Impact Analysis: Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians

December 17, 2008 @ 01:00:00

By Thomas Griffenkranz
Edited by Herija C. Green

Last season, Cleveland Indians catcher Victor Martinez was one of fantasy baseball's biggest disappointments. Martinez was coming off a 2007 season in which he set career highs in both home runs (25) and RBIs (114) and was rated as one of the top fantasy catchers, getting selected in the middle portion of the third round on average.

Martinez struggled through the first few months of the 2008 season before it was revealed he had an elbow injury that would require arthroscopic surgery, shutting him down in mid-June for more than two months.

Power outage?

Taking a look at the numbers it is easy to see why fantasy owners were disappointed with Martinez.

Table: Martinez's hitting statistics - 2007 vs. 2008

Year	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SLG	AVG
2007	147	562	78	169	25	114	.505	.301
2008	73	266	30	74	2	35	.365	.278

Martinez did not hit his first home run until September and had major drop-offs in numbers across the board. Before going on the disabled list in June, Martinez had a slugging percentage of just .333, 129 points below his career mark. Many believed Martinez was entering the prime of his career and poised to stake his claim as the top catcher in fantasy baseball. Owners were left scratching their heads as Martinez struggled through April, May and the beginning of June.

Can Martinez bounce back in 2009?

After returning from elbow surgery in late August, Martinez, as well as the Indians, had to be encouraged with the way the former All-Star played.

Table: Martinez's 2008 hitting statistics, pre- and post-disabled list

--	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SLG	AVG
Before DL	54	198	17	55	0	21	.333	.278
After DL	19	68	13	19	2	14	.456	.279

Clearly Martinez was a different player after he returned. His slugging numbers were on par with his career totals, and he scored almost as many in runs in roughly one-third of the at-bats. Before the injury, Martinez was averaging one RBI every 9.4 at-bats and once he returned he improved to one RBI every 4.9 at-bats.

In the absence of Martinez, catcher Kelly Shoppach emerged as a solid major league player. In just 352 at-bats, Shoppach hit 21 home runs and drove in 55 runs. With Martinez healthy, it may be harder for Shoppach to get into the lineup. Recent reports suggest Indians manager Eric Wedge may use Martinez at first base and designated hitter in order to get both players in the game. There were rumblings early in the offseason that Shoppach could be traded for some young pitching, though that appears unlikely now that the team has made a couple moves to shore up their bullpen.

Fantasy baseball outlook

After quieting some concerns in the last month of 2008, Martinez appears ready to return as top fantasy catcher, albeit with some risk. If the Indians keep Shoppach and give Martinez time at first base and designated hitter, it should help keep him healthy and productive throughout 2009.

Heading into this season Martinez should definitely not be the first catcher taken, and you should wait until the middle rounds to select him. It's never a good idea to spend a high pick on a catcher anyway, but newfound concerns surrounding V-Mart's health and Shoppach's potential impact on his playing time make that an even shakier decision.

Still, his career numbers are very good for the position, meaning once catchers start to come off the board someone is very likely to select him. You shouldn't reach for Martinez unless he's still available in the eighth round or later. Instead, let someone else take the risk and fill other positions early in your draft, addressing the catcher position later with players like the Pittsburgh Pirates' Ryan Doumit or the Colorado Rockies' Chris Iannetta.

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Thomas Griffenkranz
Thomas has been a KFFL contributor since 2007.

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