Impact Analysis: New York Yankees outfield

March 3, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Gregory Sadikoff
Edited by Tim Heaney

As if the New York Yankees didn't have enough to worry about this offseason - i.e., their failure to reach the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons and third baseman Alex Rodriguez's steroids scandal - they have no clear-cut center fielder and counting on an overachieving right fielder going into spring training.

With the acquisition of first baseman Mark Teixeira, the Yankees stirred up what could develop into a competition for right field between outfielder Xavier Nady and ousted first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher. While it looks as if Nady is the favorite to get the starting nod, Swisher's power and ability to get on base should warrant ample playing time.

The battle for center field between outfielders Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner looks to be an interesting one as both youngsters have exhibited some pretty good (and pretty poor) characteristics. Also determined to get in the mix is minor league outfielder Austin Jackson, the stellar prospect who has drawn comparisons to Tampa Bay Rays outfielder B.J. Upton, among others.

Although his contract expires after this season, left field is secured by outfielder Johnny Damon; however, persistent leg injuries and his gung-ho style of play mean there is a chance he could miss some time.

Nady

Boasting good power and the ability to hit for a decent average, X's outstanding play last season with the Pittsburgh Pirates brought him to a Yankees team trying to make a push for the playoffs. In 327 at-bats with the Bucs, Nady hit 13 home runs, recorded 57 RBIs, scored 50 runs and posted an impressive .330 batting average and .919 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS).

After the move to the more hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, Nady actually struggled a bit. In 228 at-bats he recorded 40 RBIs, scored 26 runs and batted .268 with a .794 OPS; these numbers were impacted by a September skid (.223 clip) as the club disappeared from playoff contention. Despite the drop-off in production, Nady still connected for 12 jacks in Pinstripes.

In total, 2008 was offensively Nady's best season. He posted career highs in at-bats, runs, home runs, RBIs, batting average, OPS and line-drive percentage. A repeat of such a high-caliber season will be tough, meaning Nady may see a decline in production.

It is interesting to note that although the right-handed Nady has historically hit better against left-handers, last season he hit .317 against righties and .262 against lefties. This could bode well for the Yankees (and Nady's playing time) as the Yankees have Damon, Gardner, switch-hitter Teixeira, designated hitter Hideki Matsui and second baseman Robinson Cano all swinging from the left side.

Despite how well he plays, Nady may not finish 2009 as the Yanks' right fielder, or as a Yankee at all - a decision that rests with general manager Brian Cashman. A free agent after the 2009 season, Nady was shopped by Cashman during the offseason. Despite receiving considerable interest, the Yankees never received a viable offer; however, that could definitely change before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

Swisher

An enigma at the plate, Swisher exhibits extreme discipline, a veteran batting eye, and good power from both sides of the dish - but he lacks the ability to make good contact, leading to a copious strikeout rate.

Last season with the Chicago White Sox, Swisher hit 24 home runs and drew 82 walks but struck out 135 times. In addition, he posted a lowly .219 batting average and .743 OPS, both career lows. On the plus side, he saw an increase over 2007 in line-drive percentage and decrease in groundball percentage.

Part of Swisher's disappointing season can be attributed to plain old bad luck, as evidenced by his BABIP, which ranked fourth lowest among all qualified hitters. A statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit, BABIP is based more on a hitter's luck rather than skill. Therefore, it is likely that Swisher's abnormally low BABIP will improve next season and with it, so will his overall line.

Swisher, who averaged 26 home runs over the past four seasons, could see a dip in his power numbers as he will no longer be playing at the Chicago White Sox's uber-hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. However, Yankee Stadium still favors lefty power bats, so it might not be that big of a drop.

Even if he doesn't get the starting nod, Swisher he will see plenty of action as he is able to play any position in the outfield. He will also serve as a backup to Teixeira. Like Nady, Swisher was the subject of trade talks during the offseason, so the Yankees may look to move him before the trade deadline.

Gardner

If you could steal first base, Gardner may have one day made a run at Hugh Nicol's 122-year-old record of 138 swiped bags in one season (they weren't counted as a stat back then). Unfortunately for Gardner, this isn't and probably never will be a MLB rule.

