strikeouts, solid command and potential for a Cy Young-caliber season, making him worthy of a pick in the middle rounds with a lot of upside, especially at that price.

Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers

Boasting a fastball in the low 90s and a nasty splitter, Parra posted a solid 7.97 strikeout rate and a 51.6 percent groundball rate last season. While he has the markings of a dominant pitcher, Parra had issues with his control last season. He also suffered from a .337 BABIP, which may or may not be typical for him - he hasn't established a meaningful pattern yet. In his third year in the majors and at age 26, a prime breakout year for pitchers, Parra could become a dominant force on the mound if he can put it all together. Look to snag the lefty in the late rounds.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies

Jimenez's high-90s heat and meandering curve led to a strikeout rate of 7.79 per nine innings last season. Though his control was an issue, he improved his flyball and groundball percentages. Jimenez finished the season off strong, posting a 2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a .182 opponents' average for the month of September. Given his solid array of pitches and his potential to rack up strikeouts, look to draft Jimenez as a No. 5 starter.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals

Last year in farm ball Zimmermann, the Nats' prized pitching prospect, posted an impressive 9.00 cumulative strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .228 average at Double-A Harrisburg. Prior to his last spring outing, in which he gave up five runs in two innings, Zimmermann struck out 16 and walked only two in 12 1/3 scoreless innings. While he is making a strong case to join Washington's rotation, the Nats don't want to push it if the rising star isn't ready. If you're looking for a "Why not?" selection, he is definitely worth a late pick in deep mixed leagues a la young Atlanta Braves starter Tommy Hanson.

NEW - Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

In 2007 Escobar posted near-career bests in ERA and WHIP for a full season as a starter; he also accrued his second-best strikeout total. A shoulder injury sidelined him for all of the 2008 season, but he made a significant return by retiring 10 batters in a Double-A Scottsdale game played Saturday, March 28. With his fastball reaching the mid-90s during spring training, Escobar is far surpassing the expectations of a midseason return; however, he definitely won't be ready for Opening Day. His shoulder issues and early absence will scare off a lot of managers on draft day, but his superb abilities make him a great late-round mixed pick and a promising stash option in AL drafts.

Relief pitchers

Joel Hanrahan, Washington Nationals

After a series of scary starts in 2007, Hanrahan was converted last year to closer, where he performed well, if not spectacularly. A fastball and slider pitcher, he posted 9.92 strikeouts per nine innings while recording nine saves. In August of last season he notched seven saves while posting a 2.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a .230 opponents' average. Hanny took to the role well after ditching his changeup. Though there's a chance he could be pushed for the job, his strikeout potential makes him worthy of being drafted as a No. 3 closer in the beginning of the late rounds.

Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks

After posting a 1.21 post-break ERA, Qualls was named the closer in September and converted seven saves while posting a spotless ERA and a 0.46 WHIP. For the season he boasted a 2.81 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, with 71 strikeouts and only 18 walks in 73 2/3 innings pitched. His solid 2.53 groundball-to-flyball ratio should continue to bode well for him at the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Though Qualls would fit best as a No. 3 closer, he has the upside to perform as a No. 2 if he can continue his 2008 post-break dominance.

Manny Corpas, Colorado Rockies

After a spectacular 2007 campaign in which he recorded 19 saves and posted a 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, Corpas had some issues early last season. He was able to turn things around by posting a solid 2.48 ERA from June through August. He dropped some weight during the offseason and is working to fix a flaw in the arm angle of his delivery. As he is currently battling for the closer role with Huston Street, he may be worth a late-round pick in mixed league drafts. This opportunity to be the closer gives him plenty of upside that others may overlook.

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Author Bio

Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.