Hands down one of the fastest players in baseball, Gardner stole 13 bases in only 127 at-bats last season with the Yankees. While no one doubts his speed, there is plenty of doubt surrounding the youngster's ability to reach base. A 23.6 percent strikeout rate compared to a 5.9 percent walk rate is horrid, especially considering Gardner is a leadoff-hitter type.

With so few major league at-bats, all is not lost for the speedy Southerner. He posted a .290 average and a significantly better 0.81 walk-to-strikeout ratio in the minors. Gardner is still adjusting to the speed of the big leagues, and as he gains more at-bats, he should continue to mature and improve slightly. In fact, his improvement was visible at the end of last season, as he hit .294 in his final 68 at-bats.

One area he did very well in last season was his contact rate. He made contact on 89.9 percent of his swings, well above the estimated league average of 80. Combined with an improved batting eye and plate discipline, his high contact rate could equate to a healthy on-base percentage.

His lack of any sort of power is not too distressing considering his game revolves around speed, but he must improve his average against southpaws as well as when playing at Yankee Stadium. Also, his lack of arm strength could definitely hurt him when it comes time to choose a starting center fielder.

Cabrera

A jack of all trades, but a master of none, Cabrera can run and hit, just not particularly well. Since his first full season in the majors, 2008 brought career lows in at-bats, runs, hits, RBIs, batting average and OPS. Like Swisher, he was a victim of an abnormally low BABIP, as compared to his lifetime average.

After a decent 2007, Melky regressed in 2008, hitting only eight home runs but recording a paltry 37 RBIs. His .249 batting average and .641 OPS were also nothing to smile about.

The Yankees were thrilled with his 2008 winter ball performance. He hit .312 with a .393 on-base percentage. He also drew 13 walks and only struck out 14 times. With three full seasons under his belt, these are the sort of numbers the Yankees are hoping the "Melk Man" can deliver.

Understanding that the competition at center field will be tough, Cabrera hired a personal trainer to better prepare him for the season. Not only did he cut down on his body fat, but he worked on his swing as well - both should definitely help out the 24-year-old.

Furthering his stock is his ability to switch hit and line balls into the gaps with regularity; however, to become a solid producer he needs to become more assertive at the plate. He also has an excellent gun, making him a better choice defensively for the Yankees than the spaghetti-armed Gardner.

Keep an eye out

The team's top prospect, Jackson has all the tools to be the next big thing in baseball. Comparable to B.J. Upton, Jackson combines solid power and good speed with an uncanny sense of athleticism. Last season while playing for Double-A Trenton Thunder, Austin hit nine home runs, recorded 69 RBIs, scored 75 runs and stole 19 bags while posting a .285 average.

Though he will probably start the season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, if Gardner and Cabrera fail to produce, the Yankees could turn to their star prospect. With only three at-bats at the Triple-A level, he may lack the experience, so his major league debut may not come till later, if at all, during 2009. Next year is a safer bet.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Nady serves as a No. 5 fantasy outfielder. As he has become more familiar with playing for the Yanks, look for his 2008 struggles to subside; however, in general, last year's performance may cause him to be a bit overvalued.

Swisher could be saved for the post-draft pool in mixed leagues, as his playing time is unknown heading into this season. Since he should at least minimally bounce back after a dismal 2008 season, Swisher should garner some attention from AL-only players; he could be a valuable bench option because of his positional versatility.

If Gardner can lock down center field, he will be a fantastic source of speed. Despite his lack of power and experience, he would be worthy of an in-season pickup that could help you if you are trailing in stolen bases.

As Cabrera really doesn't shine in any single category, he should also be left in the free-agent pool in mixed leagues. With the work he put in during the offseason and the solid numbers posted in winter ball, keep an eye out for him in AL games.

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Gregory Sadikoff
Gregory Sadikoff is a KFFL contributor who has been involved in fantasy sports, mainly football and baseball, since 2004. In addition to being a die-hard Colts fan, Gregory enjoys analyzing the statistics behind his favorite players and teams.

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